Criminalidade violenta em Minas Gerais: uma proposta de alocação de recursos em segurança pública

• Ano de defesa: 2007
• Autor(a) principal: Scalco, Paulo Roberto
• Orientador(a): Gomes, Adriano Provezano
• Banca de defesa: Braga, Marcelo José , Dias, Roberto Serpa , Fontes, Rosa Maria Olivera , Toyoshima, Sílvia Harumi
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Viçosa
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Mestrado em Economia
• Departamento: Desenvolvimento econômico e Políticas públicas
• País: BR
• Palavras-chave em Português: Criminalidade; Segurança pública; Políticas públicas; Alocação de recursos
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Criminality; Public security; Public policies; Resources reallocation
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::METODOS QUANTITATIVOS EM ECONOMIA
• Link de acesso: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/3292

The present article had as purpose to introduce a new proposal of combat the criminality in Minas Gerais, based on replacement of public security resources. The proposal idea is to place the resources on the basis of definite criteria that reflects the real necessity of each city, added the pointers of efficiency, thus creating one ranking of necessities of resources between the 851 analyzed cities from Minas Gerais. To do so, first of all, a study was developed on the evolution and spread of crime during the period of 1986 to 2005 in the state of Minas Gerais. Through the Gini coefficient, coefficient of variation and techniques of analysis exploratory spatial data, it was possible to check that, on average, rates of crime increased more than 459% in the reporting period, only the rates of violent crimes against property grew exceeding 1,000%. However, there was bigger distribution of the rates between the small municipalities, through the Gini coefficient, a tendency of convergence and consequent homogenization of rates among mineiras municipalities. Although the size of the municipalities is determining factor in the rates of crime, this tendency of homogenization has occurred at the expense of increased rates of crime in smaller municipalities in the state. The found results using the techniques of econometrics spatial evidence the existence of spatial dependence among mineiras municipalities. Therefore, we could confirm, on average, municipality with high rates of criminality is surrounded by other with the same high rates of criminality; the formation of four spatial clusters could be noticed for rates of violent crimes against people and against patrimony. The study allowed the identification of some important characteristics that might be considered in any public security policy. On that context, a new proposal of resources replacement in public security was created which consists on the utilization of spatial rates of criminality, that collect spatial dependency observed among the cities, beyond to consider the size and the efficiency technique on the allocation of the resources of each city. Thereby, the showed proposal consist on a dynamic model that tends to be stable at equitable equilibrium point, for the cities with higher criminality rates and efficiency technique tend to receive more resources in a first moment; however, the variables used present relative values, It is expected that in a second moment these cities come to present a reduction of criminality rates and efficiency. This way, as the cities that were contemplated with more resources tend to decrease theses indicators, the needing to allocate more resources become from other cities that didn t receive any resource in a first moment. The realized simulation to Minas Gerais pointed out that currently the cities that would need resource would be Uberlândia, Montes Claros, Contagem, Sete Lagoas and Betim, respectively, those that would need less would be Belo Horizonte, Governador Valadares, Ipatinga, Barbacena and Juiz de Fora. The expectation is that adopting this policy, long term, either criminality rates even social inequalities observed will decrease.