Fundamentos falimentares em risco de crédito

• Ano de defesa: 2019
• Autor(a) principal: Mattos, Eduardo da Silva
• Orientador(a): Basso, Leonardo Fernando Cruz
• Banca de defesa: Hadad Júnior, Eli, Kimura, Herbert, Nakamura, Wilson Toshiro, Barboza, Flavio de Moraes
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Administração de Empresas
• Departamento: Centro de Ciências Sociais e Aplicadas (CCSA)
• País: Brasil
• Palavras-chave em Português: falência; recuperação judicial; risco de crédito; direito e finanças; direito e economia
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ADMINISTRACAO::ADMINISTRACAO DE EMPRESAS
• Link de acesso: http://dspace.mackenzie.br/handle/10899/23319

This doctoral dissertation addresses, in three individual chapters, some of the basic, interdisciplinary and yet unexplored questions regarding the outcome prediction of insolvency and reorganization procedures in Brazil, especially regarding their legal and institutional aspects. My focus will be placed on the framework created after the promulgation of Brazil’s Bankruptcy Code (Law n. 11.101 / 2005). In the first chapter, using time series analysis, I develop prediction models of the monthly aggregated number of insolvency procedures fillings, using macroeconomic fluctuations, such as interest rates, exchange rates and economic activity, as explanatory variables. Also, my analysis will be compartmentalized, dividing firms according to their size and sector. Thus, it will be possible to perceive how Brazilian companies respond, in terms of financial distress, to real (internal and external) and monetary variations - as well as if there is a sensible difference in corporate behavior due firm size and sector differences. In the second chapter, I test models linear and binary models (probit and multinomial logit) to identify the determinants of the outcome of reorganization proceedings in Brazil. Using a novel dataset, I try to uncover some relevant and unknown information in Brazil. The outcome of a reorganization proceeding (that is, the approval, or not, of the reorganization plan) will be tested as a function of firm-specific accounting variables as well as some institutional variables regarding the Judiciary and the creditors – such as whether the judge adjudicating the case is specialized in bankruptcy cases, if the distressed firm hired specialized lawyers or whether or not there is a state-owned bank in the proceeding. In the last chapter, using the results previously found in this dissertation, I’ll face some public policy issues related to the reform of the Brazilian Bankruptcy Code.