Simulações probabilísticas para identificação de oportunidades de investimento no mercado acionário

Detalhes bibliográficos
Ano de defesa: 2021
Autor(a) principal: Sena, Victor Hugo de
Orientador(a): Maialy, André Cury
Banca de defesa: Não Informado pela instituição
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
Idioma: por
Instituição de defesa: Não Informado pela instituição
Programa de Pós-Graduação: Não Informado pela instituição
Departamento: Não Informado pela instituição
País: Não Informado pela instituição
Palavras-chave em Português:
Fluxos de caixa
ARMA(p, q)
Simulações probabilísticas
Palavras-chave em Inglês:
Free cash flow
Probabilistic simulations
Link de acesso: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31310
Resumo: This work studies a technique that uses probabilistic simulations in conjunction with an autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) to determine whether investing in a given stock is attractive to the investor (surpasses the opportunity cost). First, we use the ARMA model to project free cash flows to equity. Next, we find the minimum acceptable share price for the investment to be attractive to the investor and, through probabilistic simulations, we determine the probability of the investment surpassing the investor’s opportunity cost. This research used, as input for its application in a real case, data provided by the company Quantum Axis. The company chosen was Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSNA3).
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spelling Sena, Victor Hugo deEscolas::EESPPinto, Afonso de CamposCipparrone, Flavio Almeida de MagalhãesMaialy, André Cury2021-11-22T22:15:52Z2021-11-22T22:15:52Z2021-10-26https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31310This work studies a technique that uses probabilistic simulations in conjunction with an autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) to determine whether investing in a given stock is attractive to the investor (surpasses the opportunity cost). First, we use the ARMA model to project free cash flows to equity. Next, we find the minimum acceptable share price for the investment to be attractive to the investor and, through probabilistic simulations, we determine the probability of the investment surpassing the investor’s opportunity cost. This research used, as input for its application in a real case, data provided by the company Quantum Axis. The company chosen was Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSNA3).Este trabalho estuda uma técnica que utiliza simulações probabilísticas em conjunto com um modelo autorregressivo de médias móveis (ARMA) para determinar se o investimento em uma determinada ação é atrativo ao investidor (supera o custo de oportunidade). Primeiramente, utilizamos o modelo ARMA para projetar os fluxos de caixa para o acionista. Na sequência, encontramos o valor mínimo aceitável da ação para que o investimento seja atrativo para o investidor e, através de simulações probabilísticas, determinamos a probabilidade do investimento superar o custo de oportunidade do investidor. Esta pesquisa utilizou, como insumo para sua aplicação em um caso real, dados fornecidos pela empresa Quantum Axis. A empresa escolhida foi a Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSNA3).porFree cash flowProbabilistic simulationsFluxos de caixaARMA(p, q)Simulações probabilísticasFinançasInvestimentos - AnáliseAções (Finanças) - PreçosFluxo de caixaProbabilidadesModelos econométricosSimulações probabilísticas para identificação de oportunidades de investimento no mercado acionárioinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVTHUMBNAILDissertação_Victor_Hugo_de_Sena.pdf.jpgDissertação_Victor_Hugo_de_Sena.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg1593http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br:80/dspace/bitstream/10438/31310/4/Disserta%c3%a7%c3%a3o_Victor_Hugo_de_Sena.pdf.jpg8279146df94381226e84e179298786f8MD54TEXTDissertação_Victor_Hugo_de_Sena.pdf.txtDissertação_Victor_Hugo_de_Sena.pdf.txtExtracted 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Simulações probabilísticas para identificação de oportunidades de investimento no mercado acionário
title Simulações probabilísticas para identificação de oportunidades de investimento no mercado acionário
spellingShingle Simulações probabilísticas para identificação de oportunidades de investimento no mercado acionário
Sena, Victor Hugo de
Free cash flow
Probabilistic simulations
Fluxos de caixa
ARMA(p, q)
Simulações probabilísticas
Finanças
Investimentos - Análise
Ações (Finanças) - Preços
Fluxo de caixa
Probabilidades
Modelos econométricos
title_short Simulações probabilísticas para identificação de oportunidades de investimento no mercado acionário
title_full Simulações probabilísticas para identificação de oportunidades de investimento no mercado acionário
title_fullStr Simulações probabilísticas para identificação de oportunidades de investimento no mercado acionário
title_full_unstemmed Simulações probabilísticas para identificação de oportunidades de investimento no mercado acionário
title_sort Simulações probabilísticas para identificação de oportunidades de investimento no mercado acionário
author Sena, Victor Hugo de
author_facet Sena, Victor Hugo de
author_role author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EESP
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv Pinto, Afonso de Campos
Cipparrone, Flavio Almeida de Magalhães
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Sena, Victor Hugo de
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Maialy, André Cury
contributor_str_mv Maialy, André Cury
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Free cash flow
Probabilistic simulations
topic Free cash flow
Probabilistic simulations
Fluxos de caixa
ARMA(p, q)
Simulações probabilísticas
Finanças
Investimentos - Análise
Ações (Finanças) - Preços
Fluxo de caixa
Probabilidades
Modelos econométricos
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Fluxos de caixa
ARMA(p, q)
Simulações probabilísticas
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Finanças
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Investimentos - Análise
Ações (Finanças) - Preços
Fluxo de caixa
Probabilidades
Modelos econométricos
description This work studies a technique that uses probabilistic simulations in conjunction with an autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) to determine whether investing in a given stock is attractive to the investor (surpasses the opportunity cost). First, we use the ARMA model to project free cash flows to equity. Next, we find the minimum acceptable share price for the investment to be attractive to the investor and, through probabilistic simulations, we determine the probability of the investment surpassing the investor’s opportunity cost. This research used, as input for its application in a real case, data provided by the company Quantum Axis. The company chosen was Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSNA3).
publishDate 2021
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2021-11-22T22:15:52Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2021-11-22T22:15:52Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2021-10-26
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31310
url https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31310
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
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dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
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instname_str Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
instacron_str FGV
institution FGV
reponame_str Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
collection Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
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