O impacto dos determinantes macroeconômicos sobre o investimento produtivo dos estados brasileiros : uma análise em painel dinâmico
Ano de defesa: | 2021 |
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Autor(a) principal: | |
Orientador(a): | |
Banca de defesa: | |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Idioma: | por |
Instituição de defesa: |
Não Informado pela instituição
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Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Pós-Graduação em Economia
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Departamento: |
Não Informado pela instituição
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País: |
Não Informado pela instituição
|
Palavras-chave em Português: | |
Palavras-chave em Inglês: | |
Área do conhecimento CNPq: | |
Link de acesso: | https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/18803 |
Resumo: | This dissertation analyzes the main macroeconomic determinants of investment by Brazilian states. The objective of this study is to verify the impact of macroeconomic variables such as credit, inflation, real exchange rate, GDP per capita and trade flow on the level of investment in the period from 2008 to 2018. The hypothesis to be tested is that these variables affect differently their states, given their productive heterogeneities. Such period is used due to the availability of data related to state macroeconomic indicators. The methodology used was the dynamic GMM with an unbalanced panel and with the use of additional instrumental variables, to smooth the problem of endogeneity in the model. Annual information from the 26 federative units in Brazil, plus Brasília, was used. The dependent variable, investment, was obtained through a proxy for the production of capital goods (manufacture of machinery and equipment). The explanatory variables were the production of capital goods lagged in one period, the real interest rate, the real exchange rate, the total state credit operations, the state trade chain, the state wide consumer price index and the GDP per capita. From the results obtained in the estimation, it was possible to show that the capital goods production variables of the previous period, credit, trade flow and GDP per capita, had a positive impact on investment in the current period, being significant at 1%. Showing that current investment has a correlation with investment decisions made in the past. Credit as an essential variable for the realization of the investment, on the premise that the greater the availability of credit, the greater the possibility of increasing investments. The flow of trade, on the other hand, is an important variable for the external sector of the Brazilian economy, as as states trade more with the rest of the world, there will be a greater possibility of increasing their capital stock, turning the economy into a more dynamic environment. And GDP per capital, showing that variations in productive investment are strongly correlated with fluctuations in output. The variables, real interest rate and real exchange rate, had a negative impact and were significant, at 1% and 5%, respectively. As endorsed in the literature, a high interest rate and a appreciated exchange rate contract investment. Finally, the IPCA showed a positive correlation, however, it was not significant. |
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Costa, João Erick Alexandre BarbosaEsperidião, FernandaMissio, Fabrício José2023-12-14T14:12:26Z2023-12-14T14:12:26Z2021-03-18COSTA, João Erick Alexandre Barbosa. O impacto dos determinantes macroeconômicos sobre o investimento produtivo dos estados brasileiros : uma análise em painel dinâmico. 2021. 127 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) – Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, 2021.https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/18803This dissertation analyzes the main macroeconomic determinants of investment by Brazilian states. The objective of this study is to verify the impact of macroeconomic variables such as credit, inflation, real exchange rate, GDP per capita and trade flow on the level of investment in the period from 2008 to 2018. The hypothesis to be tested is that these variables affect differently their states, given their productive heterogeneities. Such period is used due to the availability of data related to state macroeconomic indicators. The methodology used was the dynamic GMM with an unbalanced panel and with the use of additional instrumental variables, to smooth the problem of endogeneity in the model. Annual information from the 26 federative units in Brazil, plus Brasília, was used. The dependent variable, investment, was obtained through a proxy for the production of capital goods (manufacture of machinery and equipment). The explanatory variables were the production of capital goods lagged in one period, the real interest rate, the real exchange rate, the total state credit operations, the state trade chain, the state wide consumer price index and the GDP per capita. From the results obtained in the estimation, it was possible to show that the capital goods production variables of the previous period, credit, trade flow and GDP per capita, had a positive impact on investment in the current period, being significant at 1%. Showing that current investment has a correlation with investment decisions made in the past. Credit as an essential variable for the realization of the