Eventos Climáticos Extremos: os efeitos dos fenômenos El Niño e La Niña sobre a produtividade agrícola das regiões Nordeste e Sul do Brasil

• Ano de defesa: 2012
• Autor(a) principal: Araujo, Paulo Henrique Cirino
• Orientador(a): Feres, José Gustavo
• Banca de defesa: Costa, Marcos Heil , Castro, Rudi Rocha de
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Viçosa
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Mestrado em Economia Aplicada
• Departamento: Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos
• País: BR
• Palavras-chave em Português: El Ninõ; La Ninã; Produtividade agrícola; Oceano pacífico
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: El Ninõ; La Ninã; Agricultural productivity; Pacific Ocean
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIAS AGRARIA E DOS RECURSOS NATURAIS::ECONOMIA AGRARIA
• Link de acesso: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/68

Extreme weather events can be understood as occurrences in a given year, floods, storms, frosts, heat waves and even prolonged droughts. The frequency of these events is attributed in most cases to the El Niño and La Niña, which in turn are derived from variations in the sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean.The consequences of these changes in the Pacific Ocean are forthright about the levels of temperature and rainfall on the planet and, in many respects, tend to affect those sectors of the economy dependent on the weather. In the case of agriculture, the whole performance, in terms of productivity, is affected by changes in temperature and precipitation levels.In order to evaluate the effects of El Niño and La Niña on the performance of agricultural productivity, the present study aimed to study the average level of productivity of crops of sugar cane, rice, beans, wheat, maize and cassava under the influence of changes in rainfall and temperature. As a focus of the study was selected the Northeast and southern Brazil.From panel regressions, we estimated the effects of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean on the regime of precipitation and temperature levels of each Brazilian municipality. In a second step, was related to the levels observed temperature and precipitation with the average productivity of each culture studied by panel models with fixed effects. Finally, when related to estimates found in the first and second stage of the estimation, the product was the variation in average yield resulting from changes caused by El Niño and La Niña.The main results found point that Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul were those most harmed by the occurrence of phenomena El Niño and La Niña. Neles it was verified that productivity levels of corn and soybeans were significantly reduced, so that, some municipalities these regions, may register the total commitment of their crops. Overall, losses were found for almost all cultures studied in the two regions.