O mercado de câmbio e a taxa de câmbio na economia brasileira: 1999 a 2007
Ano de defesa: | 2008 |
---|---|
Autor(a) principal: | |
Orientador(a): | |
Banca de defesa: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Idioma: | por |
Instituição de defesa: |
Universidade Federal de Viçosa
|
Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Doutorado em Economia Aplicada
|
Departamento: |
Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos
|
País: |
BR
|
Palavras-chave em Português: | |
Palavras-chave em Inglês: | |
Área do conhecimento CNPq: | |
Link de acesso: | http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/104 |
Resumo: | The process of commercial opening and flexible of capital account, started in the 1990 s, ally to the adoption of a regimen of floating change, since of January of 1999 and transformed the tax of change in one of the main Brazilian economic variables. Faced with that, this work analyzed the impacts of variations in the tax of change on the other economic variables as interest rates internal, liquid exportations, internal prices, and value of the production. It becomes more interesting, when it s considered that in the period of analyze of January of 1999 to March of 2007, invigorated a regimen of floating change. The results presented by the political monetary, and fiscal in that regimen would be differentiated to the others that would occur in a regimen of controlled change, that invigorated, practically, in the last fifty years in the Brazilian economy. However, the Brazilian exchange market can present some bias that would be generated, for example, by the existence of a prize of significantly volatile exchange risk, the occurrence of error and shunting of the rational expectations and the simultaneity between the interest rates internal and the tax of change. Send asset, it was verified the existence of each one of those bias, concluding that only of the simultaneity bias occurred in the period. The result, ally to the agents of the market of Brazilian change form his expectations rationally, and it was possible to conclude that the consideration of the simultaneity between the tax of change and the interest rates internal, the Brazilian exchange market would be being efficient in the period analyzed. To eliminate of the simultaneity bias, was utilized the methodology of simultaneous equations considering the Two-Stage Least Squares Estimator. In short, the result that refers to the verification of the bias in the market of change enabled to conclude that the prize of exchange risk exists, in the period of analyze, but he doesn t vary significantly to the point to influence the determination of the tax of change. And it wasn t possible reject the hypothesis that the agents of the market of change act in a rational way. Still occurring governmental interventions in that market, verified by the estimate of an index of intervention for period analyzed, the information that refer to those interventions were assimilated by the agents in a way to eliminate this bias. It was remained only the simultaneity bias that was eliminated by the estimation by Two-Stage Least Squares. Incorporating the information of simultaneously, it was estimated a monetary model containing the equations of parity discovered by the interest, of the equilibrium in the market of currency, and property, of the parity of the power of purchase, and of the liquid exportations for the period of January of 1999 to March of 2007. Then, simulations were realized, and were enabled to conclude that variations in the tax of change affect significantly the level of the interest rate internal, of the liquid exportations, and consequently, of the Brazilian production. And it was possible to observe that the political monetary, represented by variations in the interest rate had bigger influence on the production than political fiscal. The work enabled to verify also, that although the liquid exportations have been the main responsible for the growth of the Brazilian economy in the period, his effects practically were annulled by the high interest rate practiced, and that small reductions in the interest rate internal are capable to generate a stimulus considerably bigger on the growth of the production, if it is compared with variations of same magnitude on the liquid exportations. |
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Cassuce, Francisco Carlos da CunhaBraga, Marcelo Joséhttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4798666D3Carvalho, Fátima Marília Andrade dehttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4788650U3Campos, Antônio Carvalhohttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4781810A0Rocha, Luiz Eduardo de Vasconceloshttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4728885P0Silva, Orlando Monteiro dahttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4781281D9Lírio, Viviani Silvahttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4763739E6Fontes, Rosa Maria Oliverahttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4783412T62015-03-19T19:35:01Z2008-07-172015-03-19T19:35:01Z2008-02-20CASSUCE, Francisco Carlos da Cunha. The market exchange and the exchange rate in Brazilian economy: 1999 the 2007. 2008. 