Constru????o de um ??ndice de dividendos para an??lise de bolhas racionais no mercado de a????es brasileiro
Ano de defesa: | 2016 |
---|---|
Autor(a) principal: | |
Orientador(a): | |
Banca de defesa: | |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Idioma: | por |
Instituição de defesa: |
Universidade Cat??lica de Bras??lia
|
Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Programa Strictu Sensu em Economia de Empresas
|
Departamento: |
Escola de Gest??o e Neg??cios
|
País: |
Brasil
|
Palavras-chave em Português: | |
Área do conhecimento CNPq: | |
Resumo em Inglês: | The existence of bubbles in stock markets can be detected by analyzing the relationship between stock prices and dividends. In Brazil, several studies use the Bovespa index as a proxy for stock prices, but differ in the index used as a proxy for dividends paid in the country. There are studies that create a monthly dividend index based on the theoretical portfolio and on the methodology of the Bovespa index. However, this dividend index has periods of great instability due to high concentration in the participation of some shares in the index. The objective of this study was to create an index that represents the dividend distribution in the Brazilian stock market using series provided by the Central Bank and the IBGE. The dividend index showed a smoother behavior, without periods of great instability or breaks. It was used as a proxy of the dividends in tests to verify the presence of bubbles. Three types of rational bubbles were studied: explosive bubbles, periodically collapsing bubbles and intrinsic bubbles. The tests results indicated that it is not possible to rule out the presence of explosive bubbles and detected evidences of the presence of periodically collapsing bubbles in the Brazilian stock market in this period. However, no evidence of the presence of intrinsic bubbles was found. |
Link de acesso: | https://bdtd.ucb.br:8443/jspui/handle/tede/2082 |
Resumo: | The existence of bubbles in stock markets can be detected by analyzing the relationship between stock prices and dividends. In Brazil, several studies use the Bovespa index as a proxy for stock prices, but differ in the index used as a proxy for dividends paid in the country. There are studies that create a monthly dividend index based on the theoretical portfolio and on the methodology of the Bovespa index. However, this dividend index has periods of great instability due to high concentration in the participation of some shares in the index. The objective of this study was to create an index that represents the dividend distribution in the Brazilian stock market using series provided by the Central Bank and the IBGE. The dividend index showed a smoother behavior, without periods of great instability or breaks. It was used as a proxy of the dividends in tests to verify the presence of bubbles. Three types of rational bubbles were studied: explosive bubbles, periodically collapsing bubbles and intrinsic bubbles. The tests results indicated that it is not possible to rule out the presence of explosive bubbles and detected evidences of the presence of periodically collapsing bubbles in the Brazilian stock market in this period. However, no evidence of the presence of intrinsic bubbles was found. |
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Maldonado, Wilfredo Fernando Leivahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/2898705867805713http://lattes.cnpq.br/9755995321762262Ribeiro, Jussara2017-04-20T12:47:41Z2016-03-10RIBEIRO, Jussara. Constru????o de um ??ndice de dividendos para an??lise de bolhas racionais no mercado de a????es brasileiro. 2016. 63 f. Disserta????o (Programa Strictu Sensu em Economia de Empresas) - Universidade Cat??lica de Bras??lia, Bras??lia, 2016.https://bdtd.ucb.br:8443/jspui/handle/tede/2082The existence of bubbles in stock markets can be detected by analyzing the relationship between stock prices and dividends. In Brazil, several studies use the Bovespa index as a proxy for stock prices, but differ in the index used as a proxy for dividends paid in the country. There are studies that create a monthly dividend index based on the theoretical portfolio and on the methodology of the Bovespa index. However, this dividend index has periods of great instability due to high concentration in the participation of some shares in the index. The objective of this study was to create an index that represents the dividend distribution in the Brazilian stock market using series provided by the Central Bank and the IBGE. The dividend index showed a smoother behavior, without periods of great instability or breaks. It was used as a proxy of the dividends in tests to verify the presence of bubbles. Three types of rational bubbles were studied: explosive bubbles, periodically collapsing bubbles and intrinsic bubbles. The tests results indicated that it is not possible to rule out the presence of explosive bubbles and detected evidences of the presence of periodically collapsing bubbles in the Brazilian stock market in this period. However, no evidence of the presence of intrinsic bubbles was found.A presen??a de bolhas no mercado de a????es pode ser detectada por meio da an??lise da rela????o existente entre os pre??os das a????es e seus dividendos. Na literatura brasileira, diversos trabalhos utilizam o ??ndice Bovespa como proxy dos pre??os, mas diferem quanto ao ??ndice utilizado como proxy dos dividendos distribu??dos no pa??s. H?? trabalhos que constroem um ??ndice de dividendos mensal baseado nas carteiras te??ricas e na