Impactos dos subsídios agrícolas dos Estados Unidos no crescimento do agronegócio brasileiro

• Ano de defesa: 2007
• Autor(a) principal: Figueiredo, Adelson Martins
• Orientador(a): Santos, Maurinho Luiz dos
• Banca de defesa: Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro , Almeida, Eduardo Simões de , Teixeira, Erly Cardoso
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Viçosa
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Doutorado em Economia Aplicada
• Departamento: Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos
• País: BR
• Palavras-chave em Português: Subsídios agrícolas; Agronegócio; Bem-estar; Brasil; Estados Unidos
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Agricultural subsidies; Agribusiness; Well-being; Brazil; United States of America
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL::RELACOES DO COMERCIO; POLITICA COMERCIAL; INTEGRACAO ECONOMICA
• Link de acesso: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/164

The multilateral negotiations of the Agricultural Agreement on the Uruguay Round, stated that the developed countries should reduce the subsidies to the agricultural sector in 20%. Despite that, the United States of America (USA) has almost triplicated the amount of subsidies to the agricultural production ever since. Then, the reduction of the American subsidies has been discussed in the World Trade Organization Forums, and this discussion has been increased since the Doha round, initiated in November, 2001. Brazil is directly affected by the amount of subsidies in USA and other developed countries, once its agribusiness represents about 30% of the total GDP and about 40% of the total exported value. This research shed some light on the discussion of the effects of the American agricultural subsidies on the Brazilian GDP growth, under the hypothesis that the subsidies distort the relative price between Brazil and USA and cause competitiveness losses on the Brazilian agricultural sector. To attain more specific results it was firstly used an Applied General Equilibrium Model for the Brazilian and American economies and ex post it was used hypothesis of constant market share to measure the competitiveness changes on the Brazilian agricultural sector. Moreover, it was calculated possible changes on the bilateral currency exchange rate between Brazil and USA. To proceed these analyses it was supposed scenarios of subsidies reduction in USA measured through the selected agricultural policies: Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP), Marketing Loss Assistance (MLA) and Counter Cyclical Payment (CCP). The results showed that reducing the subsidies in USA would reduce its agribusiness sector and would expand the Brazilian one. Distortions on the relative prices between those countries were identified mainly for Soybean, Maize, Sugar and Alcohol and Other Agricultural Products industries. It was confirmed through the changes in the bilateral currency exchange rate that the distortions are more significant in some specific sectors rather than for the whole economy. The Brazilian exports would increase due to competitiveness gains, measured in terms of performance and efficiency levels. Reductions on the subsidies in USA up to US$3,51 billion would raise well-being of the American households that would compensate the GDP contraction. Reductions between US$3,51 and US$10 billion still increase the American household s gains but it would not compensate the GDP loss. Reductions over US$ 10 billion would cause both households well-being and GDP losses. Regard to Brazil, the reduction of the subsidies through LDP, CCP and MLA would raise the GDP and the per capita welfare from R$7,91 to R$9,58, and from R$4,68 to R$6,08 respectively. It is concluded that the establishment of Doha Round Negotiation, with reduction on the American subsidies would increase the competitiveness of the Brazilian agribusiness, GDP and the Brazilian households well being.