Sovereign default risk and commodity prices

Detalhes bibliográficos
Ano de defesa: 2017
Autor(a) principal: Lazzaro, João Guilherme Santos
Orientador(a): Guimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos
Banca de defesa: Não Informado pela instituição
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
Idioma: eng
Instituição de defesa: Não Informado pela instituição
Programa de Pós-Graduação: Não Informado pela instituição
Departamento: Não Informado pela instituição
País: Não Informado pela instituição
Palavras-chave em Português:
Risco-país
Calote soberano
Preços de commodities
Ciclos de negócios
Palavras-chave em Inglês:
Country risk
Sovereign default
Business cycles
Commodities prices
Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18302
Resumo: Country risk is known to be an important driver of emerging economies business cycles. Existing studies of macroeconomics effects of commodities prices on emerging economies' country risk assume an exogenous negative relation between these two variables. This work presents a model to explain endogenously this relation built upon the sovereign debt literature deriving from Arellano (2008). Our framework is then used to assess quantitatively the importance of the country risk effect of commodity prices on output volatility. We find that although this effect is negligible for economies with a high share of commodities on GDP but low indebtedness, the effect is important in indebted economies with a lower share of commodities in GDP.
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spelling Lazzaro, João Guilherme SantosEscolas::EESPShousha, SamerTeles, Vladimir KuhlGuimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos2017-06-05T20:35:34Z2017-06-05T20:35:34Z2017-05-12LAZZARO, João Guilherme Santos. Sovereign default risk and commodity prices. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia de Empresas) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2017.http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18302Country risk is known to be an important driver of emerging economies business cycles. Existing studies of macroeconomics effects of commodities prices on emerging economies' country risk assume an exogenous negative relation between these two variables. This work presents a model to explain endogenously this relation built upon the sovereign debt literature deriving from Arellano (2008). Our framework is then used to assess quantitatively the importance of the country risk effect of commodity prices on output volatility. We find that although this effect is negligible for economies with a high share of commodities on GDP but low indebtedness, the effect is important in indebted economies with a lower share of commodities in GDP.O risco país é conhecido por ser um motor importante dos ciclos econômicos das economias emergentes. Os estudos existentes sobre os efeitos macroeconômicos dos preços das commodities sobre o risco país das economias emergentes assumem uma relação negativa exógena entre essas duas variáveis. Este trabalho apresenta um modelo para explicar endogenamente esta relação baseado na literatura de dívida soberana derivada de Arellano (2008). Este arcabouço é então utilizado para avaliar quantitativamente a importância efeito do risco país dos preços de commodities sobre a volatilidade do produto. Descobre-se que, embora este efeito seja insignificante para economias com uma alta proporção de commodities em relação ao PIB e baixo endividamento, o efeito é importante em economias endividadas com menor participação de commodities no PIB.engCountry riskSovereign defaultBusiness cyclesCommodities pricesRisco-paísCalote soberanoPreços de commoditiesCiclos de negóciosEconomiaPaíses de risco (Economia)Ciclos econômicosMercado financeiro - PrevisãoMercado futuro de mercadoriasSovereign default risk and commodity pricesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessTEXTDissertacao_ABNT.pdf.txtDissertacao_ABNT.pdf.txtExtracted 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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv Sovereign default risk and commodity prices
title Sovereign default risk and commodity prices
spellingShingle Sovereign default risk and commodity prices
Lazzaro, João Guilherme Santos
Country risk
Sovereign default
Business cycles
Commodities prices
Risco-país
Calote soberano
Preços de commodities
Ciclos de negócios
Economia
Países de risco (Economia)
Ciclos econômicos
Mercado financeiro - Previsão
Mercado futuro de mercadorias
title_short Sovereign default risk and commodity prices
title_full Sovereign default risk and commodity prices
title_fullStr Sovereign default risk and commodity prices
title_full_unstemmed Sovereign default risk and commodity prices
title_sort Sovereign default risk and commodity prices
author Lazzaro, João Guilherme Santos
author_facet Lazzaro, João Guilherme Santos
author_role author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EESP
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv Shousha, Samer
Teles, Vladimir Kuhl
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Lazzaro, João Guilherme Santos
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Guimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos
contributor_str_mv Guimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Country risk
Sovereign default
Business cycles
Commodities prices
topic Country risk
Sovereign default
Business cycles
Commodities prices
Risco-país
Calote soberano
Preços de commodities
Ciclos de negócios
Economia
Países de risco (Economia)
Ciclos econômicos
Mercado financeiro - Previsão
Mercado futuro de mercadorias
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Risco-país
Calote soberano
Preços de commodities
Ciclos de negócios
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Economia
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Países de risco (Economia)
Ciclos econômicos
Mercado financeiro - Previsão
Mercado futuro de mercadorias
description Country risk is known to be an important driver of emerging economies business cycles. Existing studies of macroeconomics effects of commodities prices on emerging economies' country risk assume an exogenous negative relation between these two variables. This work presents a model to explain endogenously this relation built upon the sovereign debt literature deriving from Arellano (2008). Our framework is then used to assess quantitatively the importance of the country risk effect of commodity prices on output volatility. We find that although this effect is negligible for economies with a high share of commodities on GDP but low indebtedness, the effect is important in indebted economies with a lower share of commodities in GDP.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2017-06-05T20:35:34Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2017-06-05T20:35:34Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2017-05-12
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv LAZZARO, João Guilherme Santos. Sovereign default risk and commodity prices. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia de Empresas) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2017.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18302
identifier_str_mv LAZZARO, João Guilherme Santos. Sovereign default risk and commodity prices. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia de Empresas) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2017.
url http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18302
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
instacron:FGV
instname_str Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
instacron_str FGV
institution FGV
reponame_str Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
collection Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
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