investment, on the premise that the greater the availability of credit, the greater the possibility of increasing investments. The flow of trade, on the other hand, is an important variable for the external sector of the Brazilian economy, as as states trade more with the rest of the world, there will be a greater possibility of increasing their capital stock, turning the economy into a more dynamic environment. And GDP per capital, showing that variations in productive investment are strongly correlated with fluctuations in output. The variables, real interest rate and real exchange rate, had a negative impact and were significant, at 1% and 5%, respectively. As endorsed in the literature, a high interest rate and a appreciated exchange rate contract investment. Finally, the IPCA showed a positive correlation, however, it was not significant.Esta dissertação analisa os principais determinantes macroeconômicos do investimento dos estados brasileiros. O objetivo desse estudo é verificar o impacto de variáveis macroeconômicas como crédito, inflação, taxa de câmbio real, PIB per capita e corrente de comércio sobre o nível de investimento no período de 2008 a 2018. A hipótese a ser testada é que essas variáveis afetam de forma diferenciada os seus estados, dadas suas heterogeneidades produtivas. Utiliza-se de tal período em decorrência da disponibilidade de dados relacionados aos indicadores macroeconômicos estaduais. A metodologia utilizada foi o GMM dinâmico com um painel desbalanceado e com uso de variáveis instrumentais adicionais, para suavizar o problema de endogeneidade no modelo. Foram usadas informações anuais das 26 unidades federativas do Brasil, mais Brasília. A variável dependente, o investimento, foi obtida através de uma proxy da produção de bens de capital (fabricação de máquinas e equipamentos). As variáveis explicativas foram a produção de bens de capital defasada em um período, a taxa de juros real, a taxa de câmbio real, as operações totais de crédito estaduais, a corrente de comércio estadual, o índice de preço ao consumidor amplo estadual e o PIB per capita. Dos resultados obtidos na estimação foi possível evidenciar que as variáveis de produção de bens de capital do período anterior, o crédito, a corrente de comércio e o PIB per capita, tiveram um impacto positivo sobre o investimento no período corrente, sendo significativas a 1%. Mostrando que o investimento corrente possui uma correlação com as decisões de investimento realizadas no passado. O crédito como sendo uma variável essencial para a concretização do investimento, na premissa de quanto maior a disponibilidade de crédito, maior a possibilidade de aumentos os investimentos. Já a corrente de comércio sendo uma variável importante para setor externo da economia brasileira, pois à medida que os estados comercializam mais com o resto do mundo, haverá maior possibilidade de aumentar seu estoque de capital, transformando a economia em um ambiente mais dinâmico. E o PIB per capital, evidenciando que variações no investimento produtivo estão fortemente correlacionados com oscilações do produto. Já as variáveis, taxa de juros real e taxa de câmbio real, tiveram um impacto negativo e foram significativas, a 1% e 5%, respectivamente. Conforme referendado na literatura uma taxa de juros alta e um câmbio apreciado contraem o investimento. Por fim, o IPCA apresentou possuir uma correlação positiva, entretanto, foi não significante.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPESFundação de Apoio a Pesquisa e à Inovação Tecnológica do Estado de Sergipe - FAPITEC/SESão CristóvãoporInvestimentoBens de capitalEstadosMacroeconomiaInvestmentCapital goodsStatesMacroeconomicsCIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIAO impacto dos determinantes macroeconômicos sobre o investimento produtivo dos estados brasileiros : uma análise em painel dinâmicoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisPós-Graduação em EconomiaUniversidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS)reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFSinstname:Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS)instacron:UFSinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81475https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/18803/1/license.txt098cbbf65c2c15e1fb2e49c5d306a44cMD51ORIGINALJOAO_ERICK_A_BARBOSA_COSTA.pdfJOAO_ERICK_A_BARBOSA_COSTA.pdfapplication/pdf1747682https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/bitstream/riufs/18803/2/JOAO_ERICK_A_BARBOSA_COSTA.pdf7ac9f1dce4854d6978f6992d9223b1a1MD52riufs/188032023-12-14 11:13:53.416oai:ufs.br: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Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://ri.ufs.br/oai/requestrepositorio@academico.ufs.bropendoar:2023-12-14T14:13:53Repositório Institucional da UFS - Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
O impacto dos determinantes macroeconômicos sobre o investimento produtivo dos estados brasileiros : uma análise em painel dinâmico |
title |
O impacto dos determinantes macroeconômicos sobre o investimento produtivo dos estados brasileiros : uma análise em painel dinâmico |
spellingShingle |
O impacto dos determinantes macroeconômicos sobre o investimento produtivo dos estados brasileiros : uma análise em painel dinâmico Costa, João Erick Alexandre Barbosa Investimento Bens de capital Estados Macroeconomia Investment Capital goods States Macroeconomics CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
