Análise do binômio risco-retorno como ferramenta de apoio à tomada de decisão do investidor na integração lavoura-pecuária-floresta

• Ano de defesa: 2018
• Autor(a) principal: Marques, Eluardo de Oliveira
• Orientador(a): Figueiredo, Reginaldo Santana
• Banca de defesa: Figueiredo, Reginaldo Santana, Souza, Cleonice Borges de, Muniz, Luciano Cavalcante
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Goiás
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa de Pós-graduação em Agronegócio (EA)
• Departamento: Escola de Agronomia - EA (RG)
• País: Brasil
• Palavras-chave em Português: Risco-retorno; Diversificação; Sistemas agroflorestais
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Risk-return; Diversification; Agroforestry systems
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA
• Link de acesso: http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/9692

The agribusiness sector, which is responsible for a significant contribution to the Brazilian trade balance surplus, presents some specificities such as the self-risk degree associated with production. With this, it is evident the need for studies that aim to maximize the use of physical and financial resources, so that the producer can obtain better economic returns in the agricultural activity. Integrated production systems are an alternative for producers, since by diversifying agricultural and livestock production in the same area through rotation and consortium, they increase their chances of higher returns and minimize the effect of possible losses related to crop failures. harvest, for example. Secondary data, historical series of prices and production costs for each of the activities studied were made available by the Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of the State of Goiás (FAEG), Institute for the Strengthening of Agriculture in Goiás (IFAG) FUTURE developed by the Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil (CNA) and National Rural Apprenticeship Service (SENAR), in addition to other partners. The methodology was applied in the application of linear programming in the light of Henry Markowitz's Portfolio Theory to identify options on optimal combinations of resource allocation and area in crop-livestock-forest integration (ILPF) projects. The data generated by the application of the linear programming methodology led to the formation of 4 portfolios referring to the 4 activities studied, which presented different combination options on which proportion of areas and which proportion of resources to allocate to each activity. Portfolio 4 was the one that presented the best cost-benefit ratio among those studied, with an expected return of 1.54% at an associated risk of only 0.15%. This portfolio, made up of eucalyptus and cattle breeding, presented the following proportion in the distribution, respectively, of 85% and 15% (areas) and 91% and 9% (resources). Therefore, we can infer that the tool of linear programming through the application of the theory of Portfolio can be adopted when studying integration projects and must be adapted to each type and profile of project and investor.