Aprimoramento da modelagem para avaliação de segurança hídrica no contexto do desenvolvimento regional sustentável

• Ano de defesa: 2024
• Autor(a) principal: Oliveira, Daniel Ben-Hur Silva De
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo; BR; Mestrado em Engenharia Ambiental; Centro Tecnológico; UFES; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Ambiental
• Palavras-chave em Português: Recursos hídricos; inundação; índices; Rio Jucu; desenvolvimento regional; subject.br-rjbn; Área(s) do conhecimento do documento (Tabela CNPq)
• Link de acesso: http://repositorio.ufes.br/handle/10/17419

Water security is a concept that is still under construction, but it is broad, multidimensional and influenced by various factors related to sustainable development, water resource management, risk and disaster management and securitization, themes that were the basis for its conception. Even so, many models for assessing water security have been limited to considering only factors related to water scarcity in their conceptual/analytical framework. As an example of this limitation, in Brazil, the Water Security Index (ISH) proposed by the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA) in the National Water Security Plan uses a comprehensive definition of water security, but focuses on guaranteeing supply and reservoir water infrastructures in its methodology. To ensure water security and sustainable regional development, it is crucial that decision-makers understand the factors involved and use evaluation models. Implementing water security is a significant challenge, but improving existing evaluation approaches is key to making it a reality. In this context, the aim of this study was to improve modeling for assessing water security in the context of sustainable regional development, with an emphasis on the Brazilian scenario. To this end, a literature review was carried out to identify factors with the potential to affect water security and its assessment, and to understand how it is dealt with in Brazil. The ANA's ISH model was then used as a basis for proposing an adjusted model, called ISHadjusted, which modifies the resilience dimension of the ISH, adding the Flood Vulnerability Index (IVI) to its composition. In addition, some of the factors identified in this research, but which were not present in the ISHadjusted, were used as qualitative indicators to complement and understand the limitations of the model. ISHadjusted was applied to the Jucu River Hydrographic Region (RHJ), in the state of Espírito Santo, considering a trend scenario for the year 2035. This studyfound 129 factors influencing water security, which were grouped three by three into 43 elements and categorized into five (05) dimensions of water security. Subsequently, the analysis of the ISHadjustedshowed that the inclusion of the IVI, representing the "risk of flooding" factor, altered the degrees of water security in the RHJ, highlighting areas that now have lower water security than in the original ISH, due to their greater vulnerability to flooding. This result is sensitive to the context of water security in the RHJ and consistent with local perceptions. With the analysis of the other factors that were not incorporated into the ISHadjusted, issues pertinent to the RHJ were addressed that qualified the analysis of water security in the region, and the same issues are possible points for improvement in the model. Finally, the limitations and potential of the field of water security modeling were listed, as well as the limitations and potential of the ISHadjusted model. The conclusion is that the improvements made point to the need for models that more representatively address water security as it is conceptualized, considering its various intervening factors.