Repasse das variações cambiais para os preços de exportação: Brasil, 1993 – 2004
Após 1994, com a criação do Real, os efeitos que as variações cambiais exercem na Balança Comercial brasileira passaram a ser alvo de constantes estudos. A análise do repasse de variações cambiais nos preços de exportação é empregada com a finalidade de examinar as relações entre variações cambiais...
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Universidade Federal de Viçosa
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|Citação:||CRUZ JÚNIOR, José César. Repasse das variações cambiais para os preços de exportação: Brasil, 1993 – 2004. 2004. 92 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia Aplicada) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa. 2004.|
|Resumo inglês:||After 1994, with the creation of Real, the effects of exchange rate changes on Brazilian Trade Balance became the target of many researches. The analysis of the exchange rate pass through to export prices aimed to verify the relations between exchange rate variations and price fixation rules of national export sectors. Such analysis allows determining the competitiveness of those sectors into the worldwide scenery and is an important factor to determine the prices of exported products. The aims of this research consisted in determining the value of the exchange rate pass through to the export prices of ten selected Brazilian economic sectors and review the exchange rate policies adopted from the third quarter of 1993 to the first quarter, 2004. Panel data and Kalman Filter methods were used to make the estimations. The outcomes indicate an incomplete pass through. The fixed values estimated show a low competitive power of the export sectors, indicating that, especially into the initial period, even during exchange rate devaluations, almost all sectors did not enjoy the benefits they could have in such circumstances. The low competitive power of those sectors in the international market and the increasing inflation rates prevented the expansion of exporters profit margins and embarrassed the realignment of internal and external prices. It was verified that polices that aimed exportation improvement by exchange rate devaluations did not have the best result at improving the Trade Balance. However, it was verified that the Real Plan had strong influence on stabilization of the coefficient of all analyzed sectors. In spite of not having been verified a strong straight effect from exchange rate devaluations on export prices, they seem to have exercised a big impact above the volume of exports, since the Trade Balance reverted, from 2002 on, the deficit generated during the 90 s. It was concluded that economic policies that aimed the benefits of export growth by relative prices changes, are not sufficient to make the domestic export sectors more competitive into international market.|