Tr?s ensaios sobre o envelhecimento populacional e seus efeitos econ?micos
Ano de defesa: | 2017 |
---|---|
Autor(a) principal: | |
Orientador(a): | |
Banca de defesa: | |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Idioma: | por |
Instituição de defesa: |
Pontif?cia Universidade Cat?lica do Rio Grande do Sul
|
Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Programa de P?s-Gradua??o em Economia do Desenvolvimento
|
Departamento: |
Escola de Neg?cios
|
País: |
Brasil
|
Palavras-chave em Português: | |
Área do conhecimento CNPq: | |
Link de acesso: | http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/handle/tede/7799 |
Resumo: | This dissertation is comprised of three essays that relate the demographic transition and the population aging to its economic impacts. The relevance of this topic in literature has increased since the second half of the last century, when studies starts to use, in addition to population growth, changes in the age structures of the population. In the case of Brazil, population will face important challenges in the coming years, such as the population decline and a continuous increase in the elderly population, thus resulting in the end of the demographic dividend - a period when there is an increase in the participation of the population aged 15-64 years in the total population. Thus, in the first essay, the main objective is to evaluate the impact of the demographic dividend on per capita GDP growth using a panel database of countries. The results show that, although the demographic dividend is directly related to the per capita GDP, its effects are partially alleviated due to its inverse relation with the proportion of workers among the population aged 15-64 years. In the second essay, we analyze the evolution of the relationship between the Brazilian's age and their probability to be a saver, measuring the effect of aging on private savings through the Household Budget Surveys (POFs) of 1995-1996, 2002-2003 and 2008-2009. The results, obtained through a multinomial logit model, indicate that demography should contribute slightly to increase the number of savers in the coming years, which indicates that the country lives a smooth second demographic bonus. Finally, considering that several social security reforms have been applied in Brazil since the Federal Constitution of 1988, necessary in part by the process of population aging, the third essay aims at estimating the impact of the modifications of one of these reforms on the Brazilians probability to save. In this case, we investigated the reform originated by Constitutional Amendments 41 and 47, which occurred between the 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 POFs and substantially affected only the civilian public employees, which allowed the use of a difference-in-differences using the other workers as a control group. The results are that the reform has impacted on an increase in the percentage of savers, in accordance with the life cycle hypothesis. |
id |
P_RS_1a281ee87ce4e3cb36fb393c09ad2032 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:tede2.pucrs.br:tede/7799 |
network_acronym_str |
P_RS |
network_name_str |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da PUC_RS |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
Fochezatto, Adelarhttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4728888Y6http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4472883Z3Zuanazzi, Pedro Tonon2018-01-05T15:21:57Z2017-12-15http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/handle/tede/7799This dissertation is comprised of three essays that relate the demographic transition and the population aging to its economic impacts. The relevance of this topic in literature has increased since the second half of the last century, when studies starts to use, in addition to population growth, changes in the age structures of the population. In the case of Brazil, population will face important challenges in the coming years, such as the population decline and a continuous increase in the elderly population, thus resulting in the end of the demographic dividend - a period when there is an increase in the participation of the population aged 15-64 years in the total population. Thus, in the first essay, the main objective is to evaluate the impact of the demographic dividend on per capita GDP growth using a panel database of countries. The results show that, although the demographic dividend is directly related to the per capita GDP, its effects are partially alleviated due to its inverse relation with the proportion of workers among the population aged 15-64 years. In the second essay, we analyze the evolution of the relationship between the Brazilian's age and their probability to be a saver, measuring the effect of aging on private savings through the Household Budget Surveys (POFs) of 1995-1996, 2002-2003 and 2008-2009. The results, obtained through a multinomial logit model, indicate that demography should contribute slightly to increase the number of savers in the coming years, which indicates that the country lives a smooth second demographic bonus. Finally, considering that several social security reforms have been applied in Brazil since the Federal Constitution of 1988, necessary in part by the process of population aging, the third essay aims at estimating the impact of the modifications of one of these reforms on the Brazilians probability to save. In this case, we investigated the reform originated by Constitutional Amendments 41 and 47, which occurred between the 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 POFs and substantially affected only the civilian public employees, which allowed the use of a difference-in-differences using the other workers as a control group. The results are that the reform has impacted on an increase in the percentage of savers, in