SIMULAÇÃO DE MONTE CARLO PARA PLANEJAMENTO E DECISÕES EM PROJETO DE TRANSMISSÃO DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA

• Ano de defesa: 2013
• Autor(a) principal: Saboya, Guilherme Leite
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Programa de Pós-graduação em Sistemas de Gestão; Segurança do Trabalho, Meio-ambiente, Gestão pela Qualidade Total
• Palavras-chave em Português: Planejamento de projetos; tomada de decisão; simulação de Monte Carlo; modelagem; análise de riscos; Project planning; decision making; Monte Carlo Simulation; modeling risk analysis; CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA DE PRODUCAO
• Link de acesso: https://app.uff.br/riuff/handle/1/20800

This research aims to propose guidelines for decisions in the planning stage in electricity transmission project. The focus is on electricity transmission projects, capital and labor intensive projects, extremely complex, involving a variety of risks and agents. This research is exploratory and seeks to qualify and quantify a planning transmission line project. This planning aims to good preparation, structuring, and assessment to support decision on the organization's strategy for the enterprise contract. The goal is to compose a model to be studied based on the planning and risks review, generating scenarios derived from Monte Carlo simulations to guide decision making and also provide the probabilistic reference to the sequence of the project implementation and its inherent uncertainties. The data were modeled and simulated from a real case of a transmission line auctioned in 2012. The decision-making is valued at some stages of the project. The simulation presented probabilistic outcomes for scenarios based on estimates, scope understanding and measured risks as the maturity of the available information and perceived uncertainties. Sought at the end evaluate possible strategies for participation in the auction or not.