Modelagem qualitativa e simulação em gestão estratégica

• Ano de defesa: 2012
• Autor(a) principal: Santos, Alberto Joaquim dos
• Orientador(a): Prado, Hércules Antonio do
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Católica de Brasília
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa Strictu Sensu em Gestão do Conhecimento e da Tecnologia da Informação
• Departamento: Escola de Educação, Tecnologia e Comunicação
• País: Brasil
• Palavras-chave em Português: Balanced ScoreCard; Gestão do conhecimento; Planejamento estratégico; Raciocínio qualitativo; Tomada de decisão; Sensemaking
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CIENCIA DA INFORMACAO::TEORIA DA INFORMACAO
• Link de acesso: https://bdtd.ucb.br:8443/jspui/handle/tede/2049

The Balanced Scorecard (BSC) is a widely adopted methodology for measuring and monitoring the implementation of organizational strategy. However, some authors are critical to the strategic maps derived from the BSC due to: (i) the relationship of causes and effects are one-way, (ii) the model is static and does not express the temporality, and (iii) the fact that its indicators capture only past facts. Given that actors, resources, and processes interact in a scenario for the execution of a strategic plan, it seems to be an interesting idea to apply modeling and simulation techniques to understand this dynamics. Complementarily, the great uncertainty of the variables involved in this scenario works as a strong driver to the adoption of qualitative representations instead of a precise numerical model. Thus, the Qualitative Modeling technique is studied in this research, exploring the variables values represented by intervals and distinct points in their respective domains. Two qualitative models were built, one related to the scenarios for strategic planning and other for representing the strategic map of an organization. Simulations on the models were conducted in order to enable: (i) a conceptual study of the relations between the components of the plan, showing how modeling and qualitative simulations can help in maintaining their alignment; (ii) the anticipation by the strategic level of the organization of problems arising from assumptions about the values of variables; and (iii) promoting organizational learning from the sensemaking process triggered by the analysis of the simulation results. A case study was carried out on the institutional strategic planning from the Brazilian General Attorney in order to enlighten the benefits from the proposed approach.