205 f. Tese (Doutorado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2008.http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/104The process of commercial opening and flexible of capital account, started in the 1990 s, ally to the adoption of a regimen of floating change, since of January of 1999 and transformed the tax of change in one of the main Brazilian economic variables. Faced with that, this work analyzed the impacts of variations in the tax of change on the other economic variables as interest rates internal, liquid exportations, internal prices, and value of the production. It becomes more interesting, when it s considered that in the period of analyze of January of 1999 to March of 2007, invigorated a regimen of floating change. The results presented by the political monetary, and fiscal in that regimen would be differentiated to the others that would occur in a regimen of controlled change, that invigorated, practically, in the last fifty years in the Brazilian economy. However, the Brazilian exchange market can present some bias that would be generated, for example, by the existence of a prize of significantly volatile exchange risk, the occurrence of error and shunting of the rational expectations and the simultaneity between the interest rates internal and the tax of change. Send asset, it was verified the existence of each one of those bias, concluding that only of the simultaneity bias occurred in the period. The result, ally to the agents of the market of Brazilian change form his expectations rationally, and it was possible to conclude that the consideration of the simultaneity between the tax of change and the interest rates internal, the Brazilian exchange market would be being efficient in the period analyzed. To eliminate of the simultaneity bias, was utilized the methodology of simultaneous equations considering the Two-Stage Least Squares Estimator. In short, the result that refers to the verification of the bias in the market of change enabled to conclude that the prize of exchange risk exists, in the period of analyze, but he doesn t vary significantly to the point to influence the determination of the tax of change. And it wasn t possible reject the hypothesis that the agents of the market of change act in a rational way. Still occurring governmental interventions in that market, verified by the estimate of an index of intervention for period analyzed, the information that refer to those interventions were assimilated by the agents in a way to eliminate this bias. It was remained only the simultaneity bias that was eliminated by the estimation by Two-Stage Least Squares. Incorporating the information of simultaneously, it was estimated a monetary model containing the equations of parity discovered by the interest, of the equilibrium in the market of currency, and property, of the parity of the power of purchase, and of the liquid exportations for the period of January of 1999 to March of 2007. Then, simulations were realized, and were enabled to conclude that variations in the tax of change affect significantly the level of the interest rate internal, of the liquid exportations, and consequently, of the Brazilian production. And it was possible to observe that the political monetary, represented by variations in the interest rate had bigger influence on the production than political fiscal. The work enabled to verify also, that although the liquid exportations have been the main responsible for the growth of the Brazilian economy in the period, his effects practically were annulled by the high interest rate practiced, and that small reductions in the interest rate internal are capable to generate a stimulus considerably bigger on the growth of the production, if it is compared with variations of same magnitude on the liquid exportations.O processo de abertura comercial e de flexibilização da conta capital, iniciado nos anos 1990, aliado à adoção de um regime de câmbio flutuante a partir de janeiro de 1999, fizeram da taxa de câmbio uma das principais variáveis econômicas brasileiras. Diante disso, este trabalho analisou os impactos de variações na taxa de câmbio sobre as demais variáveis econômicas como taxa interna de juros, exportações líquidas, preços internos e valor da produção. Isso se torna ainda mais interessante quando é levado em consideração que no período da análise, de janeiro de 1999 a março de 2007, vigorou um regime de câmbio flutuante. Os resultados apresentados pelas políticas monetária e fiscal nesse regime seriam significativamente diferenciados aos que ocorreriam em um regime de câmbio controlado, que vigorou, praticamente, nos últimos cinqüenta anos na economia brasileira. Contudo, o mercado cambial brasileiro pode apresentar alguns vieses que seriam gerados, por exemplo, pela existência de um prêmio de risco cambial significativamente volátil, a ocorrência de erros e/ou desvios das expectativas racionais e a desconsideração da simultaneidade entre a taxa interna de juros e a taxa de câmbio. Sendo assim, verificou-se a existência de cada um desses vieses, concluindo que apenas o viés de simultaneidade ocorreu no período. Esse resultado, aliado ao de que os agentes do mercado de câmbio brasileiro formam suas expectativas racionalmente, possibilitou concluir que, ao considerar a simultaneidade entre a taxa de câmbio e a taxa interna de juros, o mercado cambial brasileiro estaria sendo eficiente no período analisado. Para eliminar o viés de simultaneidade foi utilizada a metodologia de equações simultâneas, valendo-se do estimador de Mínimos Quadrados em Dois Estágios (MQ2E). Em suma, o resultado referente à verificação de viés no mercado de câmbio possibilitou concluir que o prêmio de rico cambial existe, no período da análise, mas, ele não varia significativamente a ponto de influenciar a determinação da taxa de câmbio. Além