Estratégia de gestão adaptativa dos recursos hídricos para o rio Jaguaribe em cenários de mudanças climáticas.

• Ano de defesa: 2016
• Autor(a) principal: Fernandes, Renato de Oliveira
• Orientador(a): Studart, Ticiana Marinho de Carvalho
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Palavras-chave em Português: Recursos hídricos; Mudanças climáticas; Resiliência; Modelos de gestão
• Link de acesso: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/22059

Studies of the impacts of climate change that support the management of Water resources are indispensable for the elaboration of strategies Adaptive This paper assesses the impacts of climate change on Regularized flows of two large reservoirs and the quality of the Rio Jaguaribe, Ceará, and elenca management strategies based on the variations Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) and Dissolved Oxygen (DO) Caused by changes designed for the climate. The AcquaNet model was Used to simulate the regularized flows (Q90) of the reservoirs Castanhão and Banabuiú, which, in parallel, are mainly responsible for For perpetuating the Jaguaribe River. The inflow to the reservoirs, Necessary to estimate Q90, were simulated by the model Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP), which used data Of 20 Global Circulation Models (MCGs) of the Fifth Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) In two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and Two future periods (2040-2069 and 2070-2099). The simulation of The QUAL-UFMG model and considers the variation of the Q90 in the Jaguaribe River projected from the MCGs and the sewage Of the municipalities downstream of Castanhão. Limits were identified The reduction of Q90 by sensitivity analysis of the concentration of BOD and OD, and formulated hypotheses of management from goals Reduction of the BOD load and the variation of the projected Q90. The Results show that to meet BOD and OD concentrations Recommended for class 2 of the framework the reduction in Q90 should be Less than 45% for the period 2040-2069 and 20% for the period 2070-2099 Relation to the base scenario (1961-1990). The hypotheses suggest the need to Progressively reduce the BOD load thrown into the river by 20% (2040-2069) And 10% (2070-2099) for successive reductions of 5% in Q90 after exceeding The BOD and OD concentration limits recommended for class 2 of the framework. Projections of the impacts of climate change on And the water quality of the Jaguaribe River Differences in the values ​​of change. To deal with the problem generated by Uncertainties in the management of water resources, a conceptual framework is proposed. (Framework) that couples the cycle of adaptive management with decision making. The proposed conceptual framework takes into account the hypotheses of Of Jaguaribe River, determined by the capacity of regularization of the Reservoirs, the variation of the organic load of domestic origin and the Adopted as the main strategy. The management strategy recommends Improvements in the basic sanitation policy to reduce the BOD load, Operational control of the reservoirs to maintain the minimum flow in the The current water resources management instruments. O Study has shown that climate change must cause qualitative and quantitative impacts In the water resources of the Jaguaribe River basin, Ceará, and that The proposed adaptive management strategy is an important tool for Deal with this new context of uncertainties, mainly due to its Flexibility and decision making with uncertain or incomplete information.