metodologia do Ibovespa. Por??m, tal ??ndice apresenta per??odos de grande instabilidade decorrentes da concentra????o na participa????o de determinadas a????es no ??ndice. Diante disso, o objetivo do presente trabalho foi construir um ??ndice que represente a distribui????o de dividendos no mercado acion??rio brasileiro a partir de s??ries fornecidas pelo Banco Central e pelo IBGE, tendo como refer??ncia a Lei das Sociedades por A????es. O ??ndice constru??do apresentou um comportamento mais suave, sem per??odos de grande instabilidade ou quebras. Ele foi, ent??o, utilizado como proxy dos dividendos em testes para verificar a presen??a de bolhas no mercado de a????es. Tr??s tipos de bolhas racionais foram estudados: bolhas explosivas, bolhas que estouram periodicamente e bolhas intr??nsecas. Os resultados dos testes indicaram que n??o ?? poss??vel descartar a presen??a de bolhas explosivas e detectaram ind??cios da presen??a de bolhas que estouram periodicamente no mercado de a????es brasileiro no per??odo analisado. N??o foram encontrados, por??m, ind??cios da presen??a de bolhas intr??nsecas nesse mercado.Submitted by Sara Ribeiro (sara.ribeiro@ucb.br) on 2017-04-20T12:47:20Z No. of bitstreams: 1 JussaraRibeiroDissertacao2016.pdf: 1633683 bytes, checksum: bc56d87d5073ee0367b3355ccad9bf94 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Sara Ribeiro (sara.ribeiro@ucb.br) on 2017-04-20T12:47:41Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 JussaraRibeiroDissertacao2016.pdf: 1633683 bytes, checksum: bc56d87d5073ee0367b3355ccad9bf94 (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-20T12:47:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 JussaraRibeiroDissertacao2016.pdf: 1633683 bytes, checksum: bc56d87d5073ee0367b3355ccad9bf94 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-10application/pdfhttps://bdtd.ucb.br:8443/jspui/retrieve/4486/JussaraRibeiroDissertacao2016.pdf.jpgporUniversidade Cat??lica de Bras??liaPrograma Strictu Sensu em Economia de EmpresasUCBBrasilEscola de Gest??o e Neg??ciosEconomia??ndice de dividendosBolhas racionaisBolhas explosivasBolhas que estouram periodicamenteBolhas intr??nsecasMercado de a????esCIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIAConstru????o de um ??ndice de dividendos para an??lise de bolhas racionais no mercado de a????es brasileiroinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis-1139962560771343510500500600-1917891883403718704-2504903392600098822info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UCBinstname:Universidade Católica de Brasíliainstacron:UCBTHUMBNAILJussaraRibeiroDissertacao2016.pdf.jpgJussaraRibeiroDissertacao2016.pdf.jpgimage/jpeg5653https://bdtd.ucb.br:8443/jspui/bitstream/tede/2082/4/JussaraRibeiroDissertacao2016.pdf.jpg5a049b6ef40ff010ece9f6f22f8b90daMD54TEXTJussaraRibeiroDissertacao2016.pdf.txtJussaraRibeiroDissertacao2016.pdf.txttext/plain119903https://bdtd.ucb.br:8443/jspui/bitstream/tede/2082/3/JussaraRibeiroDissertacao2016.pdf.txtf13399ea3513ec65368c9726e7c38319MD53ORIGINALJussaraRibeiroDissertacao2016.pdfJussaraRibeiroDissertacao2016.pdfapplication/pdf1633683https://bdtd.ucb.br:8443/jspui/bitstream/tede/2082/2/JussaraRibeiroDissertacao2016.pdfbc56d87d5073ee0367b3355ccad9bf94MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82048https://bdtd.ucb.br:8443/jspui/bitstream/tede/2082/1/license.txt76cd1e6bdecb11e4b12c81d5fe0f87b3MD51tede/2082oai:bdtd.ucb.br:tede/20822017-04-21 01:03:34.461Biblioteca Digital de Disserta????es da Universidade Cat??lica de Bras??lia - UCBsdi@ucb.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 |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Constru????o de um ??ndice de dividendos para an??lise de bolhas racionais no mercado de a????es brasileiro |
title |
Constru????o de um ??ndice de dividendos para an??lise de bolhas racionais no mercado de a????es brasileiro |
spellingShingle |
Constru????o de um ??ndice de dividendos para an??lise de bolhas racionais no mercado de a????es brasileiro Ribeiro, Jussara Economia ??ndice de dividendos Bolhas racionais Bolhas explosivas Bolhas que estouram periodicamente Bolhas intr??nsecas Mercado de a????es CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
title_short |
Constru????o de um ??ndice de dividendos para an??lise de bolhas racionais no mercado de a????es brasileiro |
title_full |
Constru????o de um ??ndice de dividendos para an??lise de bolhas racionais no mercado de a????es brasileiro |
title_fullStr |
Constru????o de um ??ndice de dividendos para an??lise de bolhas racionais no mercado de a????es brasileiro |
title_full_unstemmed |
Constru????o de um ??ndice de dividendos para an??lise de bolhas racionais no mercado de a????es brasileiro |
title_sort |
Constru????o de um ??ndice de dividendos para an??lise de bolhas racionais no mercado de a????es brasileiro |
author |
Ribeiro, Jussara |
author_facet |
Ribeiro, Jussara |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Maldonado, Wilfredo Fernando Leiva |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/2898705867805713 |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/9755995321762262 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Ribeiro, Jussara |
contributor_str_mv |
Maldonado, Wilfredo Fernando Leiva |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia ??ndice de dividendos Bolhas racionais Bolhas explosivas Bolhas que estouram periodicamente Bolhas intr??nsecas Mercado de a????es |
topic |
Economia ??ndice de dividendos Bolhas racionais Bolhas explosivas Bolhas que estouram periodicamente Bolhas intr??nsecas Mercado de a????es CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
