Economic policies in Brazil : essays on monetary policy and labor market dynamics

• Ano de defesa: 2022
• Autor(a) principal: Ribeiro, Gustavo de Paula
• Orientador(a): Teles, Vladimir Kuhl
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: eng
• Palavras-chave em Português: Política econômica; Política monetária; Política tributária; Mercado de trabalho; COVID-19; Choques de oferta; Choques de demanda
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: DSGE Models; HANK; Economic policy; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Labor market; Supply shocks; Demand shocks
• Link de acesso: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/32261

This thesis brings two essays on economic policy. The first one studies whether the imposition of an expenditure ceiling affected monetary policy effectiveness in Brazil, since recent models with heterogeneous agents show that fiscal policy is an important transmission channel for monetary policy. First, we estimate a dynamic model factor, finding empirical evidence for a fiscal policy response to a monetary policy shock. Afterwards, a simulation exercise with heterogeneous households is presented, corroborating the idea that the way public expenditures react to monetary policy affects its overall effect on output. In the second essay, we decompose labor market movements in Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemics. The policy response to the health crisis produced a series of disruptions that led to large swings in economic activity and in the labor market. We implement a Bayesian Structural VAR in order to decompose labor market movements into supply and demand shocks, an important exercise in order to better design and implement economic policies not only during the crisis, but also afterwards. We find that the majority of movements in employment are traced back to supply shocks. By December 2021, employment level was still bellow its pre-pandemic level, still held down by factors attributed to supply.