disso, não foi possível rejeitar a hipótese de que os agentes do mercado de câmbio agem de forma racional. Mesmo ocorrendo intervenções governamentais nesse mercado, comprovado pela estimativa de um índice de intervenção para período analisado, as informações referentes à essas intervenções foram assimiladas pelos agentes de modo a eliminar esse viés. Restou apenas o viés de simultaneidade, eliminado pela estimação por MQ2E. Incorporando a informação da simultaneidade, foi estimado um modelo monetário contendo as equações da paridade descoberta dos juros, do equilíbrio no mercado de moeda e de bens, da paridade do poder de compra e das exportações líquidas, para o período de janeiro de 1999 a março de 2007. A partir daí foram realizadas simulações que possibilitaram concluir que variações na taxa de câmbio afetam significativamente o nível da taxa interna de juros, das exportações líquidas e, consequentemente, da produção brasileira. Além disso, foi possível observar que as políticas monetárias, representada por variações na taxa de juros, tiveram maior influência sobre a produção do que políticas fiscais. O trabalho possibilitou verificar também que, embora as exportações líquidas tenha sido a grande responsável pelo crescimento da economia brasileira no período, seus efeitos foram praticamente anulados pelas altas taxas de juros praticadas e, que pequenas reduções nos juros internos são capazes de gerar um estímulo consideravelmente maior sobre o crescimento da produção, se comparado com variações de mesma magnitude sobre as exportações líquidas.application/pdfporUniversidade Federal de ViçosaDoutorado em Economia AplicadaUFVBREconomia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos RecursosTaxa de câmbioViés no mercado de câmbioSimultaneidadeExchange rateMarket exchangeSimultaneityCNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONALO mercado de câmbio e a taxa de câmbio na economia brasileira: 1999 a 2007The market exchange and the exchange rate in Brazilian economy: 1999 the 2007info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFVinstname:Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)instacron:UFVORIGINALtexto completo.pdfapplication/pdf709026https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/104/1/texto%20completo.pdfe6e4f9f5b4da5861305b069cad96ac4cMD51TEXTtexto completo.pdf.txttexto completo.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain376699https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/104/2/texto%20completo.pdf.txt7cbc8322e8b5935aa853835abb5d2513MD52THUMBNAILtexto completo.pdf.jpgtexto completo.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg3612https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/104/3/texto%20completo.pdf.jpg605cd2e3fc58ace4533d48d1ec366a3eMD53123456789/1042016-04-06 07:59:34.677oai:locus.ufv.br:123456789/104Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.locus.ufv.br/oai/requestfabiojreis@ufv.bropendoar:21452016-04-06T10:59:34LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
O mercado de câmbio e a taxa de câmbio na economia brasileira: 1999 a 2007 |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
The market exchange and the exchange rate in Brazilian economy: 1999 the 2007 |
title |
O mercado de câmbio e a taxa de câmbio na economia brasileira: 1999 a 2007 |
spellingShingle |
O mercado de câmbio e a taxa de câmbio na economia brasileira: 1999 a 2007 Cassuce, Francisco Carlos da Cunha Taxa de câmbio Viés no mercado de câmbio Simultaneidade Exchange rate Market exchange Simultaneity CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL |
title_short |
O mercado de câmbio e a taxa de câmbio na economia brasileira: 1999 a 2007 |
title_full |
O mercado de câmbio e a taxa de câmbio na economia brasileira: 1999 a 2007 |
title_fullStr |
O mercado de câmbio e a taxa de câmbio na economia brasileira: 1999 a 2007 |
title_full_unstemmed |
O mercado de câmbio e a taxa de câmbio na economia brasileira: 1999 a 2007 |
title_sort |
O mercado de câmbio e a taxa de câmbio na economia brasileira: 1999 a 2007 |
author |
Cassuce, Francisco Carlos da Cunha |
author_facet |
Cassuce, Francisco Carlos da Cunha |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Cassuce, Francisco Carlos da Cunha |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv |
Braga, Marcelo José |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4798666D3 |
dc.contributor.advisor-co2.fl_str_mv |
Carvalho, Fátima Marília Andrade de |
dc.contributor.advisor-co2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4788650U3 |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Campos, Antônio Carvalho |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4781810A0 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Rocha, Luiz Eduardo de Vasconcelos |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4728885P0 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Silva, Orlando Monteiro da |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4781281D9 |
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv |
Lírio, Viviani Silva |
dc.contributor.referee3Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4763739E6 |
dc.contributor.referee4.fl_str_mv |
Fontes, Rosa Maria Olivera |
dc.contributor.referee4Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4783412T6 |
contributor_str_mv |
Braga, Marcelo José Carvalho, Fátima Marília Andrade de Campos, Antônio Carvalho Rocha, Luiz Eduardo de Vasconcelos Silva, Orlando Monteiro da Lírio, Viviani Silva Fontes, Rosa Maria Olivera |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Taxa de câmbio Viés no mercado de câmbio Simultaneidade |
