Previsão hidroambiental integrada do sistema hidrológico do Taim e lagoa Mirim – RS
Ano de defesa: | 2019 |
---|---|
Autor(a) principal: | |
Orientador(a): | |
Banca de defesa: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Idioma: | por |
Instituição de defesa: |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria
Centro de Tecnologia |
Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Civil
|
Departamento: |
Engenharia Civil
|
País: |
Brasil
|
Palavras-chave em Português: | |
Palavras-chave em Inglês: | |
Área do conhecimento CNPq: | |
Link de acesso: | http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/20708 |
Resumo: | The Taim Wetland (BT), located in the extreme south of Brazil, in a region characterized by recurrence of conflicts over water use, which involve region's main economic activity, flood irrigated rice cultivation, and preservation of the aquatic ecosystem present at the BT. Irrigation water withdrawals are made from Mangueira and Mirim lagoons, located upstream and downstream of BT, respectively. These lagoons regulate BT's water exchange and eventually make it more or less able to accommodate the richness of fauna and flora species that depend on it for their survival throughout or part of their life. Water management in this region is necessary for anticipate or mitigate conflicts of this nature, and hydrological forecasting is one of the tools used to assist decision making. Assuming that it is possible to assess future hydrological conditions, considering the interrelationship of water levels with local fauna and flora, it is possible to estimate the environmental condition for the same horizon as the level forecasts. Thus, this work presents a methodology that allows the realization of the hydro-environmental (hydrological plus environmental) forecast for the BT. The hydrological forecast of the BT levels was performed considering the ensemble forecast in the hydrologic-hydrodynamic cell model, which considers the entire Taim Hydrological System (SHT), including Mangueira Lagoon and the downstream influence condition exerted by Mirim Lagoon on the BT levels, although to a lesser extent than Mangueira Lagoon. As a strategy for forecasting, data from the Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM from CPTEC/INPE), the regional statistical model developed for the Rio Grande do Sul State (MRERS from CCPMet/ UFPel) and historical data were used. The best results were obtained for the methodology that used the historical data, which allowed an ensemble forecast with a 12-month horizon, indicating good results for the proposed methodology. For the environmental forecast were considered previously developed Habitat Suitability Indices (HSI), for nine species bioindicators of the BT. For the use of HSI, an alternative methodology based on Suitability Relationships was developed, without the need to model the forecast of environmental suitability considerin specific hydrological conditions. At the end of the process, the hydrological forecast of the the BT was combined with the Suitability Relationships, allowing the identification of the environmental forecast. The feasibility of applying the methodology was presented by conducting a hydro-environmental forecast for the 2019-2020 crop. The application also highlights the strategies used to circumvent the main difficulty observed in the development of the work, related to the lack of data in the region. Due to the influence of Mirim Lagoon on SHT modeling, it was also necessary to develop a statistical model of level forecast for this lagoon, based on monthly levels, precipitation and evaporation data, simplifying the utilization process. More than one regression model had the adequate ability to estimate Mirim Lagoon levels, especially for smaller forecast horizons, as well as for the purposes of fill lack of data and extension of Mirim's historical series of levels. |
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2021-04-27T18:16:07Z2021-04-27T18:16:07Z2019-11-07http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/20708The Taim Wetland (BT), located in the extreme south of Brazil, in a region characterized by recurrence of conflicts over water use, which involve region's main economic activity, flood irrigated rice cultivation, and preservation of the aquatic ecosystem present at the BT. Irrigation water withdrawals are made from Mangueira and Mirim lagoons, located upstream and downstream of BT, respectively. These lagoons regulate BT's water exchange and eventually make it more or less able to accommodate the richness of fauna and flora species that depend on it for their survival throughout or part of their life. Water management in this region is necessary for anticipate or mitigate conflicts of this nature, and hydrological forecasting is one of the tools used to assist decision making. Assuming that it is possible to assess future hydrological conditions, considering the interrelationship of water levels with local fauna and flora, it is possible to estimate the environmental condition for the same horizon as the level forecasts. Thus, this work presents a methodology that allows the realization of the hydro-environmental (hydrological plus environmental) forecast for the BT. The hydrological forecast of the