O processo eleitoral: eleitores e candidatos - análise quantitativa nas Ciências Sociais: limites e possibilidades

• Ano de defesa: 2014
• Autor(a) principal: Garcia, Mamerto Granja
• Orientador(a): Chaia, Miguel Wady
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa de Estudos Pós-Graduados em Ciências Sociais
• Departamento: Ciências Sociais
• País: BR
• Palavras-chave em Português: Comportamento do eleitor; Métodos quantitativos; Modelos estatísticos
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Voter behavior; Quantitative methods; Statistical models
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS
• Link de acesso: https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/3544

Understand the electoral process and to identify the variables explicitly or implicitly involved remains a field full of mysteries as dark as the human mind. Psychosocial factors awakened in the election period refer the researcher to an environment full of symbols , the most unusual emotions and diverse interests that include a search undertaken by the voter , apparently rational , in order to find convergence between their personal aspirations and potential characteristics representative . This paper aims to outline considerations on the subject based on an analysis of voter behavior from three factors that stand out during the election process: indecision, the continuity and the candidate. Indecision will be analyzed from a survey of undecided voters indicated in several polls. It is demonstrated that the simple fact of being located in the stratum of the undecided voter presents trends vote for a particular candidate. On the topic continuity and candidate assesses the issue of parliamentarians that keeps on elective position for long periods, through successive re-elections, and in addition, an analysis of the candidate's profile and its effect on the voter's decision. To all these questions, appropriate quantitative models are used, which seek to create a bridge between research in the social sciences and the analysis of observations by means of statistical