Brazilian non-financial firms: analysis of the impact of COVID-19 at the firm level, Q theory, corporate debt and default

• Ano de defesa: 2026
• Autor(a) principal: Docha, Flávio Alberti
• Orientador(a): Carhuajulca, Jaime José Orrillo
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Católica de Brasília
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa Stricto Sensu em Economia de Empresas
• Departamento: Escola de Humanidades, Negócios e Direito
• País: Brasil
• Palavras-chave em Português: Finanças corporativas; Dívida externa; Decisão de financiamento das firmas; Inadimplência das firmas; Decisão de investimento das firmas; Q de Tobin; Stackelberg
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Corporate finance; External debt; Firm’s financing decision; Firm’s default; Investment decision of firms; Tobin’s Q; Stackelberg
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA
• Link de acesso: https://bdtd.ucb.br:8443/jspui/handle/tede/3814

This thesis examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the indebtedness of Brazilian non-financial firms. Using an unprecedented panel dataset comprising over 26,000 companies with quarterly observations, including external indebtedness, ac counting information, balance sheet and external investments at the firm level. The study employs Difference-in-Differences (DiD) models to assess the effects. The empir ical results indicate a statistically significant increase in the external debt stock among non-financial firms with creditors based in countries most affected by the pandemic. This effect is primarily driven by external loan operations, reflecting the firms height ened need for liquidity during this period. These findings offer valuable insights into the financial strategies adopted by non-financial firms in emerging markets during unprece dented external shocks, contributing to the broader literature on corporate finance and crisis management. Furthermore, the study also extends the theory of investment to incorporate financial shocks considering corporate debt which will be subject to default using a two-stage hierarchical dynamic game. In this extended framework, we apply the model to the context of Brazil and carry out an econometric exercise to validate the theoretical model developed. The results obtained, assuming that the Brazilian market is in equilibrium, point to a negative correlation between the Tobin’s Q of Brazilian non-financial firms and the state-owned bank (BNDES) default rate, which suggests that times when firms have greater investment capacity (higher Tobin’s Q) are corre lated with lower default rates, that is, they have greater capacity to honor their debts.