Desenvolvimento do arroz e do arroz vermelho: modelagem e resposta à mudança climática
Ano de defesa: | 2008 |
---|---|
Autor(a) principal: | |
Orientador(a): | |
Banca de defesa: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Idioma: | por |
Instituição de defesa: |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria
|
Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Agronomia
|
Departamento: |
Agronomia
|
País: |
BR
|
Palavras-chave em Português: | |
Palavras-chave em Inglês: | |
Área do conhecimento CNPq: | |
Link de acesso: | http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/4972 |
Resumo: | Increases of 1.1 to 6.4°C in temperature are projected by the end of the XXI century in several locations, including Brazil. Among processes that may be affected by increasing temperatures is the duration of the developmental cycle of crops. Simulation models are tools that allow to describe the possible interactions that take place in agroecoystems and their response to climate change scenarios. The objectives of this dissertation were (i) to simulate the development of irrigated rice and red rice comparing a linear (thermal time model) with a non-linear (WE model) model, and (ii) to investigate the response of the development of rice and red rice to climate change scenarios in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures. Data from a four-year experiment conducted during the 2003-2004 (five sowing dates), 2004-2005 (five sowing dates), 2005-2006 (three sowing dates), and 2006-2007 (two sowing dates) growing seasons in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil were used. Plants were grown in 12 liter pots during the four years, and in a paddy rice field during the 2006-2007 growing season. Nine cultivated rice genotypes (IRGA 421, IRGA 416, IRGA 417, IRGA 420, BRS 7 TAIM, BR-IRGA 409, EPAGRI 109, an Hybrid, and EEA 406), and two red rice biotypes (awned blackhull- ABHRR, and awned yellowhull-AYHRR) were used. Developmental data available and used in this study were dates of emergence (EM), panicle differentiation (R1), anthesis (R4), and all grains with brown hulls (R9) recorded in five plants per replication in each sowing date. Data collected in the 2004-2005 and 2005-2006 growing season were used to estimate the coefficients of the two models and data collected in the 2003-2004 and 2006-2007 growing season were used as an independent data set for models evaluation. A one hundred years climate scenarios of 0°C, +1°C, +2°C, +3°C, +4°C, and +5°C, with symmetric and asymmetric increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures were created with the LARS-WG Weather Generator using a 1969-2003 database. Date of developmental stages in each climate scenario was calculated with the non-linear model (WE model). The root mean square error (RMSE) for all developmental stages varied from 4.9 to 10.5 days with the thermal time model and from 4.3 to 10.9 days with the WE model. The WE model gave better predictions in six out of eleven genotypes, with better predictions for early (R1) than for later (R4 and R9) developmental stages. The duration of the EM-R1 phase in general decreased whereas the duration of the R1-R4 and R4-R9 phases most often increased as temperature increased in the climate change scenarios. The simulated rice development response to elevated temperature was not the same when the increase in minimum and maximum temperature was symmetric or asymmetric. Current rice genotypes may be less competitive with red rice in future climates. |
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2017-05-082017-05-082008-02-28LAGO, Isabel. Rice and red rice development: modeling and response to climate change. 2008. 94 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Agronomia) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2008.http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/4972Increases of 1.1 to 6.4°C in temperature are projected by the end of the XXI century in several locations, including Brazil. Among processes that may be affected by increasing temperatures is the duration of the developmental cycle of crops. Simulation models are tools that allow to describe the possible interactions that take place in agroecoystems and their response to climate change scenarios. The objectives of this dissertation were (i) to simulate the development of irrigated rice and red rice comparing a linear (thermal time model) with a non-linear (WE model) model, and (ii) to investigate the response of the development of rice and red rice to climate change scenarios