Saúde, envelhecimento populacional e crescimento econômico: uma análise para os estados brasileiros (1990-2015)

• Ano de defesa: 2019
• Autor(a) principal: Silva, Valéria Andrade
• Orientador(a): Esperidião, Fernanda
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Pós-Graduação em Economia
• Palavras-chave em Português: Crescimento econômico; Envelhecimento populacional; Saúde
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Economic growth; Population aging; Health
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::COMUNICACAO
• Link de acesso: http://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/10737

The objective of this study is to evaluate the relationship between population aging, health and economic growth in the Brazilian states between 1990 and 2015. The literature draws attention to the fact that the process of population aging, which occurs in all countries, is characterized by the change in morbidity and mortality patterns of the population. Thus, concomitant to this process, the epidemiological transition is observed, in which there is a reduction of the infectocontagious diseases and an increase of the chronic degenerative diseases. All these changes have significant effects on social and economic variables. However, the literature shows that there is a duality towards the effects of both health and population aging on economic growth. In order to observe this behavior, two methods were proposed in panel data for the Brazilian states, namely: (i) the System GMM method developed by Blundell and Bond (1998) and (ii) Quantum Regression by Canay (2011), and for the latter, time windows were used. In the System GMM model, the logarithm of the real GDP per capita as a dependent variable is used, and in the Quantum Regression, the real GDP growth rate per capita, both to capture also the convergence of income. The results obtained in this study indicate that, in the Brazilian states, the increase in the proportion of the elderly and the dependency ratio have not caused real GDP per capita reduction, although, when the relationship of these variables with time lag is observed, there is an effect negative. Overall, the effects are positive, indicating that, in Brazil, from 1990 to 2015, population aging did not cause a reduction in the economy, which may be related to the fact that there is still a larger proportion of the population in age, since the demographic bonus is happening. It is also observed that the increase in the population aged 65 and over has a positive effect on the distribution of real GDP growth per capita, but, at the same time, it has an effect of increasing the inequalities between them, dispersing -at. With regard to health, the infant mortality rate did not show a significant effect on economic growth. It is concluded that, in Brazil, the effects of the increase of the elderly population are not yet so apparent, but it does not fail to present itself as an alert, since there is a tendency to increase this population to the detriment of the population in the active phase, which may have negative future effects if there are no investments in human capital, such as health and education, and improvements in the social protection system.