Endividamento e gasto privado: uma abordagem aplicada pós-Keynesiana para o Brasil (2005-2017)
Ano de defesa: | 2018 |
---|---|
Autor(a) principal: | |
Orientador(a): | |
Banca de defesa: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Idioma: | por |
Instituição de defesa: |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria
Centro de Ciências Sociais e Humanas |
Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia e Desenvolvimento
|
Departamento: |
Economia
|
País: |
Brasil
|
Palavras-chave em Português: | |
Palavras-chave em Inglês: | |
Área do conhecimento CNPq: | |
Link de acesso: | http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/15128 |
Resumo: | The beginning of the third millennium brought with it a global financial crisis of multiple implications for the economies and for the international financial system. With the collapse, the doubts about the mechanisms of a monetary production economy that, related to the performance of the currency and the importance of credit and financing for the expenditure of families and firms, have changed since the beginning of the century XX to the present, creating processes of possible financial instability. The present work uses a modern post-Keynesian approach based on the "New Cambridge", of stock-flow consistent modeling, which tries to identify how the mismatch, over time, between the real sector and the financial sector of an economy is an important cause for how the modern economic system endogenously gests financial instability. Through an econometric time series modeling, which used data for the Brazilian economy quarterly between 2005 and 2017, the results demonstrate that in this period there was a tendency of families in Brazil to consume more through debt, than through disposable income. While funding is a key element of a modern-day monetary economy, the New Cambridge approach assists to alert that, not only can unsustainable financial processes appear in an economy, but they are persistent and can take a long time to adjust to be overcome - relegating the economy from a more sustained trajectory of growth. Thus, resources are being directed to the financial system instead of the productive system, through the worsening of families and firms‘ financial position, the high public bonds‘ debt, and forms of acquiring resources externally, even though it does not represent a scenario of external vulnerability, are heavily based in financing and through foreign direct investment which does not reinvests itself internally, becoming profit remittances. In the light of the ―New Cambridge‖ approach, the three Brazilian Financial Balances present, therefore, potential for financial instability, restricting economic growth by the financial units‘ adjustment period, in addition to being capable of gestating crises in the future. |
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2018-12-18T19:02:39Z2018-12-18T19:02:39Z2018-01-31http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/15128The beginning of the third millennium brought with it a global financial crisis of multiple implications for the economies and for the international financial system. With the collapse, the doubts about the mechanisms of a monetary production economy that, related to the performance of the currency and the importance of credit and financing for the expenditure of families and firms, have changed since the beginning of the century XX to the present, creating processes of possible financial instability. The present work uses a modern post-Keynesian approach based on the "New Cambridge", of stock-flow consistent modeling, which tries to identify how the mismatch, over time, between the real sector and the financial sector of an economy is an important cause for how the modern economic system endogenously gests financial instability. Through an econometric time series modeling, which used data for the Brazilian economy quarterly between 2005 and 2017, the results demonstrate that in this period there was a tendency of families in Brazil to consume more through debt, than through disposable income. While funding is a key element of a modern-day monetary economy, the New Cambridge approach assists to alert that, not only can unsustainable financial processes appear in an economy, but they are persistent and can take a long time to adjust to be overcome - relegating the economy from a more sustained trajectory of growth. Thus, resources are being directed to the financial system instead of the productive system, through the worsening of families and firms‘ financial position, the high public bonds‘ debt, and forms of acquiring resources externally, even though it does not represent a scenario of external vulnerability, are heavily based in financing and through foreign direct investment which does not reinvests itself internally, becoming profit remittances. In the light of the ―New Cambridge‖ approach, the three Brazilian Financial Balances present, therefore, potential for financial instability, restricting economic growth by the financial units‘ adjustment period, in addition to being capable of gestating crises in the future.O começo do terceiro milênio trouxe consigo uma crise financeira global de implicações