in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures. Data from a four-year experiment conducted during the 2003-2004 (five sowing dates), 2004-2005 (five sowing dates), 2005-2006 (three sowing dates), and 2006-2007 (two sowing dates) growing seasons in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil were used. Plants were grown in 12 liter pots during the four years, and in a paddy rice field during the 2006-2007 growing season. Nine cultivated rice genotypes (IRGA 421, IRGA 416, IRGA 417, IRGA 420, BRS 7 TAIM, BR-IRGA 409, EPAGRI 109, an Hybrid, and EEA 406), and two red rice biotypes (awned blackhull- ABHRR, and awned yellowhull-AYHRR) were used. Developmental data available and used in this study were dates of emergence (EM), panicle differentiation (R1), anthesis (R4), and all grains with brown hulls (R9) recorded in five plants per replication in each sowing date. Data collected in the 2004-2005 and 2005-2006 growing season were used to estimate the coefficients of the two models and data collected in the 2003-2004 and 2006-2007 growing season were used as an independent data set for models evaluation. A one hundred years climate scenarios of 0°C, +1°C, +2°C, +3°C, +4°C, and +5°C, with symmetric and asymmetric increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures were created with the LARS-WG Weather Generator using a 1969-2003 database. Date of developmental stages in each climate scenario was calculated with the non-linear model (WE model). The root mean square error (RMSE) for all developmental stages varied from 4.9 to 10.5 days with the thermal time model and from 4.3 to 10.9 days with the WE model. The WE model gave better predictions in six out of eleven genotypes, with better predictions for early (R1) than for later (R4 and R9) developmental stages. The duration of the EM-R1 phase in general decreased whereas the duration of the R1-R4 and R4-R9 phases most often increased as temperature increased in the climate change scenarios. The simulated rice development response to elevated temperature was not the same when the increase in minimum and maximum temperature was symmetric or asymmetric. Current rice genotypes may be less competitive with red rice in future climates.Projeções indicam aumentos de 1,1 a 6,4°C na temperatura do ar até o final do século XXI em vários locais do planeta, incluindo o Brasil. Dentre os processos que poderão ser afetados pelo aumento da temperatura está a duração do ciclo de desenvolvimento das culturas. Nesse sentido, modelos de simulação são ferramentas que nos permitem descrever as possíveis interações que acontecem nos agroecossistemas e suas respostas a cenários de mudança climática. Os objetivos desta dissertação foram (i) simular o desenvolvimento do arroz irrigado e do arroz vermelho comparando um modelo linear (modelo soma térmica) com um modelo não linear (modelo WE) e (ii) avaliar a resposta do desenvolvimento do arroz e do arroz vermelho a cenários de mudança climática em Santa Maria, RS, Brasil, considerando aumentos simétricos e assimétricos nas temperaturas mínima e máxima diárias do ar. Foram usados dados de um experimento de quatro anos, conduzido durante os anos agrícolas 2003- 2004 (5 datas de semeadura), 2004-2005 (5 datas de semeadura), 2005-2006 (3 datas de semeadura) e 2006-2007 (2 datas de semeadura) em Santa Maria, RS, Brasil. As plantas foram cultivadas em baldes de 12 litros durante os quatro anos e em uma área de várzea durante o ano agrícola 2006-2007. Foram usados nove genótipos de arroz cultivado (IRGA 421, IRGA 416, IRGA 417, IRGA 420, BRS 7 TAIM, BR-IRGA 409, EPAGRI 109, um Híbrido e EEA 406) e dois biótipos de arroz vermelho (casca preta aristado - ABHRR e casca amarela aristado - AYHRR). Os dados de desenvolvimento disponíveis e usados neste estudo foram datas de emergência (EM), diferenciação da panícula (R1), antese (R4) e todos os grãos com casca marrom (R9) coletados em cinco plantas por repetição em cada data de semeadura. Os dados coletados nos anos agrícolas 2004-2005 e 2005-2006 foram usados para estimar os coeficientes dos dois modelos e os dados coletados nos anos agrícolas 2003-2004 e 2006- 2007 foram usados como dados independentes para a avaliação dos modelos. Os cenários climáticos de 100 anos de 0°C, +1°C, + 2°C, +3°C, +4°C e +5°C, com aumentos simétricos e assimétricos nas temperaturas mínima e máxima diárias do ar, foram gerados com Weather Generator LARS-WG usando uma base de dados observados de 1969-2003. As datas dos estágios de desenvolvimento, nos cenários de mudança climática, foram estimadas com o modelo não linear (modelo