O mercado de caminhões no Brasil: um estudo econométrico dos determinantes das vendas de veículos
Ano de defesa: | 2016 |
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Autor(a) principal: | |
Orientador(a): | |
Banca de defesa: | |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Idioma: | por |
Instituição de defesa: |
Não Informado pela instituição
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Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Não Informado pela instituição
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Departamento: |
Não Informado pela instituição
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País: |
Não Informado pela instituição
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Palavras-chave em Português: | |
Palavras-chave em Inglês: | |
Link de acesso: | http://hdl.handle.net/10438/17541 |
Resumo: | This is a study on the demand for new trucks in Brazil from 1996 to 2015, and an investigation on the factors that influence it. This topic is relevant due to the scarcity of studies concerning the subject, and due to the overwhelming domination of trucks in cargo transport in Brazil. It aims identify and quantify the variables that drive the sales of trucks. To reach this goal, econometric models were constructed based on secondary data. Variables usually adopted in other studies on automotive demand were confirmed and even refined and new variables were successfully introduced. This study innovates by identifying three groups of variables, and by detailing the effects and the lags of their influence: variables specific to the truck market, variables related to GDP, and variables related to the decision maker’s confidence. Additionally, a causality analysis involving credit and truck sales was performed, unexpectedly resulting in sales causing credit. Through these results, this study disseminates knowledge about the behavior of the truck market to the entire productive chain, contributing to evolve the quality of decisions and the efficiency of the entire system. |
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Gonçalves, Carlos Aurélio BustamanteEscolas::EAESPSamartini, André Luiz SilvaBarbosa, KlênioOliveira, Antonio Carlos Manfredini da Cunha2016-12-02T18:40:07Z2016-12-02T18:40:07Z2016-11-17GONÇALVES, Carlos Aurélio Bustamante. O mercado de caminhões no Brasil: um estudo econométrico dos determinantes das vendas de veículos. Dissertação (Mestrado Profissional em Administração de Empresas) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2016.http://hdl.handle.net/10438/17541This is a study on the demand for new trucks in Brazil from 1996 to 2015, and an investigation on the factors that influence it. This topic is relevant due to the scarcity of studies concerning the subject, and due to the overwhelming domination of trucks in cargo transport in Brazil. It aims identify and quantify the variables that drive the sales of trucks. To reach this goal, econometric models were constructed based on secondary data. Variables usually adopted in other studies on automotive demand were confirmed and even refined and new variables were successfully introduced. This study innovates by identifying three groups of variables, and by detailing the effects and the lags of their influence: variables specific to the truck market, variables related to GDP, and variables related to the decision maker’s confidence. Additionally, a causality analysis involving credit and truck sales was performed, unexpectedly resulting in sales causing credit. Through these results, this study disseminates knowledge about the behavior of the truck market to the entire productive chain, contributing to evolve the quality of decisions and the efficiency of the entire system.Este estudo trata do comportamento da demanda por caminhões novos no Brasil no período de 1996 a 2015 e da investigação dos fatores que a influenciam. Tal questão é relevante devido à escassez de estudos acerca deste tema, ainda que se trate do modo historicamente predominante de transporte de carga no país. O objetivo de pesquisa é determinar e quantificar os fatores que provocam o aumento ou diminuição das vendas de caminhão no Brasil. Para atingir este objetivo, foram construídos modelos econométricos a partir de dados secundários. Proxies utilizadas em outros modelos de demanda automotiva foram confirmadas e refinadas, enquanto novas proxies foram introduzidas com sucesso. Quanto aos resultados, este estudo inovou ao identificar três tipos de determinantes, e ao detalhar os efeitos e defasagens de suas influências: variáveis relacionadas especificamente ao mercado de caminhões, variáveis relacionadas ao PIB e variáveis relacionadas à confiança do comprador. Adicionalmente, realizou-se uma verificação da causalidade entre crédito e vendas, com o surpreendente resultado de que a influência ocorre no sentido de vendas para crédito. Com estes resultados, este estudo dissemina o conhecimento a respeito do comportamento do mercado a toda a cadeia produtiva, melhorando a qualidade das decisões e proporcionando aumento da eficiência para o sistema como um todo.porMercado de caminhõesDemanda veicularEstudo econométrico de demandaDemanda de caminhões no BrasilVendas de caminhõesDemanda de veículos comerciais de cargaModelo econométrico de demanda de caminhões no BrasilRegressão linear múltiplaCausalidade vendas-créditoTruck marketVehicle demandEconometric study for demandDemand for trucks in BrazilTruck salesDemand for cargo vehiclesEconometric model of demand for trucks in BrazilMultiple linear regressionCausality sales-creditAdministração de empresasImpostos - BrasilImposto sobre circulação de mercadorias e serviçosDescentralização administrativaEficiência governamentalO mercado de caminhões no Brasil: um estudo econométrico dos determinantes das vendas de 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InstitucionalPRI |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
O mercado de caminhões no Brasil: um estudo econométrico dos determinantes das vendas de veículos |
title |
