Exportações e crescimento econômico: uma análise da economia brasileira no período entre 1962 e 2009

• Ano de defesa: 2011
• Autor(a) principal: Carvalho, Henrique Duarte
• Orientador(a): Campos, Antônio Carvalho
• Banca de defesa: Fernandes, Elaine Aparecida , Lima, João Eustáquio de , Mattos, Leonardo Bornacki de , Vasconcelos, Cláudio Roberto Fóffano
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Viçosa
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Doutorado em Economia Aplicada
• Departamento: Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos
• País: BR
• Palavras-chave em Português: Exportações; Crescimento econômico; Restrição do balanço de pagamentos
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Exports; Economic growth; Restrictions on the balance of payments
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS
• Link de acesso: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/143

The main focus of this study is to evaluate the relationship between foreign economic growth and production of positive trade balances, which makes the export growth as a determinant of the Brazilian economic growth. Initially, in order to observe the characteristics of Brazilian exports, this study estimates the patterns of diversification and traditionalism of exports and then tests empirically the relationship between exports and economic growth for Brazil in the period between 1962 and 2009. With the information about the characteristics of exports, it was verified that the Brazilian trade balances were responsible for growth restrictions of the economy, and also that the results led to observe the potential for growth promoted by positive external balances. To verify the growth rate determined by conditions on the balance of payments constraint this study used the model developed by Thirlwall, where the growth rate of a country can be estimated by the ratio between the growth rate of exports and incomeelasticity of imports. This study estimates the rate of Brazilian economic growth consistent with the balance of external accounts using three methods, the Engle-Granger cointegration test, the cointegration test using Johansen´s methodology and a methodology that had not been used so far in the corresponding literature, using techniques to panel data for the export sectors of the Brazilian economy, so that, it is possible to have a more general view of the balance-of-payment constrained growth. From the initial results it was possible to observe a close relationship between the world income growth, domestic income and exports. It was observed that the Brazilian economy grew at a rate below his potential for almost the entire period between 1962 and 2009, with growth rates compatible with the balance of external accounts between 4.45% and 6.45% per year, both exceeding the growth rate of 4.41% per year observed, which indicates the possibility of greater economic growth without providing restrictions caused by problems on balance of payments. It was confirmed by the results that the solution to raise the growth rate of Brazil, observing the equilibrium of the balance of payments is the promotion of exports in order to raise the income-elasticity of exports faster than the growth of income-elasticity of imports. Accordingly, we analyze the way in which changes in income and prices affect exports, measuring the contributions of the export sectors to the economic growth process in Brazil, the estimated elasticities suggest important differences between the exporting sectors and that the effects of world income exceeds price effects in explaining the Brazilian exports growth. To measure the magnitude of these effects in practice it was estimated the depreciation of the exchange rate consistent with trade balance equilibrium, when this rate is compared to the real exchange rate allows us to observe the sensitivity of Brazilian exports face to exchange rate policies and world income variation. The results show that external demand and the misalignment introduced by the real exchange rate in relation to the rate consistent with the equilibrium of trade balance are major factors that influence the dynamics and performance of Brazilian exports. An emphasis should be given to the positive influence of foreign income in the Brazilian exports and the conclusion that maintaining a level of real exchange rate to maintain profitability and competitiveness of exports is essential, but may not be enough for the expansion of exports over time.