Efeitos da instabilidade da taxa de câmbio no comércio setorial entre Brasil e seus principais parceiros comerciais

• Ano de defesa: 2013
• Autor(a) principal: Bittencourt, Geraldo Moreira
• Orientador(a): Campos, Antônio Carvalho
• Banca de defesa: Lírio, Viviani Silva , Casali, Giovana Figueiredo Rossi
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Viçosa
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Mestrado em Economia Aplicada
• Departamento: Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos
• País: BR
• Palavras-chave em Português: Incerteza cambial; Exportações; Importações; Parceiros comerciais
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Exchange rate uncertainty; Exports and Imports; Trading partners
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL
• Link de acesso: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/70

The exchange rate is considered one of the most important variables of an open economy in its relationship with the outside world. However, the increased financial market integration, the spread of floating exchange rate system and trade liberalization wave of the 1980s and early 1990s exposed the developed and developing large swings in exchange rates. As a result, the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows are increasingly becoming of particular interest to many researchers and policymakers. In Brazil, foreign trade has reached record numbers of exports and imports, with China, USA, Argentina, Netherlands, Japan, Germany and Chile's main trading partners in the sectors of machinery and transport equipment, manufactured goods, metals and minerals, agricultural and chemical. However, it is noteworthy that Brazil and its trading partners have gone through different stages of economic instability and consequent fluctuations of prices and exchange rate, which has affected trade and investment allocation. Against this backdrop of uncertainty in foreign exchange and evolution of Brazilian participation in international trade, the present study was to evaluate how the exchange rate instability has affected the flow of imports and exports sectors of Brazil with its main trading partners, in the period from 1989 to 2011. The impacts of tariff barriers, transport costs (distance) and income levels were also analyzed. To answer this question, there were estimates of a gravity equation for exports and imports sector between Brazil and its major trading partners considered the period from 1989 to 2011. The main results obtained in the present study suggest that the growth of income level, the reduction of tariff barriers and smaller distances adds to the Brazilian trade with those countries. Regarding the assessment of the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on trade Brazilian sectors, the results for imports and exports showed that the effect of exchange rate instability and the third country (currency instability of a third country) are detrimental to all sectors, indicating that the two sectoral trade flows between Brazil and its major trading partners are negatively affected not only by the exchange rate uncertainty, but also by the volatility of the exchange rate of the partners. However, what differentiates the results for exports and imports is greater variability and magnitude of the estimated coefficients for the sectoral flows of imports from Brazil, which highlights the importance of studies like this, with analysis broken down by sectors and types of flow commercial. It is therefore concluded that these differential impacts by sector, when considering the country's exchange rate instability and partners may be due to an enhancement of foreign capital demanded by industries that require high levels of initial investments, as the sector of machinery and equipment, metals and minerals and manufactured goods, a consequence of the financial sector in development, or in the case of trade as a whole, a consequence of the uncertainty that makes entrepreneurs start to invest in sectors for which they have greater market knowledge and smaller risks, or simply prioritize the domestic market.