Fiscal resilience and productive specialization in Brazilian municipalities: empirical evidence

• Ano de defesa: 2025
• Autor(a) principal: Rodrigues, Alan Rodrigo do Nascimento
• Orientador(a): Silva Filho, Osvaldo Candido da
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Católica de Brasília
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa Stricto Sensu em Economia de Empresas
• Departamento: Escola de Humanidades, Negócios e Direito
• País: Brasil
• Palavras-chave em Português: Resiliência fiscal; Especialização produtiva; Recessão; Economia regional
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Fiscal resilience; Productive specialization; Recession; Regional economics
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA
• Link de acesso: https://bdtd.ucb.br:8443/jspui/handle/tede/3712

This dissertation consists of two independent articles that analyze the effects of the 2014–2016 Brazilian recession on local public finance and productive structures at the municipal level. The first article investigates municipal fiscal resilience during the crisis, using an annual panel of 5,568 municipalities between 2003 and 2019. It examines the impacts of the recession on total, current, capital, and own-source revenues, as well as a decomposition by municipal taxes. The results show significant revenue declines, particularly in municipalities specialized in services and agriculture, followed by those centered on industry and public administration. In contrast, larger and wealthier municipalities displayed greater resilience, suggesting that economic diversification mitigates the effects of macroeconomic shocks. The second article explores how the recession affected local productive specialization, focusing on four main sectors: Agriculture, Industry, Services, and Public Administration. The findings indicate an overall decline in specialization, with negative effects on agriculture and industry, while services and public administration became more concentrated. This pattern points to both sectoral migration and the stabilizing role of government spending. Moreover, larger municipalities were relatively less affected by the crisis. Together, the two articles provide new evidence on how macroeconomic shocks simultaneously shape fiscal resilience and productive specialization at the local level, underscoring the need for policy responses tailored to the structural characteristics of municipalities.