Análise causal intertemporal do consumo de combustíveis fósseis na emissão de dióxido de carbono
Ano de defesa: | 2021 |
---|---|
Autor(a) principal: | |
Orientador(a): | |
Banca de defesa: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Idioma: | por |
Instituição de defesa: |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria
Centro de Tecnologia |
Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Produção
|
Departamento: |
Engenharia de Produção
|
País: |
Brasil
|
Palavras-chave em Português: | |
Palavras-chave em Inglês: | |
Área do conhecimento CNPq: | |
Link de acesso: | http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/22021 |
Resumo: | Since the Industrial Revolution, the world has relied on non-renewable energy sources and the participation of fossil fossils, throughout history, has been fundamental to strengthening the economy of many countries. Despite leveraging economic growth, there has been an intense increase in carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. Although there may still be uncertainties about the magnitude of the impacts of this gas, global warming is one of the main consequences, causing concerns from the perspective of economic and sustainable development. Therefore, this research arises with the objective of determining the intertemporal relationship in the short and long term dynamics caused by the consumption of coal, oil and natural gas in the emission of carbon dioxide by the G7 countries in the period from 1965 to 2018. To achieve the proposed objective, the Auto-regressive and Distributed Lag and Bound test models for detecting cointegration were used. As a result, due to structural breaks in the variables, the best model selected was the one that incorporated two dummy variables for the break periods (1978 and 1990). Positive unidirectional causality was identified, in the sense that the consumption of fossil fuels provides an increase in carbon dioxide emissions. Short-term elasticities indicate that an increase of 1 percentage point in the consumption of oil, coal and natural gas will cause, respectively, an increase of 0.4823%, 0.3140% and 0.1717% in carbon dioxide emissions. In the long run, the increase of 1 percentage point in the consumption of oil, coal and natural gas will cause, respectively, an increase of 0.4924%, 0.2692% and 0.1829% in carbon dioxide emissions. The error correction model indicates that 47.39% of a shock in the carbon dioxide emissions variable is resolved in one year, such that, after 2 years, the carbon dioxide emissions return to long-term equilibrium. |
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2021-08-20T18:37:42Z2021-08-20T18:37:42Z2021-02-18http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/22021Since the Industrial Revolution, the world has relied on non-renewable energy sources and the participation of fossil fossils, throughout history, has been fundamental to strengthening the economy of many countries. Despite leveraging economic growth, there has been an intense increase in carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. Although there may still be uncertainties about the magnitude of the impacts of this gas, global warming is one of the main consequences, causing concerns from the perspective of economic and sustainable development. Therefore, this research arises with the objective of determining the intertemporal relationship in the short and long term dynamics caused by the consumption of coal, oil and natural gas in the emission of carbon dioxide by the G7 countries in the period from 1965 to 2018. To achieve the proposed objective, the Auto-regressive and Distributed Lag and Bound test models for detecting cointegration were used. As a result, due to structural breaks in the variables, the best model selected was the one that incorporated two dummy variables for the break periods (1978 and 1990). Positive unidirectional causality was identified, in the sense that the consumption of fossil fuels provides an increase in carbon dioxide emissions. Short-term elasticities indicate that an increase of 1 percentage point in the consumption of oil, coal and natural gas will cause, respectively, an increase of 0.4823%, 0.3140% and 0.1717% in carbon dioxide emissions. In the long run, the increase of 1 percentage point in the consumption of oil, coal and natural gas will cause, respectively, an increase of 0.4924%, 0.2692% and 0.1829% in carbon dioxide emissions. The error correction model indicates that 47.39% of a shock in the carbon dioxide emissions variable is resolved in one year, such that, after 2 years, the carbon dioxide emissions return to long-term equilibrium.Desde a Revolução Industrial, o mundo apoia-se em fontes de energia não renováveis e a participação dos combustíveis fósseis, no decorrer da história, foi fundamental para o fortalecimento da economia de muitos países. Apesar de alavancar o crescimento econômico, houve um intenso aumento nas emissões de dióxido de carbono na atmosfera. Embora ainda possam existir incertezas sobre a magnitude dos impactos deste gás, o aquecimento global é uma das principais consequências, acarretando preocupações na perspectiva do desenvolvimento econômico e sustentável. Por isso, essa pesquisa surge com o objetivo de determinar a relação intertemporal na dinâmica de curto e longo prazo causada pelo consumo de carvão, petróleo e gás natural na emissão de dióxido de carbono pelos países do G7 no período de 1965 a 2018. Para atingir o objetivo proposto, os modelos Autorregressivos e de Defasagens Distribuídas e Bound test para detecção de cointegração foram utilizados. Como resultados, em decorrência de quebras estruturais nas variáveis, o melhor modelo selecionado foi aquele que incorporou duas variáveis dummies para os períodos de quebra (1978 e 1990). Foi identificada causalidade unidirecional positiva, no sentido de que o consumo de combustíveis fósseis proporciona o aumento das emissões de dióxido de carbono. As elasticidades no curto prazo indicam que o aumento de 1 ponto percentual do consumo de petróleo, carvão e gás natural irá ocasionar, respectivamente, o aumento de 0,4823%, 0,3140% e 0,1717% nas emissões de dióxido de carbono. A longo prazo, o aumento de 1 ponto percentual no consumo de petróleo, carvão e gás natural irá ocasionar, respectivamente, o aumento de 0,4924%, 0,2692% e 0,1829% nas emissões de dióxido de carbono. O modelo de correção de erros indica que 47,39% de um choque na variável das emissões de dióxido de carbono é resolvido em um ano, tal que, após 2 anos, as emissões de dióxido de carbono retornam ao equilíbrio de longo prazo.porUniversidade Federal de Santa MariaCentro de TecnologiaPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de