Climate change and model parameter uncertainties propagated to ungauged reservoir catchments in Ceará: a study for water availability assessment

Detalhes bibliográficos
Ano de defesa: 2020
Autor(a) principal: Estácio, Ályson Brayner Sousa
Orientador(a): Souza Filho, Francisco de Assis de
Banca de defesa: Não Informado pela instituição
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
Idioma: por
Instituição de defesa: Não Informado pela instituição
Programa de Pós-Graduação: Não Informado pela instituição
Departamento: Não Informado pela instituição
País: Não Informado pela instituição
Palavras-chave em Português:
Recursos hídricos
Mudanças climáticas
Disponibilidade hídrica
Regionalização
Parameter uncertainty
Conceptual hydrological model
Link de acesso: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/50591
Resumo: Climate change is expected tohave extensive socioeconomic consequences. However, only a fewstudies have assessed the impact of future streamflow modelling uncertaintiesin water availability of complex reservoir network systems.This issue is aggravatedwhen the reservoirs do not have inflow measurement. In these cases,regionalizing the hydrological model parameters is a common approach to streamflowestimation. However, propagating these uncertainties to ungaugedcatchments figuresas a methodological question that remains unsolved.In this study we propose a regionalization procedure based onK-Nearest-Neighbor (K-N-N) classification method, that allowsto incorporateexplicitlythemodel parameter uncertainty.Climate change and model parameter uncertainties were propagated to ungauged reservoir catchments in Cearáand the future water availability of the Jaguaribe Metropolitan hydrossystemwas assessed. Eight Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the sixth phaseofthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) were used to represent future climate. The K-Nearest-Neighbours regionalizationproduced accurate streamflow prediction with an average NSE of 0.67, when only the first neighbour is used.Half of GCMsforecasted a significant increase of water availability for the period 2021-2050in the hydrosystem, while the other half forecasteddecrease or maintenance. Parameter uncertainty showed to be negligible in comparison to climate change uncertainty. The proposed framework is expected to collaborate with uncertainty assessment in Ceará, as a tool for water resources planning and management.
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spelling Estácio, Ályson Brayner SousaSouza Filho, Francisco de Assis de2020-03-06T17:46:13Z2020-03-06T17:46:13Z2020ESTÁCIO, A. B. S. Climate change and model parameter uncertainties propagated to ungauged reservoir catchments in Ceará: a study for water availability assessment. 2020. 67 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia Civil) - Centro de Tecnologia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Civil: Recursos Hídricos, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, 2020.http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/50591Climate change is expected tohave extensive socioeconomic consequences. However, only a fewstudies have assessed the impact of future streamflow modelling uncertaintiesin water availability of complex reservoir network systems.This issue is aggravatedwhen the reservoirs do not have inflow measurement. In these cases,regionalizing the hydrological model parameters is a common approach to streamflowestimation. However, propagating these uncertainties to ungaugedcatchments figuresas a methodological question that remains unsolved.In this study we propose a regionalization procedure based onK-Nearest-Neighbor (K-N-N) classification method, that allowsto incorporateexplicitlythemodel parameter uncertainty.Climate change and model parameter uncertainties were propagated to ungauged reservoir catchments in Cearáand the future water availability of the Jaguaribe Metropolitan hydrossystemwas assessed. Eight Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the sixth phaseofthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) were used to represent future climate. The K-Nearest-Neighbours regionalizationproduced accurate streamflow prediction with an average NSE of 0.67, when only the first neighbour is used.Half of GCMsforecasted a significant increase of water availability for the period 2021-2050in the hydrosystem, while the other half forecasteddecrease or maintenance. Parameter uncertainty showed to be negligible in comparison to climate change uncertainty. The proposed framework is expected to collaborate with uncertainty assessment in Ceará, as a tool for water resources planning and management.As mudanças climáticas deverão ter graves consequências sociais e econômicas. No entanto, poucos estudos têm avaliado o impacto das incertezas da mudança climática na disponibilidade hídrica de complexos sistemas de redes de reservatórios. A incerteza é agravada quando os reservatórios não possuem monitoramento das vazões afluentes. Nesses casos, a regionalização dos parâmetros de modelos hidrológicos representa uma estratégia comum para se estimar as vazões afluentes. Propagar as incertezas associadas aos parâmetros para as bacias não monitoradas apresenta-se, no entanto, como um desafio metodológico ainda em discussão. Neste estudo, propõe-se uma estratégia de regionalização, baseada no método de classificação K-Nearest-Neighbor (K-N-N), que incorpora explicitamente as incertezas associadas aos parâmetros do modelo hidrológico. Tais incertezas, bem como aquelas provenientes da mudança climática, foram propagadas para as bacias não monitoradas dos reservatórios no estado do Ceará, tendo sido avaliada a disponibilidade hídrica do Hidrossistema Jaguaribe- Metropolitano. Oito Modelos de Circulação Global (GCMs) da sexta fase do Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) foram usados para representar o clima futuro. A regionalização permitiu cálculo de vazões com NSE de 0.67 quando apenas uma bacia preditora é utilizada. Metade dos GCMs projetam um significativo aumento da disponibilidade hídrica no hidrossistema para o período 2021-2050, enquanto que a outra metade prevê diminuição ou manutenção. A incerteza dos parâmetros mostrou-se irrelevante frente a incerteza da mudança do clima. A metodologia proposta deve colaborar com a quantificação das incertezas no Ceará, servindo de ferramenta para o planejamento e gestão dos recursos hídricos locais.Recursos hídricosMudanças climáticasDisponibilidade hídricaRegionalizaçãoParameter uncertaintyConceptual