O repasse cambial no contexto do regime de metas de inflação: a experiência brasileira de 1999 a 2015.

Detalhes bibliográficos
Ano de defesa: 2018
Autor(a) principal: PEREIRA, Geylson Serra lattes
Orientador(a): MOURA, João Gonsalo de lattes
Banca de defesa: PAULA, Ricardo Zimbrão Affonso de, HOLANDA, Felipe Macedo de
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
Idioma: por
Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal do Maranhão
Programa de Pós-Graduação: PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM DESENVOLVIMENTO SOCIOECONOMICO/CCSO
Departamento: DEPARTAMENTO DE ECONOMIA/CCSO
País: Brasil
Palavras-chave em Português:
Inflação
Câmbio
Juros
Política Monetária
Regime de Metas de Inflação
Palavras-chave em Inglês:
Inflation
Exchange
Interest
Monetary policy
Inflation Target Regime (IMR)
Área do conhecimento CNPq:
Economia Monetária e Fiscal
Link de acesso: https://tedebc.ufma.br/jspui/handle/tede/2307
Resumo: This work deals with the transfer of exchange rate variations to price levels in Brazil in a context of flexible exchange rate and Inflation Target Regime (IMR), covering the period from 1999 to 2015. It seeks to investigate how the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) responds to shocks in the interest rate and exchange rate, in order to identify which of the variables has the greatest significance to explain the variations in the IPCA. To do so, it reviews the empirical work carried out in the framework of the estimation of exchange rate transfers in Brazil in the period 1999/2000 until, at least, 2015. Additionally, an evaluation is made of the evolutionary dynamics of the central variables of this work (exchange rate, inflation and interest). Before, however, a theoretical revision on theories of inflation and exchange rate determination, as well as international experiences in the implementation of the regime, is undertaken. It is observed in the results of this work that the IPCA reacts more significantly to the shocks in the exchange rate than to the interest rate shocks. In addition, exchange rate shocks have a more durable persistence, compared to interest shocks, thus constituting the variable (among the two) that is most relevant for determining the IPCA in the observed period.
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spelling MOURA, João Gonsalo de310.142.913-72http://lattes.cnpq.br/4375641235722764PAULA, Ricardo Zimbrão Affonso deHOLANDA, Felipe Macedo de052.749.283-31http://lattes.cnpq.br/7221491143343886PEREIRA, Geylson Serra2018-07-09T21:11:25Z2018-03-07PEREIRA, Geylson Serra. O repasse cambial no contexto do regime de metas de inflação: a experiência brasileira de 1999 a 2015. 2018. 121 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Desenvolvimento Socioeconomico) - Universidade Federal do Maranhão, São Luís, 2018.https://tedebc.ufma.br/jspui/handle/tede/2307This work deals with the transfer of exchange rate variations to price levels in Brazil in a context of flexible exchange rate and Inflation Target Regime (IMR), covering the period from 1999 to 2015. It seeks to investigate how the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) responds to shocks in the interest rate and exchange rate, in order to identify which of the variables has the greatest significance to explain the variations in the IPCA. To do so, it reviews the empirical work carried out in the framework of the estimation of exchange rate transfers in Brazil in the period 1999/2000 until, at least, 2015. Additionally, an evaluation is made of the evolutionary dynamics of the central variables of this work (exchange rate, inflation and interest). Before, however, a theoretical revision on theories of inflation and exchange rate determination, as well as international experiences in the implementation of the regime, is undertaken. It is observed in the results of this work that the IPCA reacts more significantly to the shocks in the exchange rate than to the interest rate shocks. In addition, exchange rate shocks have a more durable persistence, compared to interest shocks, thus constituting the variable (among the two) that is most relevant for determining the IPCA in the observed period.Este trabalho versa sobre o repasse das variações cambiais aos níveis de preço no Brasil num contexto de câmbio flexível e Regime de Metas de Inflação (RMI), abarcando o período de 1999 a 2015. Busca-se investigar como o Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) reage aos choques na taxa de juros e de câmbio, com intuito de identificar qual das variáveis possui maior significância para explicar as variações no IPCA. Para tanto, faz uma revisão bibliográfica dos trabalhos empíricos realizados no âmbito da estimação do repasse cambial no Brasil no período de 1999/2000 até, no mínimo, 2015. Adicionalmente, faz-se uma avaliação da dinâmica evolutiva das variáveis centrais deste trabalho (câmbio, inflação e juros). Antes, porém, empreende-se uma revisão teórica acerca das teorias inflacionárias e de determinação do câmbio, bem como das experiências internacionais na implantação do regime. Observa-se, nos resultados deste trabalho, que o IPCA reage de forma mais significativa aos choques na taxa de câmbio que aos choques na taxa de juros. Além disso, os choques da taxa de câmbio têm persistência mais duradoura, comparativamente aos choques dos juros, constituindo assim, a variável (dentre as duas) com maior relevância para a determinação do IPCA no período observado.Submitted by Rosivalda Pereira (mrs.pereira@ufma.br) on 2018-07-09T21:11:25Z No. of bitstreams: 1 GeylsonPereira.pdf: 1585980 bytes, checksum: 263adce1d8a436050538968a28980a7f (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2018-07-09T21:11:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 GeylsonPereira.pdf: 1585980 bytes, checksum: 263adce1d8a436050538968a28980a7f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-03-07CAPESapplication/pdfporUniversidade Federal do MaranhãoPROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM DESENVOLVIMENTO SOCIOECONOMICO/CCSOUFMABrasilDEPARTAMENTO DE ECONOMIA/CCSOInflaçãoCâmbioJurosPolítica MonetáriaRegime de Metas de InflaçãoInflationExchangeInterestMonetary policyInflation Target Regime (IMR)Economia Monetária e FiscalO repasse cambial no contexto do regime de metas de inflação: a experiência brasileira de 1999 a 2015.The exchange rate pass-through in the context of the inflation targeting regime: the Brazilian experience from 1999 to 2015.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFMAinstname:Universidade Federal do Maranhão (UFMA)instacron:UFMAORIGINALGeylsonPereira.pdfGeylsonPereira.pdfapplication/pdf1585980http://tedebc.ufma.br:8080/bitstream/tede/2307/2/GeylsonPereira.pdf263adce1d8a436050538968a28980a7fMD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82255http://tedebc.ufma.br:8080/bitstream/tede/2307/1/license.txt97eeade1fce43278e63fe063657f8083MD51tede/23072018-07-09 18:11:25.809oai:tede2: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Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttps://tedebc.ufma.br/jspui/PUBhttp://tedebc.ufma.br:8080/oai/requestrepositorio@ufma.br||repositorio@ufma.bropendoar:21312018-07-09T21:11:25Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFMA - Universidade Federal do Maranhão (UFMA)false
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv O repasse cambial no contexto do regime de metas de inflação: a experiência brasileira de 1999 a 2015.
