Eficiência tributária, transferências constitucionais e perfil socioeconômico dos municípios de Minas Gerais: contribuições empíricas em torno da Proposta de Emenda Constitucional nº. 188/2019

• Ano de defesa: 2022
• Autor(a) principal: Sousa, André Azevedo
• Orientador(a): Ferreira Júnior, Sílvio
• Banca de defesa: Ferreira Júnior, Sílvio, Barbosa, Lúcio Otávio Seixas, Wanderley, Cláudio Burian, Baptista, Antonio José Medina dos Santos
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Fundação João Pinheiro
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa de Mestrado em Administração Pública
• Departamento: Escola de Governo Professor Paulo Neves de Carvalho
• País: Brasil
• Palavras-chave em Português: Administração Municipal; Tributação; Minas Gerais; Federalismo Fiscal; Proposta de Emenda constitucional nº 188 de 2019
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: ECONOMIA REGIONAL E URBANA::RENDA E TRIBUTACAO
• Link de acesso: http://repositorio.fjp.mg.gov.br/handle/tede/580

This theoretical-empirical research in the field of fiscal federalism aimed to estimate and to analyze the evolution of revenue efficiency – and its determinants - among the municipalities from the state of Minas Gerais from 2003 until 2018. The initial motivation for the study arose from the debate regarding the Constitutional Amendment Proposal n. 188/2019, currently on the Brazilian National Congress’ floor. Specifically in its article 6, the cited proposal determines that municipalities with lessthan 5 thousand inhabitants which fail to demonstrate their financial sustainability, defined as a minimum ratio of 10% between locally collected revenue and total revenue, would be incorporated to the neighbor city which presented the best results in that indicator. Based both on the theoretical discussions about fiscal federalism and on the empirical literature on Brazilian municipalitiesregarding the matter, a stochastic frontier model was developed in order to study the revenue efficiency of the 853 municipalities of Minas Gerais and its determinants, from 2003 until 2018. Population size, GDP (total and sectoral) and inflation were selected as explanatory variables for the locally collected revenue. To explain inefficiency, the weight of federal constitutional transfers (FPM) on the local GDP was employed, along with dummy variables associated with the election cycle and with the last municipality emancipation wave, which took place in the 1990s. In light of the results, the H0 hypothesis that no inefficiencies existed in municipal tax collection was rejected with 5% probability of type 1 error. Additionally, the study found that during the 2003-2018 horizon revenue efficiency of the municipalities behaved in a cyclical pattern which was associated to the electoral schedule, in the sense that higher inefficiency was identified during the local election years, as compared to non-election years. It was also verified that those municipalities emancipated during the 1990s were 27,1% more inefficient than the rest, after controlling for the effects of other explanatory variables of inefficiency. A negative correlation between the weight of FPM transfers on the local economy and revenue efficiency was also found. A conclusion was drawn that the criteria proposed by article 6 of the Constitutional Amendment Proposal n. 188/2019 are inadequate in face of the municipalities’ fiscal reality, considering that the results of the stochastic model indicate that even if the municipalities were able to be fully efficient regarding their revenue, the majority of them would be unable to achieve the 10% ratio between locally collected revenue and total revenue. At the end of the study, a new design for the proposition was suggested, in attempt to make the intended reform fairer, more rational and more democratic, in comparison with the initial proposal.