Estimação da Sensibilidade e Especificidade de Testes Diagnósticos da Brucelose Bovina via lnferência Bayesiana

• Ano de defesa: 2014
• Autor(a) principal: Souza, Márcio Rodrigues dos Santos
• Orientador(a): Silva, Carlos Henrique Osório
• Banca de defesa: Nascimento, Moysés , Silva, Antônio Fernando Pêgo e
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Viçosa
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Mestrado em Estatística Aplicada e Biometria
• Departamento: Estatística Aplicada e Biometria
• País: BR
• Palavras-chave em Português: Teoria bayesiana de decisão estatística; Estatística; Testes; Brucelose - Diagnóstico; Amostragem - Estatística
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Bayesian statistical decision theory; Statistics; Tests; Brucellosis - Diagnosis; Sampling - Statistics
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::PROBABILIDADE E ESTATISTICA::ESTATISTICA
• Link de acesso: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/4081

Brucellosis is an infectious and contagious disease caused by bacteria of the genus Bru- ceIIa. It produces a characteristic infection in animals and may aIso contaminate humans. The tests used for diagnosis of bruceIIosis in Brazil are conducted in samples obtained from animals suspected of having the disease, sIaughtered or that died at the farm. In Brazil there are few vaIidation studies of diagnostic tests for bruceIIosis presenting statistical methodologies for the estimation of sensitivity and Specificity satisfactorily. The present work used the methodology proposed by Joseph, Gyorkos e Coupal (1995) to obtain es- timates of sensitivity and Specificity of screening test Buffered Acidified Antigen (AAT) and confirmatory tests Mercaptoethanol (2-ME) and Bacteriological Diagnosis (DBAC), these tests are in accordance with the National Program for Control and Eradication of AnimaI Brucellosis and Tuberculosis (PNCEBT), which began in Brazil in 2001. The study was complemented with comparisons of the estimates in three different scenario: (i) when the resuIt of onIy one test is avaiIabIe (ii) when results of two test are avaiIabIe, and (iii) results of three tests. The data contained samples from 175 animaIs, obtained by convenience from material sent from aII regions of BraziI, to the Laboratory of Diag- nosis of Bacterial Diseases of LANAGRO-MG, between the years 2008-2011. Statistical computations and Gibbs Sampler algorithm were impIemented in OpenBUGS. Results showed that the estimated prevalence of bovine bruceIIosis in suspected animals is 79%, which means that for every 100 animals suspected of having the disease, 79 are diagnosed with it. Regarding performance measures, AAT was more sensitive for diagnosing Bovine BruceIIosis, 2-ME more Specific for not diagnosing Bovine Brucellosis and DBac showed 100% specific for not diagnosing the disease and Iess sensitive for diagnosing the disease.