topic |
Taxa de câmbio Viés no mercado de câmbio Simultaneidade Exchange rate Market exchange Simultaneity CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Exchange rate Market exchange Simultaneity |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL |
description |
The process of commercial opening and flexible of capital account, started in the 1990 s, ally to the adoption of a regimen of floating change, since of January of 1999 and transformed the tax of change in one of the main Brazilian economic variables. Faced with that, this work analyzed the impacts of variations in the tax of change on the other economic variables as interest rates internal, liquid exportations, internal prices, and value of the production. It becomes more interesting, when it s considered that in the period of analyze of January of 1999 to March of 2007, invigorated a regimen of floating change. The results presented by the political monetary, and fiscal in that regimen would be differentiated to the others that would occur in a regimen of controlled change, that invigorated, practically, in the last fifty years in the Brazilian economy. However, the Brazilian exchange market can present some bias that would be generated, for example, by the existence of a prize of significantly volatile exchange risk, the occurrence of error and shunting of the rational expectations and the simultaneity between the interest rates internal and the tax of change. Send asset, it was verified the existence of each one of those bias, concluding that only of the simultaneity bias occurred in the period. The result, ally to the agents of the market of Brazilian change form his expectations rationally, and it was possible to conclude that the consideration of the simultaneity between the tax of change and the interest rates internal, the Brazilian exchange market would be being efficient in the period analyzed. To eliminate of the simultaneity bias, was utilized the methodology of simultaneous equations considering the Two-Stage Least Squares Estimator. In short, the result that refers to the verification of the bias in the market of change enabled to conclude that the prize of exchange risk exists, in the period of analyze, but he doesn t vary significantly to the point to influence the determination of the tax of change. And it wasn t possible reject the hypothesis that the agents of the market of change act in a rational way. Still occurring governmental interventions in that market, verified by the estimate of an index of intervention for period analyzed, the information that refer to those interventions were assimilated by the agents in a way to eliminate this bias. It was remained only the simultaneity bias that was eliminated by the estimation by Two-Stage Least Squares. Incorporating the information of simultaneously, it was estimated a monetary model containing the equations of parity discovered by the interest, of the equilibrium in the market of currency, and property, of the parity of the power of purchase, and of the liquid exportations for the period of January of 1999 to March of 2007. Then, simulations were realized, and were enabled to conclude that variations in the tax of change affect significantly the level of the interest rate internal, of the liquid exportations, and consequently, of the Brazilian production. And it was possible to observe that the political monetary, represented by variations in the interest rate had bigger influence on the production than political fiscal. The work enabled to verify also, that although the liquid exportations have been the main responsible for the growth of the Brazilian economy in the period, his effects practically were annulled by the high interest rate practiced, and that small reductions in the interest rate internal are capable to generate a stimulus considerably bigger on the growth of the production, if it is compared with variations of same magnitude on the liquid exportations. |
publishDate |
2008 |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2008-07-17 2015-03-19T19:35:01Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2008-02-20 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2015-03-19T19:35:01Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
format |
doctoralThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
CASSUCE, Francisco Carlos da Cunha. The market exchange and the exchange rate in Brazilian economy: 1999 the 2007. 2008. 205 f. Tese (Doutorado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2008. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/104 |
identifier_str_mv |
CASSUCE, Francisco Carlos da Cunha. The market exchange and the exchange rate in Brazilian economy: 1999 the 2007. 2008. 205 f. Tese (Doutorado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2008. |
url |
http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/104 |
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por |
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Universidade Federal de Viçosa |
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Doutorado em Economia Aplicada |
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UFV |
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BR |
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Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos |
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Universidade Federal de Viçosa |
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