Modelos de autômatos celulares para febre amarela silvestre em bugios
Ano de defesa: | 2018 |
---|---|
Autor(a) principal: | |
Orientador(a): | |
Banca de defesa: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Idioma: | por |
Instituição de defesa: |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria
Centro de Ciências Naturais e Exatas |
Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Matemática
|
Departamento: |
Matemática
|
País: |
Brasil
|
Palavras-chave em Português: | |
Palavras-chave em Inglês: | |
Área do conhecimento CNPq: | |
Link de acesso: | http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/13713 |
Resumo: | In this work, discrete mathematical models are proposed to analyze the dynamics of a population of howler monkeys stricken with periodic outbreaks of yellow fever. Using the cellular automata framework, the models describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the population inhabiting an isolated or a fragmented forest. Initially, in the time scale of the epizootic, a first cellular automaton model considering only the movement of mosquitoes and howler monkeys, the vital dynamics of the mosquitoes and the yellow fever dynamics in a fragmented and remote forest region is proposed. The probability of extinction of the population of howler monkeys is estimated for several parameters sets. The model is also applied to a fragmented forest region. Through this model, the probabilities of extinction are measured not only for the total population of howler monkeys but for populations living in different fragments of forest. A model for the vital dynamics of the population of howler monkeys is proposed, taking into account the probabilities of births and deaths of howler monkeys, as well as the probability of deaths due to intraspecific competition. The evolution of population size is obtained through several simulations. We observed that the number of individual reaches a constant value which depends on the intraspecific competition. Finally, we combine the model for the population vital dynamics with the cellular automata for the evolution of the population under a yellow fever outbreak to study the long-term survival of the species. We observed the persistence of the howler monkeys depends on the carrying capacity and on the transmission rates. |
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2018-07-09T22:19:31Z2018-07-09T22:19:31Z2018-02-28http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/13713In this work, discrete mathematical models are proposed to analyze the dynamics of a population of howler monkeys stricken with periodic outbreaks of yellow fever. Using the cellular automata framework, the models describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the population inhabiting an isolated or a fragmented forest. Initially, in the time scale of the epizootic, a first cellular automaton model considering only the movement of mosquitoes and howler monkeys, the vital dynamics of the mosquitoes and the yellow fever dynamics in a fragmented and remote forest region is proposed. The probability of extinction of the population of howler monkeys is estimated for several parameters sets. The model is also applied to a fragmented forest region. Through this model, the probabilities of extinction are measured not only for the total population of howler monkeys but for populations living in different fragments of forest. A model for the vital dynamics of the population of howler monkeys is proposed, taking into account the probabilities of births and deaths of howler monkeys, as well as the probability of deaths due to intraspecific competition. The evolution of population size is obtained through several simulations. We observed that the number of individual reaches a constant value which depends on the intraspecific competition. Finally, we combine the model for the population vital dynamics with the cellular automata for the evolution of the population under a yellow fever outbreak to study the long-term survival of the species. We observed the persistence of the howler monkeys depends on the carrying capacity and on the transmission rates.Neste trabalho, são propostos modelos matemáticos discretos para analisar a dinâmica de uma população de bugios acometida por surtos periódicos de febre amarela. Com o uso de autômatos celulares, os modelos representam a evolução temporal da população que habita uma mata isolada ou fragmentada. Inicialmente, na escala de tempo de duração da epizootia, um primeiro modelo de autômato celular considerando apenas a movimentação dos mosquitos e bugios, a dinâmica vital dos mosquitos e a dinâmica da febre amarela em um fragmento de mata isolado é proposto. A probabilidade de extinção da população de bugios é estimada para vários conjuntos de parâmetros. O mesmo modelo é aplicado a uma região de mata fragmentada. Através do modelo, as probabilidades de extinção são medidas não somente para a população total de bugios mas para as populações que vivem em fragmentos distintos de mata. Um modelo para a dinâmica vital da população dos bugios é proposto, levando em conta as probabilidades de nascimentos e mortes dos bugios, assim como, a probabilidade de mortes devido à competição intraespecífica. A evolução do número de indivíduos da população é acompanhada em diversas simulações. Observamos que a população aproxima-se de um valor constante que depende dos parâmetros da competição intraespecífica. Finalmente, combinamos o modelo para a dinâmica vital da população com o autômato celular para a evolução da população quando ocorrem surtos de febre amarela para estudar a sobrevivência da espécie ao longo dos anos. Observamos que a persistência da população depende da capacidade suporte e das taxas de contágio.porUniversidade Federal de Santa MariaCentro de Ciências Naturais e ExatasPrograma de Pós-Graduação em MatemáticaUFSMBrasilMatemáticaAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessFebre amarelaBugiosAutômatos celularesModelos matemáticosArboviroseAlouattaEpizootiaYellow feverHowler monkeyCellular automataMathematical modelsArbovirosisAlouattaEpizooticCNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::MATEMATICAModelos de autômatos celulares para febre amarela silvestre em bugiosModels of cellular automata for wild yellow