Comparative analysis of monetary policy in Latin America: an application of a state-space model to Brazil, Chile and Mexico

Detalhes bibliográficos
Ano de defesa: 2025
Autor(a) principal: Ferreira, Matheus Filipe dos Santos
Orientador(a): Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury
Banca de defesa: Não Informado pela instituição
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
Idioma: eng
Instituição de defesa: Não Informado pela instituição
Programa de Pós-Graduação: Não Informado pela instituição
Departamento: Não Informado pela instituição
País: Não Informado pela instituição
Palavras-chave em Português:
Política monetária
Regra de Taylor
Filtro de Kalman
Palavras-chave em Inglês:
Monetary policy
Taylor rule
Kalman filter
Link de acesso: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/37411
Resumo: This paper analyzes the behavior of the central banks of Brazil, Chile, and Mexico between 2007 and 2024, with a focus on the post-COVID-19 period, marked by a global inflationary shock. We use state-space models to estimate the implicit inflation targets pursued by these monetary authorities. Estimates based on constant natural interest rates throughout the sample are compared with those that allow for time variation. The main findings are: first, the identification of a contractionary stance by Latin American central banks, especially between mid-2021 and 2022. Second, the particular case of Brazil, where monetary policy was tightened at the end of 2024, while its regional peers were cutting interest rates.
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spelling Ferreira, Matheus Filipe dos SantosEscolas::EESPMarçal, Emerson FernandesMendonça, Diogo de PrinceMuinhos, Marcelo Kfoury2025-08-12T15:04:57Z2025-08-12T15:04:57Z2025-07-22https://hdl.handle.net/10438/37411This paper analyzes the behavior of the central banks of Brazil, Chile, and Mexico between 2007 and 2024, with a focus on the post-COVID-19 period, marked by a global inflationary shock. We use state-space models to estimate the implicit inflation targets pursued by these monetary authorities. Estimates based on constant natural interest rates throughout the sample are compared with those that allow for time variation. The main findings are: first, the identification of a contractionary stance by Latin American central banks, especially between mid-2021 and 2022. Second, the particular case of Brazil, where monetary policy was tightened at the end of 2024, while its regional peers were cutting interest rates.Este artigo analisa o comportamento dos Bancos Centrais do Brasil, do Chile e do México entre 2007 e 2024, com foco no período posterior à pandemia de covid-19, marcado por um choque inflacionário global. Utilizamos modelos de espaço de estados para estimar a meta implícita de inflação dessas autoridades monetárias. Comparamos estimativas baseadas em taxas de juros naturais constantes ao longo da amostra com estimativas que permitem sua variação no tempo. Os resultados principais são: em primeiro lugar, a identificação de uma postura contracionista por parte dos Bancos Centrais latino-americanos, especialmente entre meados de 2021 e 2022. Em segundo lugar, a particularidade do caso brasileiro, em que houve endurecimento da política monetária no final de 2024, enquanto seus pares regionais promoviam cortes das taxas de juros.engMonetary policyTaylor ruleKalman filterPolítica monetáriaRegra de TaylorFiltro de KalmanEconomiaPolítica monetáriaTaylor, Regra deKalman, Filtragem deBancos centrais - América LatinaComparative analysis of monetary policy in Latin America: an application of a state-space model to Brazil, Chile and Mexicoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas 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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv Comparative analysis of monetary policy in Latin America: an application of a state-space model to Brazil, Chile and Mexico
title Comparative analysis of monetary policy in Latin America: an application of a state-space model to Brazil, Chile and Mexico
spellingShingle Comparative analysis of monetary policy in Latin America: an application of a state-space model to Brazil, Chile and Mexico
Ferreira, Matheus Filipe dos Santos
Monetary policy
Taylor rule
Kalman filter
Política monetária
Regra de Taylor
Filtro de Kalman
Economia
Política monetária
Taylor, Regra de
Kalman, Filtragem de
Bancos centrais - América Latina
title_short Comparative analysis of monetary policy in Latin America: an application of a state-space model to Brazil, Chile and Mexico
title_full Comparative analysis of monetary policy in Latin America: an application of a state-space model to Brazil, Chile and Mexico
title_fullStr Comparative analysis of monetary policy in Latin America: an application of a state-space model to Brazil, Chile and Mexico
title_full_unstemmed Comparative analysis of monetary policy in Latin America: an application of a state-space model to Brazil, Chile and Mexico
title_sort Comparative analysis of monetary policy in Latin America: an application of a state-space model to Brazil, Chile and Mexico
author Ferreira, Matheus Filipe dos Santos
author_facet Ferreira, Matheus Filipe dos Santos
author_role author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EESP
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
Mendonça, Diogo de Prince
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Ferreira, Matheus Filipe dos Santos
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury
contributor_str_mv Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Monetary policy
Taylor rule
Kalman filter
topic Monetary policy
Taylor rule
Kalman filter
Política monetária
Regra de Taylor
Filtro de Kalman
Economia
Política monetária
Taylor, Regra de
Kalman, Filtragem de
Bancos centrais - América Latina
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Política monetária
Regra de Taylor
Filtro de Kalman
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Economia
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Política monetária
Taylor, Regra de
Kalman, Filtragem de
Bancos centrais - América Latina
description This paper analyzes the behavior of the central banks of Brazil, Chile, and Mexico between 2007 and 2024, with a focus on the post-COVID-19 period, marked by a global inflationary shock. We use state-space models to estimate the implicit inflation targets pursued by these monetary authorities. Estimates based on constant natural interest rates throughout the sample are compared with those that allow for time variation. The main findings are: first, the identification of a contractionary stance by Latin American central banks, especially between mid-2021 and 2022. Second, the particular case of Brazil, where monetary policy was tightened at the end of 2024, while its regional peers were cutting interest rates.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2025-08-12T15:04:57Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2025-08-12T15:04:57Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2025-07-22
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10438/37411
url https://hdl.handle.net/10438/37411
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
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institution FGV
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MD5
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv biblioteca.digital@fgv.br
_version_ 1866369162344923136

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