BT levels was performed considering the ensemble forecast in the hydrologic-hydrodynamic cell model, which considers the entire Taim Hydrological System (SHT), including Mangueira Lagoon and the downstream influence condition exerted by Mirim Lagoon on the BT levels, although to a lesser extent than Mangueira Lagoon. As a strategy for forecasting, data from the Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM from CPTEC/INPE), the regional statistical model developed for the Rio Grande do Sul State (MRERS from CCPMet/ UFPel) and historical data were used. The best results were obtained for the methodology that used the historical data, which allowed an ensemble forecast with a 12-month horizon, indicating good results for the proposed methodology. For the environmental forecast were considered previously developed Habitat Suitability Indices (HSI), for nine species bioindicators of the BT. For the use of HSI, an alternative methodology based on Suitability Relationships was developed, without the need to model the forecast of environmental suitability considerin specific hydrological conditions. At the end of the process, the hydrological forecast of the the BT was combined with the Suitability Relationships, allowing the identification of the environmental forecast. The feasibility of applying the methodology was presented by conducting a hydro-environmental forecast for the 2019-2020 crop. The application also highlights the strategies used to circumvent the main difficulty observed in the development of the work, related to the lack of data in the region. Due to the influence of Mirim Lagoon on SHT modeling, it was also necessary to develop a statistical model of level forecast for this lagoon, based on monthly levels, precipitation and evaporation data, simplifying the utilization process. More than one regression model had the adequate ability to estimate Mirim Lagoon levels, especially for smaller forecast horizons, as well as for the purposes of fill lack of data and extension of Mirim's historical series of levels.O Banhado do Taim (BT), localizado no extremo sul do Brasil, está inserido numa região caracterizada pela recorrência de conflitos pelo uso da água, que envolvem a principal atividade econômica da região, a rizicultura irrigada por inundação, e a preservação do ecossistema aquático presente no BT. As retiradas de água para irrigação são feitas das Lagoas Mangueira e Mirim, localizadas a montante e jusante do BT, respectivamente. Estas lagoas regulam as trocas de água do BT e acabam por torná-lo mais ou menos apto a comportar a riqueza de espécies de fauna e flora, que dependem dele para sua sobrevivência durante toda a sua vida ou parte dela. A gestão da água nesta região é fundamental para antecipar ou mitigar conflitos desta natureza, sendo a previsão hidrológica uma das ferramentas utilizadas para auxiliar a tomada de decisões. Partindo do pressuposto de que é possível avaliar condições hidrológicas futuras, se considerada a inter-relação dos níveis de água com a fauna e flora local, é possível estimar a condição ambiental para o mesmo horizonte das previsões de níveis. Assim, nesse trabalho é apresentada uma metodologia que permite a realização da previsão hidroambiental (hidrológica mais ambiental) para o BT. A previsão hidrológica de níveis do BT foi realizada considerando a previsão por conjunto, com a utilização do modelo hidrológico-hidrodinâmico de células, que considera todo o Sistema Hidrológico do Taim (SHT) e a condição de influência de jusante que a Lagoa Mirim exerce sobre os níveis do Banhado. Como estratégia para a previsão foram utilizados dados oriundos do Modelo de Circulação Geral Atmosférico (MCGA, do CPTEC/INPE), o modelo regional estatístico desenvolvido para o Rio Grande do Sul (MRERS, do CCPMet/UFPel) e também de dados históricos. Os melhores resultados foram obtidos para a metodologia que utilizou os dados históricos, que permitiram uma previsão por conjunto com horizonte de 12 meses, indicando bons resultados para a metodologia proposta. Para a previsão ambiental foram considerados Índices de Adequabilidade de Habitat (IAH) previamente desenvolvidos, para nove espécies bioindicadoras do BT. Para a utilização dos IAH, foi desenvolvida uma metodologia alternativa, baseada em Relações de Adequabilidade, sem a necessidade de modelar a previsão da adequabilidade ambiental frente a condições hidrológicas específicas. Ao final do processo, a previsão hidrológica do BT foi combinada com as Relações de Adequabilidade, permitindo a identificação da previsão ambiental. A viabilidade da aplicação da metodologia foi apresentada por meio da realização de uma previsão hidroambiental para a safra 2019-2020. Na aplicação também são destacadas as estratégias utilizadas para contornar a principal dificuldade encontrada no desenvolvimento do trabalho, relacionada à ausência de dados na região. Em razão da influência da Lagoa Mirim na modelagem do SHT, também foi necessário desenvolver um modelo estatístico de previsão de níveis para esta lagoa, baseado em dados de cotas, precipitação e evaporação mensais, simplificando o processo de utilização. Chegou-se a mais de um modelo de regressão com capacidade adequada para prever os níveis da Mirim, especialmente para horizontes menores de previsão, além de servir, também, para os propósitos de preenchimento de falhas e extensão da série histórica dos níveis da Mirim.