Previdência Social Brasileira após a transição demográfica: Uma análise a partir do equilíbrio político-econômico

• Ano de defesa: 2017
• Autor(a) principal: Sousa, Cinthia Barbosa
• Orientador(a): Alencar, Frederico Augusto Gomes de
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Palavras-chave em Português: Equilíbrio político-econômico; Previdência Social; Transição demográfica
• Link de acesso: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/26001

This dissertation, based on a model of overlapping generations with a probabilistic voting configuration, aims to determine the political-economic balance of the Brazilian Social Security system after projected demographic transition and to analyze consumer welfare and voter preferences as to intergenerational redistribution policies (reduction of benefits and increase of social security rates) to maintain the sustainability of this system. After calibration for the national economic environment, simulations are made of the social security contribution rate and the equilibrium results. As a result, the following findings stand out: i) a closed solution suggests that the projected demographic transition gradually raises the value of the social security tax rate. ii) The political process, in determining the value of the endogenous social security tax, manages to maintain the proportion of consumption among the generations of the elderly and young people, but cannot subsidize eventual loss of the income of the young people due to the social security contribution. iii) there was a gradual fall in the labor supply.