hydrological modelClimate change and model parameter uncertainties propagated to ungauged reservoir catchments in Ceará: a study for water availability assessmentinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisporreponame:Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)instname:Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)instacron:UFCinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessORIGINAL2020_dis_absestacio.pdf2020_dis_absestacio.pdfapplication/pdf2608080http://repositorio.ufc.br/bitstream/riufc/50591/5/2020_dis_absestacio.pdf25dd6a131ce2d7cfd26ae20782f5dbf6MD55LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81748http://repositorio.ufc.br/bitstream/riufc/50591/6/license.txt8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33MD56riufc/505912020-11-06 10:07:55.826oai:repositorio.ufc.br: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Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://www.repositorio.ufc.br/ri-oai/requestbu@ufc.br || repositorio@ufc.bropendoar:2020-11-06T13:07:55Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC) - Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)false
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Climate change and model parameter uncertainties propagated to ungauged reservoir catchments in Ceará: a study for water availability assessment
title Climate change and model parameter uncertainties propagated to ungauged reservoir catchments in Ceará: a study for water availability assessment
spellingShingle Climate change and model parameter uncertainties propagated to ungauged reservoir catchments in Ceará: a study for water availability assessment
Estácio, Ályson Brayner Sousa
Recursos hídricos
Mudanças climáticas
Disponibilidade hídrica
Regionalização
Parameter uncertainty
Conceptual hydrological model
title_short Climate change and model parameter uncertainties propagated to ungauged reservoir catchments in Ceará: a study for water availability assessment
title_full Climate change and model parameter uncertainties propagated to ungauged reservoir catchments in Ceará: a study for water availability assessment
title_fullStr Climate change and model parameter uncertainties propagated to ungauged reservoir catchments in Ceará: a study for water availability assessment
title_full_unstemmed Climate change and model parameter uncertainties propagated to ungauged reservoir catchments in Ceará: a study for water availability assessment
title_sort Climate change and model parameter uncertainties propagated to ungauged reservoir catchments in Ceará: a study for water availability assessment
author Estácio, Ályson Brayner Sousa
author_facet Estácio, Ályson Brayner Sousa
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Estácio, Ályson Brayner Sousa
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Souza Filho, Francisco de Assis de
contributor_str_mv Souza Filho, Francisco de Assis de
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Recursos hídricos
Mudanças climáticas
Disponibilidade hídrica
Regionalização
Parameter uncertainty
Conceptual hydrological model
topic Recursos hídricos
Mudanças climáticas
Disponibilidade hídrica
Regionalização
Parameter uncertainty
Conceptual hydrological model
description Climate change is expected tohave extensive socioeconomic consequences. However, only a fewstudies have assessed the impact of future streamflow modelling uncertaintiesin water availability of complex reservoir network systems.This issue is aggravatedwhen the reservoirs do not have inflow measurement. In these cases,regionalizing the hydrological model parameters is a common approach to streamflowestimation. However, propagating these uncertainties to ungaugedcatchments figuresas a methodological question that remains unsolved.In this study we propose a regionalization procedure based onK-Nearest-Neighbor (K-N-N) classification method, that allowsto incorporateexplicitlythemodel parameter uncertainty.Climate change and model parameter uncertainties were propagated to ungauged reservoir catchments in Cearáand the future water availability of the Jaguaribe Metropolitan hydrossystemwas assessed. Eight Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the sixth phaseofthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) were used to represent future climate. The K-Nearest-Neighbours regionalizationproduced accurate streamflow prediction with an average NSE of 0.67, when only the first neighbour is used.Half of GCMsforecasted a significant increase of water availability for the period 2021-2050in the hydrosystem, while the other half forecasteddecrease or maintenance. Parameter uncertainty showed to be negligible in comparison to climate change uncertainty. The proposed framework is expected to collaborate with uncertainty assessment in Ceará, as a tool for water resources planning and management.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2020-03-06T17:46:13Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2020-03-06T17:46:13Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2020
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv ESTÁCIO, A. B. S. Climate change and model parameter uncertainties propagated to ungauged reservoir catchments in Ceará: a study for water availability assessment. 2020. 67 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia Civil) - Centro de Tecnologia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Civil: Recursos Hídricos, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, 2020.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/50591
identifier_str_mv ESTÁCIO, A. B. S. Climate change and model parameter uncertainties propagated to ungauged reservoir catchments in Ceará: a study for water availability assessment. 2020. 67 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia Civil) - Centro de Tecnologia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Civil: Recursos Hídricos, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, 2020.
url http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/50591
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
instname:Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
instacron:UFC
instname_str Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
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institution UFC
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
collection Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv http://repositorio.ufc.br/bitstream/riufc/50591/5/2020_dis_absestacio.pdf
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