Aplicação de um modelo evolucionário para o segmento brasileiro de telefonia móvel

• Ano de defesa: 2011
• Autor(a) principal: Rezende, Adriano Alves de
• Orientador(a): Toyoshima, Sílvia Harumi
• Banca de defesa: Carvalho, Luciano Dias de , Alvim, Maria Isabel da Silva Azevedo , Botelho, Marisa dos Reis Azevedo
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Viçosa
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Mestrado em Economia
• Departamento: Desenvolvimento econômico e Políticas públicas
• País: BR
• Palavras-chave em Português: Teoria evolucionária; Serviços em telecomunicações; Inovação
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Evolutionary theory; Telecommunications services; Innovation
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INDUSTRIAL::MUDANCA TECNOLOGICA
• Link de acesso: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/3267

The overall objective of this work was to study the technological and competitiveness standards in the segment of mobile telephony services in the Brazilian market and its long-term prospects, as well as outline scenarios for this market, from a Neo-Schumpeterian evolutionary perspective. To this end, we used a dynamic simulation model such as "History Friendly", which allowed to measure the unobservable variables of Brazilian Personal Mobile Service (SMP) real market, as well as to estimate the level of competitiveness in the ex-ante segment. We conducted a broad and deep research on the Telecommunications Sector (TS's) and the SMP segment from sources such as ANATEL (National Telecommunications Agency), Research on Technological Innovation, 2005 (PINTEC, 2005), ITU (International Telecommunication Union), trade associations and several empirical studies. This information supported the construction of the model and the definition of the technological regime (RT) of ST's which was based on the Marsili taxonomy (2001). The Brazilian's ST RT basically does not develop its technology, but only incorporate mature technologies and widely tested in technologically developed countries. In part this RT resembles the North American standard which is the base of the taxonomy used in items as: technological opportunity, diversity among firms and strong barriers to new players. Another obvious point is the fact that the current Brazilian apparatus legal-regulatory mitigates the development and growth of ST's. The set of information researched also has indicated ANATEL governs the competitiveness of SMP segment and the price is the only proved factor that is decisive for the competitiveness. Regarding to the competitiveness it can be concluded that the scenarios that somehow had limited the growth of the operators, the level of competitiveness reached the lowest levels if compared to the other simulations. However, soon after reaching this point the market grew to certain levels of competitiveness as a midfielder. In scenarios where there was demand for investments in quality and innovation, the level of competitiveness has always remained as high, indicating that investments in quality and innovation are at least as decisive for the competitiveness and the price. It is suggested that the model be applied to other segments of the ST s to validate their ability to forecast for the industry as a whole.