title_short |
O impacto dos determinantes macroeconômicos sobre o investimento produtivo dos estados brasileiros : uma análise em painel dinâmico |
title_full |
O impacto dos determinantes macroeconômicos sobre o investimento produtivo dos estados brasileiros : uma análise em painel dinâmico |
title_fullStr |
O impacto dos determinantes macroeconômicos sobre o investimento produtivo dos estados brasileiros : uma análise em painel dinâmico |
title_full_unstemmed |
O impacto dos determinantes macroeconômicos sobre o investimento produtivo dos estados brasileiros : uma análise em painel dinâmico |
title_sort |
O impacto dos determinantes macroeconômicos sobre o investimento produtivo dos estados brasileiros : uma análise em painel dinâmico |
author |
Costa, João Erick Alexandre Barbosa |
author_facet |
Costa, João Erick Alexandre Barbosa |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Costa, João Erick Alexandre Barbosa |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Esperidião, Fernanda |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv |
Missio, Fabrício José |
contributor_str_mv |
Esperidião, Fernanda Missio, Fabrício José |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Investimento Bens de capital Estados Macroeconomia |
topic |
Investimento Bens de capital Estados Macroeconomia Investment Capital goods States Macroeconomics CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Investment Capital goods States Macroeconomics |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
description |
This dissertation analyzes the main macroeconomic determinants of investment by Brazilian states. The objective of this study is to verify the impact of macroeconomic variables such as credit, inflation, real exchange rate, GDP per capita and trade flow on the level of investment in the period from 2008 to 2018. The hypothesis to be tested is that these variables affect differently their states, given their productive heterogeneities. Such period is used due to the availability of data related to state macroeconomic indicators. The methodology used was the dynamic GMM with an unbalanced panel and with the use of additional instrumental variables, to smooth the problem of endogeneity in the model. Annual information from the 26 federative units in Brazil, plus Brasília, was used. The dependent variable, investment, was obtained through a proxy for the production of capital goods (manufacture of machinery and equipment). The explanatory variables were the production of capital goods lagged in one period, the real interest rate, the real exchange rate, the total state credit operations, the state trade chain, the state wide consumer price index and the GDP per capita. From the results obtained in the estimation, it was possible to show that the capital goods production variables of the previous period, credit, trade flow and GDP per capita, had a positive impact on investment in the current period, being significant at 1%. Showing that current investment has a correlation with investment decisions made in the past. Credit as an essential variable for the realization of the investment, on the premise that the greater the availability of credit, the greater the possibility of increasing investments. The flow of trade, on the other hand, is an important variable for the external sector of the Brazilian economy, as as states trade more with the rest of the world, there will be a greater possibility of increasing their capital stock, turning the economy into a more dynamic environment. And GDP per capital, showing that variations in productive investment are strongly correlated with fluctuations in output. The variables, real interest rate and real exchange rate, had a negative impact and were significant, at 1% and 5%, respectively. As endorsed in the literature, a high interest rate and a appreciated exchange rate contract investment. Finally, the IPCA showed a positive correlation, however, it was not significant. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2021-03-18 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2023-12-14T14:12:26Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2023-12-14T14:12:26Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
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masterThesis |
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publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
COSTA, João Erick Alexandre Barbosa. O impacto dos determinantes macroeconômicos sobre o investimento produtivo dos estados brasileiros : uma análise em painel dinâmico. 2021. 127 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) – Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, 2021. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/18803 |
identifier_str_mv |
COSTA, João Erick Alexandre Barbosa. O impacto dos determinantes macroeconômicos sobre o investimento produtivo dos estados brasileiros : uma análise em painel dinâmico. 2021. 127 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) – Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, 2021. |
url |
https://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/18803 |
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por |
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Pós-Graduação em Economia |
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Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS) |
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