WE). A raiz do quadrado médio do erro (RMSE), para todos os estágios de desenvolvimento, variou de 4,9 a 10,5 dias com o modelo da soma térmica e de 4,3 a 10,9 dias com o modelo WE. O modelo WE teve melhores predições em seis dos onze genótipos, com melhores predições para o estágio mais precoce (R1) do que para os mais tardios (R4 e R9). A duração da fase EM-R1 em geral diminuiu, enquanto que a duração das fases R1-R4 e R4-R9 geralmente aumentaram, com o aumento da temperatura nos cenários de mudança climática. A resposta simulada do desenvolvimento do arroz a elevação da temperatura não foi a mesma quando o aumento na temperatura mínima e máxima foi simétrico ou assimétrico. Os atuais genótipos de arroz podem ser menos competitivos com o arroz vermelho em climas futuros.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superiorapplication/pdfporUniversidade Federal de Santa MariaPrograma de Pós-Graduação em AgronomiaUFSMBRAgronomiaOryza sativaFenologiaModelagemAquecimento globalSimulaçãoOryza sativaPhenologyModelingGlobal warmingSimulationCNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIADesenvolvimento do arroz e do arroz vermelho: modelagem e resposta à mudança climáticaRice and red rice development: modeling and response to climate changeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisStreck, Nereu Augustohttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4721150P1Streck, Lucianohttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4794800T6Kruse, Nelson Diehlhttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4707866P4http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4778883J9Lago, Isabel5001000000094005005003003003b01ed40-f2a9-4cc8-9109-59e6f482b05dfb614ee8-8c4e-4cfa-82f4-e62f4ca88c89373ab517-91e6-49c9-baed-ebeb3209bd2a70fef33e-25d4-4b38-8218-c5c3a451d7ecinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSMinstname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMORIGINALISABELLAGO.pdfapplication/pdf554677http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/4972/1/ISABELLAGO.pdf9a258b942310f268ac4f9402ca20a686MD51TEXTISABELLAGO.pdf.txtISABELLAGO.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain182808http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/4972/2/ISABELLAGO.pdf.txt13f083e53bfb23bbcaf89e514c8bb07fMD52THUMBNAILISABELLAGO.pdf.jpgISABELLAGO.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg4731http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/4972/3/ISABELLAGO.pdf.jpgc628be589784e1bc4469fef3a3bbdeddMD531/49722017-07-25 11:13:19.505oai:repositorio.ufsm.br:1/4972Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/ONGhttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/oai/requestatendimento.sib@ufsm.br||tedebc@gmail.comopendoar:2017-07-25T14:13:19Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Desenvolvimento do arroz e do arroz vermelho: modelagem e resposta à mudança climática |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Rice and red rice development: modeling and response to climate change |
title |
Desenvolvimento do arroz e do arroz vermelho: modelagem e resposta à mudança climática |
spellingShingle |
Desenvolvimento do arroz e do arroz vermelho: modelagem e resposta à mudança climática Lago, Isabel Oryza sativa Fenologia Modelagem Aquecimento global Simulação Oryza sativa Phenology Modeling Global warming Simulation CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA |
title_short |
Desenvolvimento do arroz e do arroz vermelho: modelagem e resposta à mudança climática |
title_full |
Desenvolvimento do arroz e do arroz vermelho: modelagem e resposta à mudança climática |
title_fullStr |
Desenvolvimento do arroz e do arroz vermelho: modelagem e resposta à mudança climática |
title_full_unstemmed |
Desenvolvimento do arroz e do arroz vermelho: modelagem e resposta à mudança climática |
title_sort |
Desenvolvimento do arroz e do arroz vermelho: modelagem e resposta à mudança climática |
author |
Lago, Isabel |
author_facet |
Lago, Isabel |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Streck, Nereu Augusto |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4721150P1 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Streck, Luciano |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4794800T6 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Kruse, Nelson Diehl |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4707866P4 |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4778883J9 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Lago, Isabel |
contributor_str_mv |