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPESporUniversidade Federal de Santa MariaCentro de TecnologiaPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia CivilUFSMBrasilEngenharia CivilAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessPrevisão hidroclimáticaPrevisão por conjuntoÍndices de adequabilidade de habitatHydroclimatic forecastEnsemble forecastHabitat suitability indexesCNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVILPrevisão hidroambiental integrada do sistema hidrológico do Taim e lagoa Mirim – RSIntegrated hydro-environmental forecast of Taim hydrological system and Mirim lagoon - RSinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisTassi, Rutineiahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/7584743367186364Silveira, Andressa de OliveiraxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxMarques, David Manuel Lélinho da MottaxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxForgiarini, Francisco RossarollaxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxMarques, Julio Renato Quevedoxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/0770305842020103Paula, Stefany Correia de30010000000360055679fda-98b6-4364-9472-2fb04ac4474fc6d6ef8b-b25e-4b1c-8a42-f0cf03e9f0f06ea6603a-15d9-481f-92e0-2d38f38f81548a1f1220-da30-402b-8ed1-82e342acdb6cfffcfc6a-8ffa-4951-9a96-8549b19f3ad09bbe08d0-c3c5-4d56-a18a-d0651ada21e3reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSMinstname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMORIGINALTES_PPGEC_2019_PAULA_STEFANY.pdfTES_PPGEC_2019_PAULA_STEFANY.pdfTese de Doutoradoapplication/pdf12220152http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/20708/1/TES_PPGEC_2019_PAULA_STEFANY.pdf76725e2026400e16f8f9b84ce85332b3MD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8805http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/20708/2/license_rdf4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-816http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/20708/3/license.txt6eeec7985884eb94336b41cc5308bf0fMD53TEXTTES_PPGEC_2019_PAULA_STEFANY.pdf.txtTES_PPGEC_2019_PAULA_STEFANY.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain421281http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/20708/4/TES_PPGEC_2019_PAULA_STEFANY.pdf.txt64f1cfb860ef143816e5ffdf0edb9fe4MD54THUMBNAILTES_PPGEC_2019_PAULA_STEFANY.pdf.jpgTES_PPGEC_2019_PAULA_STEFANY.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg4018http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/20708/5/TES_PPGEC_2019_PAULA_STEFANY.pdf.jpgbf5ecd091703cec8f7c9b73ee63a19c6MD551/207082021-04-28 03:02:53.267oai:repositorio.ufsm.br:1/20708Q3JlYXRpdmUgQ29tbXVucw==Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/ONGhttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/oai/requestatendimento.sib@ufsm.br||tedebc@gmail.comopendoar:2021-04-28T06:02:53Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Previsão hidroambiental integrada do sistema hidrológico do Taim e lagoa Mirim – RS |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Integrated hydro-environmental forecast of Taim hydrological system and Mirim lagoon - RS |
title |
Previsão hidroambiental integrada do sistema hidrológico do Taim e lagoa Mirim – RS |
spellingShingle |
Previsão hidroambiental integrada do sistema hidrológico do Taim e lagoa Mirim – RS Paula, Stefany Correia de Previsão hidroclimática Previsão por conjunto Índices de adequabilidade de habitat Hydroclimatic forecast Ensemble forecast Habitat suitability indexes CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVIL |
title_short |
Previsão hidroambiental integrada do sistema hidrológico do Taim e lagoa Mirim – RS |
title_full |
Previsão hidroambiental integrada do sistema hidrológico do Taim e lagoa Mirim – RS |
title_fullStr |
Previsão hidroambiental integrada do sistema hidrológico do Taim e lagoa Mirim – RS |
title_full_unstemmed |
Previsão hidroambiental integrada do sistema hidrológico do Taim e lagoa Mirim – RS |
title_sort |
Previsão hidroambiental integrada do sistema hidrológico do Taim e lagoa Mirim – RS |
author |
Paula, Stefany Correia de |
author_facet |
Paula, Stefany Correia de |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Tassi, Rutineia |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/7584743367186364 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Silveira, Andressa de Oliveira |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Marques, David Manuel Lélinho da Motta |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv |
Forgiarini, Francisco Rossarolla |
dc.contributor.referee3Lattes.fl_str_mv |
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
dc.contributor.referee4.fl_str_mv |
Marques, Julio Renato Quevedo |
dc.contributor.referee4Lattes.fl_str_mv |
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/0770305842020103 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Paula, Stefany Correia de |
contributor_str_mv |
Tassi, Rutineia Silveira, Andressa de Oliveira Marques, David Manuel Lélinho da Motta Forgiarini, Francisco Rossarolla Marques, Julio Renato Quevedo |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Previsão hidroclimática Previsão por conjunto Índices de adequabilidade de habitat |
