Government spending multiplier and regional economic growth: a general equilibrium analysis
Ano de defesa: | 2020 |
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Autor(a) principal: | |
Orientador(a): | |
Banca de defesa: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Idioma: | eng |
Instituição de defesa: |
Universidade de São Paulo
|
Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Economia
|
Departamento: |
Não Informado pela instituição
|
País: |
BR
|
Link de acesso: | https://doi.org/10.11606/D.12.2020.tde-07042021-225639 |
Resumo: | The differences in growth rates and economic activity levels between regions within a country motivated the search for strategies to reduce regional disparities. At the initial stages of development, economic activity concentration positively affects national growth rates while raising regional inequality. However, after reaching a certain regional concentration level, increases in the latter would dampen national growth. The fiscal policy aimed at lagging regions configures as a regional policy for their development. Nonetheless, there is no consensus in the economic literature about fiscal policy\'s role, and there are still limited studies quantifying the multiplier effects at the local level, especially in developing countries. The global financial crisis of the late 2000s revitalized this debate, given the monetary policy\'s inability to counter the falling of economic levels. From a regional perspective, the heterogeneity in the transmission of a fiscal impulse causes varied effects between regions within a country due to differentials in productive structure and interdependence. In this context, the objective of this thesis is to analyze the impacts of Federal Government spending on the Brazilian regional economic growth. Thus, we seek to answer which policies would generate the highest multiplier effect on output. This objective will be achieved through a computable general equilibrium analysis (CGE) for the Brazilian economy, which will measure the impacts from both the aggregate and the regional perspectives. In this sense, this thesis offers another perspective on the multiplier effect: at first, by calculating for each state its Federal Government Spending Multiplier; secondly, it decomposes the total multiplier in its intraregional effect and the interregional effect. Therefore, as a preview of results, we found that the multiplier is higher in more impoverished areas and sensitive to trade openness. Lastly, it provides evidence that there is no trade-off between mitigating regional disparities and fostering national growth, and consequently, government spending could be used for regional development. |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis Government spending multiplier and regional economic growth: a general equilibrium analysis Multiplicador de gastos do governo e crescimento econômico regional: uma análise de equilíbrio geral 2020-10-02Eduardo Amaral HaddadFernando Salgueiro PerobelliAlexandre Alves PorsseRaphael Pinto FernandesUniversidade de São PauloEconomiaUSPBR Computable general equilibrium Crescimento econômico regional Equilíbrio geral computável Government spending multiplier Multiplicador dos gastos do governo Regional economic growth The differences in growth rates and economic activity levels between regions within a country motivated the search for strategies to reduce regional disparities. At the initial stages of development, economic activity concentration positively affects national growth rates while raising regional inequality. However, after reaching a certain regional concentration level, increases in the latter would dampen national growth. The fiscal policy aimed at lagging regions configures as a regional policy for their development. Nonetheless, there is no consensus in the economic literature about fiscal policy\'s role, and there are still limited studies quantifying the multiplier effects at the local level, especially in developing countries. The global financial crisis of the late 2000s revitalized this debate, given the monetary policy\'s inability to counter the falling of economic levels. From a regional perspective, the heterogeneity in the transmission of a fiscal impulse causes varied effects between regions within a country due to differentials in productive structure and interdependence. In this context, the objective of this thesis is to analyze the impacts of Federal Government spending on the Brazilian regional economic growth. Thus, we seek to answer which policies would generate the highest multiplier effect on output. This objective will be achieved through a computable general equilibrium analysis (CGE) for the Brazilian economy, which will measure the impacts from both the aggregate and the regional perspectives. In this sense, this thesis offers another perspective on the multiplier effect: at first, by calculating for each state its Federal Government Spending Multiplier; secondly, it decomposes the total multiplier in its intraregional effect and the interregional effect. Therefore, as a preview of results, we found that the multiplier is higher in more impoverished areas and sensitive to trade openness. Lastly, it provides evidence that there is no trade-off between mitigating regional disparities and fostering national growth, and consequently, government spending could be used for regional development. As diferenças nas taxas de crescimento e nos níveis de atividade econômica dentro de um país motivaram a busca de estratégias para reduzir as disparidades regionais. Nos estágios iniciais, a concentração da atividade econômica afeta positivamente o crescimento nacional e aumenta a desigualdade regional. No entanto, após um certo nível de concentração regional, os aumentos desta reduziriam o crescimento nacional. A política fiscal focalizada em regiões menos desenvolvidas configura-se como uma estrutura de política para o desenvolvimento destas. Porém, não há consenso na literatura sobre o papel da política fiscal e ainda existem estudos limitados quantificando os efeitos multiplicadores no nível local, especialmente nos países em desenvolvimento. Este debate foi revitalizado após a crise financeira global do final dos anos 2000, dada a incapacidade da política monetária de combater a