O mercado de caminhões no Brasil: um estudo econométrico dos determinantes das vendas de veículos |
spellingShingle |
O mercado de caminhões no Brasil: um estudo econométrico dos determinantes das vendas de veículos Gonçalves, Carlos Aurélio Bustamante Mercado de caminhões Demanda veicular Estudo econométrico de demanda Demanda de caminhões no Brasil Vendas de caminhões Demanda de veículos comerciais de carga Modelo econométrico de demanda de caminhões no Brasil Regressão linear múltipla Causalidade vendas-crédito Truck market Vehicle demand Econometric study for demand Demand for trucks in Brazil Truck sales Demand for cargo vehicles Econometric model of demand for trucks in Brazil Multiple linear regression Causality sales-credit Administração de empresas Impostos - Brasil Imposto sobre circulação de mercadorias e serviços Descentralização administrativa Eficiência governamental |
title_short |
O mercado de caminhões no Brasil: um estudo econométrico dos determinantes das vendas de veículos |
title_full |
O mercado de caminhões no Brasil: um estudo econométrico dos determinantes das vendas de veículos |
title_fullStr |
O mercado de caminhões no Brasil: um estudo econométrico dos determinantes das vendas de veículos |
title_full_unstemmed |
O mercado de caminhões no Brasil: um estudo econométrico dos determinantes das vendas de veículos |
title_sort |
O mercado de caminhões no Brasil: um estudo econométrico dos determinantes das vendas de veículos |
author |
Gonçalves, Carlos Aurélio Bustamante |
author_facet |
Gonçalves, Carlos Aurélio Bustamante |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EAESP |
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv |
Samartini, André Luiz Silva Barbosa, Klênio |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Gonçalves, Carlos Aurélio Bustamante |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Oliveira, Antonio Carlos Manfredini da Cunha |
contributor_str_mv |
Oliveira, Antonio Carlos Manfredini da Cunha |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Mercado de caminhões Demanda veicular Estudo econométrico de demanda Demanda de caminhões no Brasil Vendas de caminhões Demanda de veículos comerciais de carga Modelo econométrico de demanda de caminhões no Brasil Regressão linear múltipla Causalidade vendas-crédito |
topic |
Mercado de caminhões Demanda veicular Estudo econométrico de demanda Demanda de caminhões no Brasil Vendas de caminhões Demanda de veículos comerciais de carga Modelo econométrico de demanda de caminhões no Brasil Regressão linear múltipla Causalidade vendas-crédito Truck market Vehicle demand Econometric study for demand Demand for trucks in Brazil Truck sales Demand for cargo vehicles Econometric model of demand for trucks in Brazil Multiple linear regression Causality sales-credit Administração de empresas Impostos - Brasil Imposto sobre circulação de mercadorias e serviços Descentralização administrativa Eficiência governamental |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Truck market Vehicle demand Econometric study for demand Demand for trucks in Brazil Truck sales Demand for cargo vehicles Econometric model of demand for trucks in Brazil Multiple linear regression Causality sales-credit |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Administração de empresas |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Impostos - Brasil Imposto sobre circulação de mercadorias e serviços Descentralização administrativa Eficiência governamental |
description |
This is a study on the demand for new trucks in Brazil from 1996 to 2015, and an investigation on the factors that influence it. This topic is relevant due to the scarcity of studies concerning the subject, and due to the overwhelming domination of trucks in cargo transport in Brazil. It aims identify and quantify the variables that drive the sales of trucks. To reach this goal, econometric models were constructed based on secondary data. Variables usually adopted in other studies on automotive demand were confirmed and even refined and new variables were successfully introduced. This study innovates by identifying three groups of variables, and by detailing the effects and the lags of their influence: variables specific to the truck market, variables related to GDP, and variables related to the decision maker’s confidence. Additionally, a causality analysis involving credit and truck sales was performed, unexpectedly resulting in sales causing credit. Through these results, this study disseminates knowledge about the behavior of the truck market to the entire productive chain, contributing to evolve the quality of decisions and the efficiency of the entire system. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2016-12-02T18:40:07Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2016-12-02T18:40:07Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2016-11-17 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
GONÇALVES, Carlos Aurélio Bustamante. O mercado de caminhões no Brasil: um estudo econométrico dos determinantes das vendas de veículos. Dissertação (Mestrado Profissional em Administração de Empresas) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2016. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/17541 |
identifier_str_mv |
GONÇALVES, Carlos Aurélio Bustamante. O mercado de caminhões no Brasil: um estudo econométrico dos determinantes das vendas de veículos. Dissertação (Mestrado Profissional em Administração de Empresas) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2016. |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/17541 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
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reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) instacron:FGV |
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FGV |
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FGV |
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Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
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Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
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