Din?mica ambiental da bacia hidrogr?fica do Rio Juru? na Amaz?nia ocidental.

• Ano de defesa: 2019
• Autor(a) principal: Abel, Elton Luis da Silva
• Orientador(a): Delgado, Rafael Coll
• Banca de defesa: Delgado, Rafael Coll , Abreu, Marcel Carvalho , Menezes, Sady J?nior Martins Costa de , Rodrigues, Rafael de ?vila , Souza, Leonardo Paula de
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa de P?s-Gradua??o em Ci?ncias Ambientais e Florestais
• Departamento: Instituto de Florestas
• País: Brasil
• Palavras-chave em Português: Floresta tropical; Clima; Sensoriamento remoto; Import?ncia h?drica
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Rainforest; Climate; Remote sensing; Water importance
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: Recursos Florestais e Engenharia Florestal; Ecologia
• Link de acesso: https://tede.ufrrj.br/jspui/handle/jspui/5747

The region of the hydrographic basin of the Juru? River, an important tributary of the Amazon River and considered one of the most sinuous rivers in the world, lacks scientific information when related to climatic and environmental variables, which end up imposing influences on the local social and economic organization. Understanding this past and future environmental dynamics is an important tool for managing the territory and it?s natural resources. In this sense, this study intends to reduce the information gap in the region with a study of the time series from 2001 to 2018 of climatic, hydrological variables, vegetation and fires, in addition to generating a future scenario of the water dynamics of the Juru? Basin with implications for ecosystems services. Monthly data on the average surface temperature, rain and soil moisture obtained from the reanalysis were used; heat source data obtained from MOD14V006 - active fire products; vegetation index - EVI and surface water index - NDFI, products of MOD13A3. All variables were characterized by means of descriptive statistics, Boxplot, Principal Component Analysis-ACP, Correlation and the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt trend analysis tests were applied. The ARIMA model was used to simulate future changes to the NDFI, then trend tests were applied. All processing took place in software R version 3.5.1. The years with the lowest average monthly rainfall in the series were 2010 (155.62 mm), 2016 (163.15 mm) and 2005 (169.93 mm) also observed for soil moisture 2005 (435 mm) and 2016 (448 mm ); the years with the highest monthly average rainfall were 2009 (207.31 mm) and 2014 (202.80 mm), with the highest values of flooded areas in January, 23,772 km2. The highest concentration of fire outbreaks occurred in August (1,142) and September (1,547), coinciding with the lowest NDFI values found (1,421 km2 and 890 km2), with the years 2005 and 2010 with the largest records of outbreaks: 5,427 and 4,559. The EVI presented the highest values in the months of October (0.566), November (0.573) and December (0.560), the beginning of the rainy season and the lowest values in June (0.502) and July (0.503), coinciding with the period of lower precipitation and average temperature. The years 2015 with 22,275 km2 and 2009 with 16,140 km2 with the largest records of flooded area, and 2010 with 1,764 km2 and 2005 with 1,967 km2 with the lowest records. The ACP pointed out rain as the variable with the greatest influence on the dynamics of the Juru? basin with a contribution of 0.98, followed by the outbreaks of fire with -0.90. The NDFI showed a high correlation with rain, which in turn proved to be closely linked to the environmental dynamics of the Juru? River basin, with direct responses in the behavior of vegetation, the river's water dynamics and the occurrence of fires, thereby allowing the generation of a reliable future scenario based on ARIMA modeling, with an expression of seasonality and a significant tendency to decrease flooded areas by 2030.