Os determinantes da oferta e da demanda de etanol nos estados brasileiros

• Ano de defesa: 2011
• Autor(a) principal: Randow, Bruno Maciel Von
• Orientador(a): Fontes, Rosa Maria Olivera
• Banca de defesa: Cassuce, Francisco Carlos da Cunha , Teixeira, Erly Cardoso
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Viçosa
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Mestrado em Economia
• Departamento: Desenvolvimento econômico e Políticas públicas
• País: BR
• Palavras-chave em Português: Biocombustíveis; Desenvolvimento sustentável; Matriz energética; Recursos naturais
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Biofuels; Sustainable development; Energy matrix; Natural resources
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIAS AGRARIA E DOS RECURSOS NATURAIS::ECONOMIA DOS RECURSOS NATURAIS
• Link de acesso: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/3259

Over the past 30 years, there was a global movement seeking to develop energy sources that could reduce the dependence of petroleum products. In this sense, biofuels, especially ethanol, have gained prominence in the world energy market. In Brazil, after PROÁLCOOL, and more recently, dual-fuel vehicles, the ethanol has been established as a competitor for gasoline in the light vehicles fuel market. This study searches to estimate the determinants of supply and demand of ethanol for the Brazilian states from 2001 to 2008. Since the economic theory dictates that price and quantity are defined simultaneously on the equilibrium of demand and supply curves, and also that the data used refers to more than one state over eight years, a simultaneously panel data model was estimated. The results shown that there is no simultaneity in the determination of price and quantities demanded and supplied (lagged in one period) of ethanol. Estimates indicate that the demand for ethanol is price elastic and that ethanol and gasoline has to be considered imperfect substitutes. Due to the less than 1 and positive coefficient, it also shown that ethanol has to be considered a normal good. It was confirmed the importance of the growing fleet of vehicles for the growth of ethanol demand and the hypothesis of the price elasticities has changed after the introduction of dual-fuel vehicles. It was also confirmed the hypothesis of differences in elasticities between non-producers and ethanol producers states. Since ethanol production is heavily concentrated in the Mid-South, the supply was estimated for the 7 major domestic producers was estimated, finding results consistent with the economic theory. Thus, like the demand, the supply of ethanol was also price-elastic in the short run, although price-inelastic in the long run. The negative sign found for the prices of sugar and sugar-cane and the supply of anhydrous ethanol was expected by the theory, being the anhydrous ethanol's supply the main competitor of hydrated ethanol.