ProduçãoUFSMBrasilEngenharia de ProduçãoAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCombustíveis fósseisDióxido de carbonoModelos autorregressivos e de defasagens distribuídasCointegraçãoG7Fossil fuelsCarbon dioxideAutoregressive distributed lags modelsCointegrationCNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA DE PRODUCAOAnálise causal intertemporal do consumo de combustíveis fósseis na emissão de dióxido de carbonoIntertemporal causal analysis of fossil fuels consumption in carbon dioxide emissioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisSouza, Adriano Mendonçahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/5271075797851198Coronel, Daniel ArrudaAngioletto, Elidiohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/0228765268754495Martins, Tailon300800000005600600600600c8e52001-817e-46c0-b541-46e1da5d410ef36a0aa3-f01e-4e98-8f98-ab4f2649ccdac05e6d3a-5583-418b-9974-579627bcf22370c1d3c9-edce-4414-996e-7a3a54a59f79reponame:Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSMinstname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMORIGINALDIS_PPGEP_2021_MARTINS_TAILON.pdfDIS_PPGEP_2021_MARTINS_TAILON.pdfDissertação de Mestradoapplication/pdf1336715http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/22021/1/DIS_PPGEP_2021_MARTINS_TAILON.pdf0600dcfd0e9980408593d262fbf00000MD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Análise causal intertemporal do consumo de combustíveis fósseis na emissão de dióxido de carbono |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Intertemporal causal analysis of fossil fuels consumption in carbon dioxide emission |
title |
Análise causal intertemporal do consumo de combustíveis fósseis na emissão de dióxido de carbono |
spellingShingle |
Análise causal intertemporal do consumo de combustíveis fósseis na emissão de dióxido de carbono Martins, Tailon Combustíveis fósseis Dióxido de carbono Modelos autorregressivos e de defasagens distribuídas Cointegração G7 Fossil fuels Carbon dioxide Autoregressive distributed lags models Cointegration CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA DE PRODUCAO |
title_short |
Análise causal intertemporal do consumo de combustíveis fósseis na emissão de dióxido de carbono |
title_full |
Análise causal intertemporal do consumo de combustíveis fósseis na emissão de dióxido de carbono |
title_fullStr |
Análise causal intertemporal do consumo de combustíveis fósseis na emissão de dióxido de carbono |
title_full_unstemmed |
Análise causal intertemporal do consumo de combustíveis fósseis na emissão de dióxido de carbono |
title_sort |
Análise causal intertemporal do consumo de combustíveis fósseis na emissão de dióxido de carbono |
author |
Martins, Tailon |
author_facet |
Martins, Tailon |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Souza, Adriano Mendonça |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/5271075797851198 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Coronel, Daniel Arruda |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Angioletto, Elidio |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/0228765268754495 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Martins, Tailon |
contributor_str_mv |
Souza, Adriano Mendonça Coronel, Daniel Arruda Angioletto, Elidio |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Combustíveis fósseis Dióxido de carbono Modelos autorregressivos e de defasagens distribuídas Cointegração G7 |
topic |
Combustíveis fósseis Dióxido de carbono Modelos autorregressivos e de defasagens distribuídas Cointegração G7 Fossil fuels Carbon dioxide Autoregressive distributed lags models Cointegration CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA DE PRODUCAO |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Fossil fuels Carbon dioxide Autoregressive distributed lags models Cointegration |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA DE PRODUCAO |
description |
Since the Industrial Revolution, the world has relied on non-renewable energy sources and the participation of fossil fossils, throughout history, has been fundamental to strengthening the economy of many countries. Despite leveraging economic growth, there has been an intense increase in carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. Although there may still be uncertainties about the magnitude of the impacts of this gas, global warming is one of the main consequences, causing concerns from the perspective of economic and sustainable development. Therefore, this research arises with the objective of determining the intertemporal relationship in the short and long term dynamics caused by the consumption of coal, oil and natural gas in the emission of carbon dioxide by the G7 countries in the period from 1965 to 2018. To achieve the proposed objective, the Auto-regressive and Distributed Lag and Bound test models for detecting cointegration were used. As a result, due to structural breaks in the variables, the best model selected was the one that incorporated two dummy variables for the break periods (1978 and 1990). Positive unidirectional causality was identified, in the sense that the consumption of fossil fuels provides an increase in carbon dioxide emissions. Short-term elasticities indicate that an increase of 1 percentage point in the consumption of oil, coal and natural gas will cause, respectively, an increase of 0.4823%, 0.3140% and 0.1717% in carbon dioxide emissions. In the long run, the increase of 1 percentage point in the consumption of oil, coal and natural gas will cause, respectively, an increase of 0.4924%, 0.2692% and 0.1829% in carbon dioxide emissions. The error correction model indicates that 47.39% of a shock in the carbon dioxide emissions variable is resolved in one year, such that, after 2 years, the carbon dioxide emissions return to long-term equilibrium. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2021-08-20T18:37:42Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2021-08-20T18:37:42Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2021-02-18 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
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300800000005 |
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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
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openAccess |
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Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Tecnologia |
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Engenharia de Produção |
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Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Tecnologia |
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