Demanda de energia elétrica no Brasil no período pós-racionamento

• Ano de defesa: 2012
• Autor(a) principal: Pais, Paloma Santana Moreira
• Orientador(a): Mattos, Leonardo Bornacki de
• Banca de defesa: Gomes, Marília Fernandes Maciel , Cassuce, Francisco Carlos da Cunha
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Viçosa
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Mestrado em Economia Aplicada
• Departamento: Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos
• País: BR
• Palavras-chave em Português: Energia elétrica; Racionamento; Consumo
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Eletricity; Rationing; Consumption
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA DO BEM-ESTAR SOCIAL::ECONOMIA DO CONSUMIDOR
• Link de acesso: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/56

The scenario of the country's economic growth after the Real (Brazilian currency) Plan implementation, with accelerated growth of electricity demand, coupled with the capacity exhaustion of government investment in needed levels to expand the electric system and the unfavorable hydrological regime led to establish in the country the electricity rationing program between June 2001 and February 2002. This program has changed the population habits; they began to adopt more efficient practices in energy consumption, indicating that a new consumption pattern could have been established. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the relationship among electricity demand in Brazil and its main determinants (income and price) to Residential, Commercial, and Industrial consumption classes in the post-rationing, in order to identify the existence of new consumption patterns. For this reason, initial analysis of consumption trends for each class in the mentioned period was performed, and then the income elasticities and price of demand from Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models was estimated. Results indicated that the income elasticities of analyzed classes were lower than those ones from literature, suggesting that there was a decrease of electric intensity of the economy, resulting from adjustment in the electricity sector after the rationing, which led to increased efficiency in the use of electricity. For the price elasticity, the results of all classes were not significant, indicating that there is no contemporaneous relationship between consumption and electricity tariff. By results of the income elasticities, and with the projections of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth determined by the Brazilian Central Bank, forecasts were made for the growth rate of electricity demand, which were compared to the supply growth rate from 2012 to 2016. Thus, it was observed that the electricity supply should grow at rates higher than the demand, which indicates a greater adjustment in the national electricity sector, reducing the prospects of imbalance between demand and supply. However, this should only occur if there is no delay in operation of hydropower plants that are in construction or if economic growth is not higher than that one expected. Therefore, despite the changes in consumption patterns caused by rationing, the government should continue investing in the generation expansion of electricity and the in sector management, so that the risk of power cuts and rationing are minimized, making that the lack of electricity does not become an obstacle to national economic growth.