topic |
Previsão hidroclimática Previsão por conjunto Índices de adequabilidade de habitat Hydroclimatic forecast Ensemble forecast Habitat suitability indexes CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVIL |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Hydroclimatic forecast Ensemble forecast Habitat suitability indexes |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVIL |
description |
The Taim Wetland (BT), located in the extreme south of Brazil, in a region characterized by recurrence of conflicts over water use, which involve region's main economic activity, flood irrigated rice cultivation, and preservation of the aquatic ecosystem present at the BT. Irrigation water withdrawals are made from Mangueira and Mirim lagoons, located upstream and downstream of BT, respectively. These lagoons regulate BT's water exchange and eventually make it more or less able to accommodate the richness of fauna and flora species that depend on it for their survival throughout or part of their life. Water management in this region is necessary for anticipate or mitigate conflicts of this nature, and hydrological forecasting is one of the tools used to assist decision making. Assuming that it is possible to assess future hydrological conditions, considering the interrelationship of water levels with local fauna and flora, it is possible to estimate the environmental condition for the same horizon as the level forecasts. Thus, this work presents a methodology that allows the realization of the hydro-environmental (hydrological plus environmental) forecast for the BT. The hydrological forecast of the BT levels was performed considering the ensemble forecast in the hydrologic-hydrodynamic cell model, which considers the entire Taim Hydrological System (SHT), including Mangueira Lagoon and the downstream influence condition exerted by Mirim Lagoon on the BT levels, although to a lesser extent than Mangueira Lagoon. As a strategy for forecasting, data from the Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM from CPTEC/INPE), the regional statistical model developed for the Rio Grande do Sul State (MRERS from CCPMet/ UFPel) and historical data were used. The best results were obtained for the methodology that used the historical data, which allowed an ensemble forecast with a 12-month horizon, indicating good results for the proposed methodology. For the environmental forecast were considered previously developed Habitat Suitability Indices (HSI), for nine species bioindicators of the BT. For the use of HSI, an alternative methodology based on Suitability Relationships was developed, without the need to model the forecast of environmental suitability considerin specific hydrological conditions. At the end of the process, the hydrological forecast of the the BT was combined with the Suitability Relationships, allowing the identification of the environmental forecast. The feasibility of applying the methodology was presented by conducting a hydro-environmental forecast for the 2019-2020 crop. The application also highlights the strategies used to circumvent the main difficulty observed in the development of the work, related to the lack of data in the region. Due to the influence of Mirim Lagoon on SHT modeling, it was also necessary to develop a statistical model of level forecast for this lagoon, based on monthly levels, precipitation and evaporation data, simplifying the utilization process. More than one regression model had the adequate ability to estimate Mirim Lagoon levels, especially for smaller forecast horizons, as well as for the purposes of fill lack of data and extension of Mirim's historical series of levels. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2019-11-07 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2021-04-27T18:16:07Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2021-04-27T18:16:07Z |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
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doctoralThesis |
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publishedVersion |
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http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/20708 |
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http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/20708 |
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por |
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por |
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300100000003 |
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600 |
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openAccess |
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Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Tecnologia |
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Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Civil |
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UFSM |
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Brasil |
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Engenharia Civil |
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Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Tecnologia |
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