Concessão rodoviária sob ameaça de implantação de ferrovia: um modelo de tomada de decisão de investimento baseado em opções reais

• Ano de defesa: 2017
• Autor(a) principal: Campos, Cassio Enrico de Araujo e
• Orientador(a): Rochman, Ricardo Ratner
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Palavras-chave em Português: Avaliação de investimentos; Concessões rodoviárias; Teoria de opções reais
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Investments valuation; Real options theory; Highway concessions
• Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18771

The recent Brazilian economic recession, encouraged federal government to promote programs to stimulate logistics infrastructure projects. However, political and economic uncertain scenario have settled down the government in an unfavorable position in searching for long-term investments in the country. This outlook obliged government's search for alternative ways to increase collaterals, thus, leveraging the attractiveness of projects. This paper aims to propose a decision model, based on real options, for a road concession exposed to a railroad installation risk, in a confluent path. Due to freight cost differences between road and railways, forecasted highway concession's cash flows are clearly endangered. Real Options Theory seems to be capable, not only to mitigate the effects of the railroad impact on concession’s cash flow, but also, to manage adding value for the project. Leveraging NPV above the original deterministic one.