Streck, Nereu Augusto Streck, Luciano Kruse, Nelson Diehl |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Oryza sativa Fenologia Modelagem Aquecimento global Simulação |
topic |
Oryza sativa Fenologia Modelagem Aquecimento global Simulação Oryza sativa Phenology Modeling Global warming Simulation CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Oryza sativa Phenology Modeling Global warming Simulation |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA |
description |
Increases of 1.1 to 6.4°C in temperature are projected by the end of the XXI century in several locations, including Brazil. Among processes that may be affected by increasing temperatures is the duration of the developmental cycle of crops. Simulation models are tools that allow to describe the possible interactions that take place in agroecoystems and their response to climate change scenarios. The objectives of this dissertation were (i) to simulate the development of irrigated rice and red rice comparing a linear (thermal time model) with a non-linear (WE model) model, and (ii) to investigate the response of the development of rice and red rice to climate change scenarios in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures. Data from a four-year experiment conducted during the 2003-2004 (five sowing dates), 2004-2005 (five sowing dates), 2005-2006 (three sowing dates), and 2006-2007 (two sowing dates) growing seasons in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil were used. Plants were grown in 12 liter pots during the four years, and in a paddy rice field during the 2006-2007 growing season. Nine cultivated rice genotypes (IRGA 421, IRGA 416, IRGA 417, IRGA 420, BRS 7 TAIM, BR-IRGA 409, EPAGRI 109, an Hybrid, and EEA 406), and two red rice biotypes (awned blackhull- ABHRR, and awned yellowhull-AYHRR) were used. Developmental data available and used in this study were dates of emergence (EM), panicle differentiation (R1), anthesis (R4), and all grains with brown hulls (R9) recorded in five plants per replication in each sowing date. Data collected in the 2004-2005 and 2005-2006 growing season were used to estimate the coefficients of the two models and data collected in the 2003-2004 and 2006-2007 growing season were used as an independent data set for models evaluation. A one hundred years climate scenarios of 0°C, +1°C, +2°C, +3°C, +4°C, and +5°C, with symmetric and asymmetric increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures were created with the LARS-WG Weather Generator using a 1969-2003 database. Date of developmental stages in each climate scenario was calculated with the non-linear model (WE model). The root mean square error (RMSE) for all developmental stages varied from 4.9 to 10.5 days with the thermal time model and from 4.3 to 10.9 days with the WE model. The WE model gave better predictions in six out of eleven genotypes, with better predictions for early (R1) than for later (R4 and R9) developmental stages. The duration of the EM-R1 phase in general decreased whereas the duration of the R1-R4 and R4-R9 phases most often increased as temperature increased in the climate change scenarios. The simulated rice development response to elevated temperature was not the same when the increase in minimum and maximum temperature was symmetric or asymmetric. Current rice genotypes may be less competitive with red rice in future climates. |
publishDate |
2008 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2008-02-28 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2017-05-08 |
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2017-05-08 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
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masterThesis |
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publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
LAGO, Isabel. Rice and red rice development: modeling and response to climate change. 2008. 94 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Agronomia) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2008. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/4972 |
identifier_str_mv |
LAGO, Isabel. Rice and red rice development: modeling and response to climate change. 2008. 94 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Agronomia) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2008. |
url |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/4972 |
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Universidade Federal de Santa Maria |
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UFSM |
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