dc.description.abstract.eng.fl_txt_mv |
The existence of bubbles in stock markets can be detected by analyzing the relationship between stock prices and dividends. In Brazil, several studies use the Bovespa index as a proxy for stock prices, but differ in the index used as a proxy for dividends paid in the country. There are studies that create a monthly dividend index based on the theoretical portfolio and on the methodology of the Bovespa index. However, this dividend index has periods of great instability due to high concentration in the participation of some shares in the index. The objective of this study was to create an index that represents the dividend distribution in the Brazilian stock market using series provided by the Central Bank and the IBGE. The dividend index showed a smoother behavior, without periods of great instability or breaks. It was used as a proxy of the dividends in tests to verify the presence of bubbles. Three types of rational bubbles were studied: explosive bubbles, periodically collapsing bubbles and intrinsic bubbles. The tests results indicated that it is not possible to rule out the presence of explosive bubbles and detected evidences of the presence of periodically collapsing bubbles in the Brazilian stock market in this period. However, no evidence of the presence of intrinsic bubbles was found. |
dc.description.abstract.por.fl_txt_mv |
A presen??a de bolhas no mercado de a????es pode ser detectada por meio da an??lise da rela????o existente entre os pre??os das a????es e seus dividendos. Na literatura brasileira, diversos trabalhos utilizam o ??ndice Bovespa como proxy dos pre??os, mas diferem quanto ao ??ndice utilizado como proxy dos dividendos distribu??dos no pa??s. H?? trabalhos que constroem um ??ndice de dividendos mensal baseado nas carteiras te??ricas e na metodologia do Ibovespa. Por??m, tal ??ndice apresenta per??odos de grande instabilidade decorrentes da concentra????o na participa????o de determinadas a????es no ??ndice. Diante disso, o objetivo do presente trabalho foi construir um ??ndice que represente a distribui????o de dividendos no mercado acion??rio brasileiro a partir de s??ries fornecidas pelo Banco Central e pelo IBGE, tendo como refer??ncia a Lei das Sociedades por A????es. O ??ndice constru??do apresentou um comportamento mais suave, sem per??odos de grande instabilidade ou quebras. Ele foi, ent??o, utilizado como proxy dos dividendos em testes para verificar a presen??a de bolhas no mercado de a????es. Tr??s tipos de bolhas racionais foram estudados: bolhas explosivas, bolhas que estouram periodicamente e bolhas intr??nsecas. Os resultados dos testes indicaram que n??o ?? poss??vel descartar a presen??a de bolhas explosivas e detectaram ind??cios da presen??a de bolhas que estouram periodicamente no mercado de a????es brasileiro no per??odo analisado. N??o foram encontrados, por??m, ind??cios da presen??a de bolhas intr??nsecas nesse mercado. |
description |
The existence of bubbles in stock markets can be detected by analyzing the relationship between stock prices and dividends. In Brazil, several studies use the Bovespa index as a proxy for stock prices, but differ in the index used as a proxy for dividends paid in the country. There are studies that create a monthly dividend index based on the theoretical portfolio and on the methodology of the Bovespa index. However, this dividend index has periods of great instability due to high concentration in the participation of some shares in the index. The objective of this study was to create an index that represents the dividend distribution in the Brazilian stock market using series provided by the Central Bank and the IBGE. The dividend index showed a smoother behavior, without periods of great instability or breaks. It was used as a proxy of the dividends in tests to verify the presence of bubbles. Three types of rational bubbles were studied: explosive bubbles, periodically collapsing bubbles and intrinsic bubbles. The tests results indicated that it is not possible to rule out the presence of explosive bubbles and detected evidences of the presence of periodically collapsing bubbles in the Brazilian stock market in this period. However, no evidence of the presence of intrinsic bubbles was found. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2016-03-10 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2017-04-20T12:47:41Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
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RIBEIRO, Jussara. Constru????o de um ??ndice de dividendos para an??lise de bolhas racionais no mercado de a????es brasileiro. 2016. 63 f. Disserta????o (Programa Strictu Sensu em Economia de Empresas) - Universidade Cat??lica de Bras??lia, Bras??lia, 2016. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://bdtd.ucb.br:8443/jspui/handle/tede/2082 |
identifier_str_mv |
RIBEIRO, Jussara. Constru????o de um ??ndice de dividendos para an??lise de bolhas racionais no mercado de a????es brasileiro. 2016. 63 f. Disserta????o (Programa Strictu Sensu em Economia de Empresas) - Universidade Cat??lica de Bras??lia, Bras??lia, 2016. |
url |
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UCB |
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Brasil |
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Escola de Gest??o e Neg??cios |
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Universidade Cat??lica de Bras??lia |
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