recessão. De uma perspectiva regional, a heterogeneidade na transmissão de um choque causa efeitos variados entre regiões de um país devido a diferenciais na estrutura produtiva e de interdependência. Diante do exposto, o objetivo deste trabalho é analisar os impactos dos gastos do Governo Federal no crescimento econômico regional, procurando responder quais políticas gerariam o maior efeito multiplicador do produto. Esse objetivo será alcançado por meio de uma análise de equilíbrio geral computável (CGE) para o Brasil, mensurando os impactos tanto do ponto de vista agregado quanto do regional. Nesse sentido, esta dissertação oferece outra perspectiva sobre o efeito multiplicador: a princípio, calculando para cada estado o multiplicador de gastos do governo Federal; segundo, decompõe o multiplicador total em seu efeito intrarregional e interregional. Portanto, como uma prévia dos resultados, o multiplicador é maior em áreas empobrecidas e sensível à abertura comercial. Por fim, fornece evidências de que não há trade-offs entre mitigar as disparidades regionais e promover o crescimento nacional e, consequentemente, os gastos do governo poderiam ser usados para o desenvolvimento regional. https://doi.org/10.11606/D.12.2020.tde-07042021-225639info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessengreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USPinstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USP2023-12-21T18:23:06Zoai:teses.usp.br:tde-07042021-225639Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttp://www.teses.usp.br/PUBhttp://www.teses.usp.br/cgi-bin/mtd2br.plvirginia@if.usp.br|| atendimento@aguia.usp.br||virginia@if.usp.bropendoar:27212021-05-21T21:36:03Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false |
dc.title.en.fl_str_mv |
Government spending multiplier and regional economic growth: a general equilibrium analysis |
dc.title.alternative.pt.fl_str_mv |
Multiplicador de gastos do governo e crescimento econômico regional: uma análise de equilíbrio geral |
title |
Government spending multiplier and regional economic growth: a general equilibrium analysis |
spellingShingle |
Government spending multiplier and regional economic growth: a general equilibrium analysis Raphael Pinto Fernandes |
title_short |
Government spending multiplier and regional economic growth: a general equilibrium analysis |
title_full |
Government spending multiplier and regional economic growth: a general equilibrium analysis |
title_fullStr |
Government spending multiplier and regional economic growth: a general equilibrium analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Government spending multiplier and regional economic growth: a general equilibrium analysis |
title_sort |
Government spending multiplier and regional economic growth: a general equilibrium analysis |
author |
Raphael Pinto Fernandes |
author_facet |
Raphael Pinto Fernandes |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Eduardo Amaral Haddad |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Alexandre Alves Porsse |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Raphael Pinto Fernandes |
contributor_str_mv |
Eduardo Amaral Haddad Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli Alexandre Alves Porsse |
description |
The differences in growth rates and economic activity levels between regions within a country motivated the search for strategies to reduce regional disparities. At the initial stages of development, economic activity concentration positively affects national growth rates while raising regional inequality. However, after reaching a certain regional concentration level, increases in the latter would dampen national growth. The fiscal policy aimed at lagging regions configures as a regional policy for their development. Nonetheless, there is no consensus in the economic literature about fiscal policy\'s role, and there are still limited studies quantifying the multiplier effects at the local level, especially in developing countries. The global financial crisis of the late 2000s revitalized this debate, given the monetary policy\'s inability to counter the falling of economic levels. From a regional perspective, the heterogeneity in the transmission of a fiscal impulse causes varied effects between regions within a country due to differentials in productive structure and interdependence. In this context, the objective of this thesis is to analyze the impacts of Federal Government spending on the Brazilian regional economic growth. Thus, we seek to answer which policies would generate the highest multiplier effect on output. This objective will be achieved through a computable general equilibrium analysis (CGE) for the Brazilian economy, which will measure the impacts from both the aggregate and the regional perspectives. In this sense, this thesis offers another perspective on the multiplier effect: at first, by calculating for each state its Federal Government Spending Multiplier; secondly, it decomposes the total multiplier in its intraregional effect and the interregional effect. Therefore, as a preview of results, we found that the multiplier is higher in more impoverished areas and sensitive to trade openness. Lastly, it provides evidence that there is no trade-off between mitigating regional disparities and fostering national growth, and consequently, government spending could be used for regional development. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2020-10-02 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.12.2020.tde-07042021-225639 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.12.2020.tde-07042021-225639 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo |
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
USP |
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv |
BR |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
instname_str |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
instacron_str |
USP |
institution |
USP |
reponame_str |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP |
collection |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP - Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
virginia@if.usp.br|| atendimento@aguia.usp.br||virginia@if.usp.br |
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1786376632337956864 |