fever in howler monkeysinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisRodrigues, Luiz Alberto Díazhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/9198489380493317Emmendorfer, Leonardo Ramoshttp://lattes.cnpq.br/1129100746134234Fortes, Vanessa Barbisanhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/8653825432541646http://lattes.cnpq.br/7157161020322155Silva, Felipe Santos da100100000008600d9779333-92f7-4d34-94b4-18f90b2d4fd42965bdd1-4de6-442f-921c-7d916db2b3ce47d7812d-9521-4edd-8626-e1413212aac5c2846805-0002-432d-929a-009e9466b617reponame:Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSMinstname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMORIGINALDIS_PPGMATEMATICA_2018_SILVA_FELIPE.pdfDIS_PPGMATEMATICA_2018_SILVA_FELIPE.pdfDissertação de Mestradoapplication/pdf5074523http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/13713/1/DIS_PPGMATEMATICA_2018_SILVA_FELIPE.pdf7aaca8aefbb28fcfc41b80325ff2140aMD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Modelos de autômatos celulares para febre amarela silvestre em bugios |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Models of cellular automata for wild yellow fever in howler monkeys |
title |
Modelos de autômatos celulares para febre amarela silvestre em bugios |
spellingShingle |
Modelos de autômatos celulares para febre amarela silvestre em bugios Silva, Felipe Santos da Febre amarela Bugios Autômatos celulares Modelos matemáticos Arbovirose Alouatta Epizootia Yellow fever Howler monkey Cellular automata Mathematical models Arbovirosis Alouatta Epizootic CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::MATEMATICA |
title_short |
Modelos de autômatos celulares para febre amarela silvestre em bugios |
title_full |
Modelos de autômatos celulares para febre amarela silvestre em bugios |
title_fullStr |
Modelos de autômatos celulares para febre amarela silvestre em bugios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelos de autômatos celulares para febre amarela silvestre em bugios |
title_sort |
Modelos de autômatos celulares para febre amarela silvestre em bugios |
author |
Silva, Felipe Santos da |
author_facet |
Silva, Felipe Santos da |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Rodrigues, Luiz Alberto Díaz |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/9198489380493317 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Emmendorfer, Leonardo Ramos |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/1129100746134234 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Fortes, Vanessa Barbisan |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/8653825432541646 |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/7157161020322155 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Silva, Felipe Santos da |
contributor_str_mv |
Rodrigues, Luiz Alberto Díaz Emmendorfer, Leonardo Ramos Fortes, Vanessa Barbisan |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Febre amarela Bugios Autômatos celulares Modelos matemáticos Arbovirose Alouatta Epizootia |
topic |
Febre amarela Bugios Autômatos celulares Modelos matemáticos Arbovirose Alouatta Epizootia Yellow fever Howler monkey Cellular automata Mathematical models Arbovirosis Alouatta Epizootic CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::MATEMATICA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Yellow fever Howler monkey Cellular automata Mathematical models Arbovirosis Alouatta Epizootic |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::MATEMATICA |
description |
In this work, discrete mathematical models are proposed to analyze the dynamics of a population of howler monkeys stricken with periodic outbreaks of yellow fever. Using the cellular automata framework, the models describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the population inhabiting an isolated or a fragmented forest. Initially, in the time scale of the epizootic, a first cellular automaton model considering only the movement of mosquitoes and howler monkeys, the vital dynamics of the mosquitoes and the yellow fever dynamics in a fragmented and remote forest region is proposed. The probability of extinction of the population of howler monkeys is estimated for several parameters sets. The model is also applied to a fragmented forest region. Through this model, the probabilities of extinction are measured not only for the total population of howler monkeys but for populations living in different fragments of forest. A model for the vital dynamics of the population of howler monkeys is proposed, taking into account the probabilities of births and deaths of howler monkeys, as well as the probability of deaths due to intraspecific competition. The evolution of population size is obtained through several simulations. We observed that the number of individual reaches a constant value which depends on the intraspecific competition. Finally, we combine the model for the population vital dynamics with the cellular automata for the evolution of the population under a yellow fever outbreak to study the long-term survival of the species. We observed the persistence of the howler monkeys depends on the carrying capacity and on the transmission rates. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2018-07-09T22:19:31Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2018-07-09T22:19:31Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2018-02-28 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/13713 |
url |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/13713 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
100100000008 |
dc.relation.confidence.fl_str_mv |
600 |
dc.relation.authority.fl_str_mv |
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dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Ciências Naturais e Exatas |
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv |
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Matemática |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
UFSM |
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv |
Brasil |
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv |
Matemática |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Ciências Naturais e Exatas |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
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