accordance with the life cycle hypothesis.Esta tese ? formada por tr?s ensaios que relacionam a transi??o demogr?fica e o envelhecimento populacional com seus impactos na economia. A relev?ncia desse tema na literatura aumentou a partir da segunda metade do s?culo passado, quando os estudos passaram a empregar, al?m do crescimento populacional, as modifica??es nas estruturas et?rias da popula??o. No cen?rio brasileiro, a popula??o enfrentar? desafios importantes nos pr?ximos anos, como o decl?nio populacional e um cont?nuo aumento da parcela da popula??o idosa, acarretando, portanto, o fim do seu b?nus demogr?fico ? janela em que aumenta a participa??o da popula??o de 15 a 64 anos na popula??o total. Dessa forma, no primeiro ensaio, o objetivo principal foi avaliar os impactos do b?nus demogr?fico no crescimento do PIB per capita utilizando uma base de dados em painel formada por pa?ses. Os resultados obtidos apontam que, embora o b?nus atinja, por identidade, o PIB per capita diretamente, seus efeitos s?o parcialmente amenizados devido ? sua rela??o inversa com a propor??o de trabalhadores entre a popula??o de 15 a 64 anos. No segundo ensaio, atrav?s das Pesquisas de Or?amento Familiares (POFs) de 1995-1996, 2002-2003 e 2008-2009, estudou-se a evolu??o da rela??o entre a idade do brasileiro e a sua probabilidade de ser poupador, avaliando, assim, o efeito do envelhecimento na poupan?a privada. Os resultados, obtidos atrav?s de um modelo logit multinomial, sinalizam que a demografia deve contribuir ligeiramente para o crescimento no n?mero de poupadores nos pr?ximos anos, dando ind?cios de que o pa?s vive, de forma suave, um segundo b?nus demogr?fico. Por fim, tendo em vista que diversas reformas previdenci?rias t?m sido aplicadas no Brasil desde a Constitui??o Federal de 1988, necess?rias, em parte, pelo processo de envelhecimento da popula??o, o terceiro ensaio visa estimar o impacto das modifica??es de uma dessas reformas na probabilidade de poupar dos brasileiros. No caso, investigou-se a reforma originada pelas Emendas Constitucionais 41 e 47, que ocorreu entre as POFs 2002-2003 e 2008-2009 e atingiu substancialmente apenas os servidores p?blicos civis, o que permitiu a utiliza??o de um modelo de diferen?as-emdiferen?as utilizando os demais trabalhadores como grupo controle. Os resultados encontrados s?o de que a reforma impactou em um incremento no percentual de poupadores, indo ao encontro da hip?tese do ciclo de vida.Submitted by PPG Economia do desenvolvimento (economia-pg@pucrs.br) on 2018-01-02T18:48:12Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PEDRO_TONON_ZUANAZZI_TES.pdf: 3379077 bytes, checksum: 874eccd18dcd59a6f01e06000d09b0f7 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Tatiana Lopes (tatiana.lopes@pucrs.br) on 2018-01-05T15:15:41Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 PEDRO_TONON_ZUANAZZI_TES.pdf: 3379077 bytes, checksum: 874eccd18dcd59a6f01e06000d09b0f7 (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2018-01-05T15:21:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PEDRO_TONON_ZUANAZZI_TES.pdf: 3379077 bytes, checksum: 874eccd18dcd59a6f01e06000d09b0f7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-15SESCON-RSapplication/pdfhttp://tede2.pucrs.br:80/tede2/retrieve/170641/PEDRO_TONON_ZUANAZZI_TES.pdf.jpgporPontif?cia Universidade Cat?lica do Rio Grande do SulPrograma de P?s-Gradua??o em Economia do DesenvolvimentoPUCRSBrasilEscola de Neg?ciosEnvelhecimento PopulacionalTransi??o Demogr?ficaEfeitos Econ?micosCIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIATr?s ensaios sobre o envelhecimento populacional e seus efeitos econ?micosinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisTrabalho n?o apresenta restri??o para publica??o-5405171042897922792500500500944455694546435801-2504903392600098822info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da PUC_RSinstname:Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUCRS)instacron:PUC_RSTHUMBNAILPEDRO_TONON_ZUANAZZI_TES.pdf.jpgPEDRO_TONON_ZUANAZZI_TES.pdf.jpgimage/jpeg5845http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/bitstream/tede/7799/4/PEDRO_TONON_ZUANAZZI_TES.pdf.jpgf745004d18be5e06474f8dbb4d508495MD54TEXTPEDRO_TONON_ZUANAZZI_TES.pdf.txtPEDRO_TONON_ZUANAZZI_TES.pdf.txttext/plain151939http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/bitstream/tede/7799/3/PEDRO_TONON_ZUANAZZI_TES.pdf.txtdda96fcc96c2dfecee4558d4d9df061cMD53ORIGINALPEDRO_TONON_ZUANAZZI_TES.pdfPEDRO_TONON_ZUANAZZI_TES.pdfapplication/pdf3379077http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/bitstream/tede/7799/2/PEDRO_TONON_ZUANAZZI_TES.pdf874eccd18dcd59a6f01e06000d09b0f7MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-8610http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/bitstream/tede/7799/1/license.txt5a9d6006225b368ef605ba16b4f6d1beMD51tede/77992018-01-05 20:00:46.963oai:tede2.pucrs.br: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Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttp://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/PRIhttps://tede2.pucrs.br/oai/requestbiblioteca.central@pucrs.br||opendoar:2018-01-05T22:00:46Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da PUC_RS - Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUCRS)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Tr?s ensaios sobre o envelhecimento populacional e seus efeitos econ?micos |
title |
Tr?s ensaios sobre o envelhecimento populacional e seus efeitos econ?micos |
spellingShingle |
Tr?s ensaios sobre o envelhecimento populacional e seus efeitos econ?micos Zuanazzi, Pedro Tonon Envelhecimento Populacional Transi??o Demogr?fica Efeitos Econ?micos CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
title_short |
Tr?s ensaios sobre o envelhecimento populacional e seus efeitos econ?micos |
title_full |
Tr?s ensaios sobre o envelhecimento populacional e seus efeitos econ?micos |