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv The exchange rate pass-through in the context of the inflation targeting regime: the Brazilian experience from 1999 to 2015.
title O repasse cambial no contexto do regime de metas de inflação: a experiência brasileira de 1999 a 2015.
spellingShingle O repasse cambial no contexto do regime de metas de inflação: a experiência brasileira de 1999 a 2015.
PEREIRA, Geylson Serra
Inflação
Câmbio
Juros
Política Monetária
Regime de Metas de Inflação
Inflation
Exchange
Interest
Monetary policy
Inflation Target Regime (IMR)
Economia Monetária e Fiscal
title_short O repasse cambial no contexto do regime de metas de inflação: a experiência brasileira de 1999 a 2015.
title_full O repasse cambial no contexto do regime de metas de inflação: a experiência brasileira de 1999 a 2015.
title_fullStr O repasse cambial no contexto do regime de metas de inflação: a experiência brasileira de 1999 a 2015.
title_full_unstemmed O repasse cambial no contexto do regime de metas de inflação: a experiência brasileira de 1999 a 2015.
title_sort O repasse cambial no contexto do regime de metas de inflação: a experiência brasileira de 1999 a 2015.
author PEREIRA, Geylson Serra
author_facet PEREIRA, Geylson Serra
author_role author
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv MOURA, João Gonsalo de
dc.contributor.advisor1ID.fl_str_mv 310.142.913-72
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/4375641235722764
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv PAULA, Ricardo Zimbrão Affonso de
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv HOLANDA, Felipe Macedo de
dc.contributor.authorID.fl_str_mv 052.749.283-31
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/7221491143343886
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv PEREIRA, Geylson Serra
contributor_str_mv MOURA, João Gonsalo de
PAULA, Ricardo Zimbrão Affonso de
HOLANDA, Felipe Macedo de
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Inflação
Câmbio
Juros
Política Monetária
Regime de Metas de Inflação
topic Inflação
Câmbio
Juros
Política Monetária
Regime de Metas de Inflação
Inflation
Exchange
Interest
Monetary policy
Inflation Target Regime (IMR)
Economia Monetária e Fiscal
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Inflation
Exchange
Interest
Monetary policy
Inflation Target Regime (IMR)
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv Economia Monetária e Fiscal
description This work deals with the transfer of exchange rate variations to price levels in Brazil in a context of flexible exchange rate and Inflation Target Regime (IMR), covering the period from 1999 to 2015. It seeks to investigate how the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) responds to shocks in the interest rate and exchange rate, in order to identify which of the variables has the greatest significance to explain the variations in the IPCA. To do so, it reviews the empirical work carried out in the framework of the estimation of exchange rate transfers in Brazil in the period 1999/2000 until, at least, 2015. Additionally, an evaluation is made of the evolutionary dynamics of the central variables of this work (exchange rate, inflation and interest). Before, however, a theoretical revision on theories of inflation and exchange rate determination, as well as international experiences in the implementation of the regime, is undertaken. It is observed in the results of this work that the IPCA reacts more significantly to the shocks in the exchange rate than to the interest rate shocks. In addition, exchange rate shocks have a more durable persistence, compared to interest shocks, thus constituting the variable (among the two) that is most relevant for determining the IPCA in the observed period.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2018-07-09T21:11:25Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2018-03-07
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv PEREIRA, Geylson Serra. O repasse cambial no contexto do regime de metas de inflação: a experiência brasileira de 1999 a 2015. 2018. 121 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Desenvolvimento Socioeconomico) - Universidade Federal do Maranhão, São Luís, 2018.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://tedebc.ufma.br/jspui/handle/tede/2307
identifier_str_mv PEREIRA, Geylson Serra. O repasse cambial no contexto do regime de metas de inflação: a experiência brasileira de 1999 a 2015. 2018. 121 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Desenvolvimento Socioeconomico) - Universidade Federal do Maranhão, São Luís, 2018.
url https://tedebc.ufma.br/jspui/handle/tede/2307
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal do Maranhão
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM DESENVOLVIMENTO SOCIOECONOMICO/CCSO
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv UFMA
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv Brasil
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv DEPARTAMENTO DE ECONOMIA/CCSO
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal do Maranhão
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFMA
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instacron:UFMA
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institution UFMA
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collection Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFMA
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