title_fullStr |
Tr?s ensaios sobre o envelhecimento populacional e seus efeitos econ?micos |
title_full_unstemmed |
Tr?s ensaios sobre o envelhecimento populacional e seus efeitos econ?micos |
title_sort |
Tr?s ensaios sobre o envelhecimento populacional e seus efeitos econ?micos |
author |
Zuanazzi, Pedro Tonon |
author_facet |
Zuanazzi, Pedro Tonon |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Fochezatto, Adelar |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4728888Y6 |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4472883Z3 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Zuanazzi, Pedro Tonon |
contributor_str_mv |
Fochezatto, Adelar |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Envelhecimento Populacional Transi??o Demogr?fica Efeitos Econ?micos |
topic |
Envelhecimento Populacional Transi??o Demogr?fica Efeitos Econ?micos CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
description |
This dissertation is comprised of three essays that relate the demographic transition and the population aging to its economic impacts. The relevance of this topic in literature has increased since the second half of the last century, when studies starts to use, in addition to population growth, changes in the age structures of the population. In the case of Brazil, population will face important challenges in the coming years, such as the population decline and a continuous increase in the elderly population, thus resulting in the end of the demographic dividend - a period when there is an increase in the participation of the population aged 15-64 years in the total population. Thus, in the first essay, the main objective is to evaluate the impact of the demographic dividend on per capita GDP growth using a panel database of countries. The results show that, although the demographic dividend is directly related to the per capita GDP, its effects are partially alleviated due to its inverse relation with the proportion of workers among the population aged 15-64 years. In the second essay, we analyze the evolution of the relationship between the Brazilian's age and their probability to be a saver, measuring the effect of aging on private savings through the Household Budget Surveys (POFs) of 1995-1996, 2002-2003 and 2008-2009. The results, obtained through a multinomial logit model, indicate that demography should contribute slightly to increase the number of savers in the coming years, which indicates that the country lives a smooth second demographic bonus. Finally, considering that several social security reforms have been applied in Brazil since the Federal Constitution of 1988, necessary in part by the process of population aging, the third essay aims at estimating the impact of the modifications of one of these reforms on the Brazilians probability to save. In this case, we investigated the reform originated by Constitutional Amendments 41 and 47, which occurred between the 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 POFs and substantially affected only the civilian public employees, which allowed the use of a difference-in-differences using the other workers as a control group. The results are that the reform has impacted on an increase in the percentage of savers, in accordance with the life cycle hypothesis. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2017-12-15 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2018-01-05T15:21:57Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
format |
doctoralThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/handle/tede/7799 |
url |
http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/handle/tede/7799 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.program.fl_str_mv |
-5405171042897922792 |
dc.relation.confidence.fl_str_mv |
500 500 500 |
dc.relation.department.fl_str_mv |
944455694546435801 |
dc.relation.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
-2504903392600098822 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Pontif?cia Universidade Cat?lica do Rio Grande do Sul |
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv |
Programa de P?s-Gradua??o em Economia do Desenvolvimento |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
PUCRS |
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv |
Brasil |
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv |
Escola de Neg?cios |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Pontif?cia Universidade Cat?lica do Rio Grande do Sul |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da PUC_RS instname:Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUCRS) instacron:PUC_RS |
instname_str |
Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUCRS) |
instacron_str |
PUC_RS |
institution |
PUC_RS |
reponame_str |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da PUC_RS |
collection |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da PUC_RS |
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv |
http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/bitstream/tede/7799/4/PEDRO_TONON_ZUANAZZI_TES.pdf.jpg http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/bitstream/tede/7799/3/PEDRO_TONON_ZUANAZZI_TES.pdf.txt http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/bitstream/tede/7799/2/PEDRO_TONON_ZUANAZZI_TES.pdf http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/bitstream/tede/7799/1/license.txt |
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv |
f745004d18be5e06474f8dbb4d508495 dda96fcc96c2dfecee4558d4d9df061c 874eccd18dcd59a6f01e06000d09b0f7 5a9d6006225b368ef605ba16b4f6d1be |
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv |
MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da PUC_RS - Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUCRS) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
biblioteca.central@pucrs.br|| |
_version_ |
1796793230528872448 |