múltiplas para as economias e para o sistema financeiro internacional. Com o colapso, veio novamente a dúvida sobre os mecanismos de funcionamento de uma economia monetária de produção que, relacionados à atuação da moeda e à importância do crédito e do financiamento para o gasto de famílias e firmas, como os instrumentos financeiros evoluíram desde o século XX até o presente, gestando processos de possível instabilidade financeira. O presente trabalho utiliza de uma abordagem pós-keynesiana moderna baseada na norma ―New Cambridge‖, de modelagem aplicada consistente entre estoques e fluxos, que tenta identificar como o descompasso, ao longo do tempo, entre o setor real e o setor financeiro de uma economia é uma importante causa para como o sistema econômico moderno gesta endogenamente a instabilidade financeira. Através de uma modelagem econométrica de séries temporais, que utilizou dados para a economia brasileira trimestralmente entre 2005 e 2017, os resultados demonstram que neste período existiu uma tendência das famílias no Brasil a consumirem mais pela via do endividamento, do que propriamente pela renda disponível. Apesar de o financiamento ser um elemento chave de uma economia monetária de produção moderna, a abordagem ―New Cambridge‖ auxilia no alerta de que, não só processos financeiros insustentáveis podem aparecer em uma economia, mas são persistentes e podem levar um longo tempo de ajuste para serem superados – relegando a economia de uma trajetória mais sustentada de crescimento. Com isso, existe um direcionamento de recursos para o sistema financeiro em detrimento do setor produtivo no Brasil, pela piora da posição financeira de famílias e firmas, a alta carga de dívida mobiliária do governo por causa dos títulos da dívida, e as formas de captação de recursos externos, ainda que não representem um cenário de vulnerabilidade externa, são fortemente baseados em financiamento e em investimento direto estrangeiro que não se reinveste internamente, traduzindo-se em remessas de lucros. À luz da Abordagem ―New Cambridge‖, os três Balanços Financeiros brasileiros apresentam, portanto, potencial de instabilidade financeira, restringindo o crescimento econômico pelo período de ajuste das unidades financeiras, além de ser capaz de gestar crises futuramente.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPESporUniversidade Federal de Santa MariaCentro de Ciências Sociais e HumanasPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Economia e DesenvolvimentoUFSMBrasilEconomiaAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessInstabilidade financeiraAbordagem "New Cambridge"Consistente entre estoques e fluxosSéries temporaisEconomia brasileiraFinancial instability"New Cambridge" approachStock-flow consistentTime seriesBrazilian economyCNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIAEndividamento e gasto privado: uma abordagem aplicada pós-Keynesiana para o Brasil (2005-2017)Private borrowing and expenditure: a post-Keynesian applied approach for Brazil (2005-2017)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisFeistel, Paulo Ricardohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/9828248768218577Rohenkohl, Júlio Eduardohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/1171683006014352Silva, Simone Fiorittihttp://lattes.cnpq.br/8480645142519713http://lattes.cnpq.br/8357434101926890Longhi, Giuliano Manera6003000000006000c261596-3e0e-41ee-ad1d-43ff5a38a052a68579f5-8212-4136-9905-7b37835f6a11a302e9a6-00ac-4605-a465-d1b69db9b00a51775d33-9493-4ddb-b4c6-54f29b6c04a4reponame:Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSMinstname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Endividamento e gasto privado: uma abordagem aplicada pós-Keynesiana para o Brasil (2005-2017) |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Private borrowing and expenditure: a post-Keynesian applied approach for Brazil (2005-2017) |
title |
Endividamento e gasto privado: uma abordagem aplicada pós-Keynesiana para o Brasil (2005-2017) |
spellingShingle |
Endividamento e gasto privado: uma abordagem aplicada pós-Keynesiana para o Brasil (2005-2017) Longhi, Giuliano Manera Instabilidade financeira Abordagem "New Cambridge" Consistente entre estoques e fluxos Séries temporais Economia brasileira Financial instability "New Cambridge" approach Stock-flow consistent Time series Brazilian economy CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
title_short |
Endividamento e gasto privado: uma abordagem aplicada pós-Keynesiana para o Brasil (2005-2017) |
title_full |
Endividamento e gasto privado: uma abordagem aplicada pós-Keynesiana para o Brasil (2005-2017) |
title_fullStr |
Endividamento e gasto privado: uma abordagem aplicada pós-Keynesiana para o Brasil (2005-2017) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Endividamento e gasto privado: uma abordagem aplicada pós-Keynesiana para o Brasil (2005-2017) |
title_sort |
Endividamento e gasto privado: uma abordagem aplicada pós-Keynesiana para o Brasil (2005-2017) |
author |
Longhi, Giuliano Manera |
author_facet |
Longhi, Giuliano Manera |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Feistel, Paulo Ricardo |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/9828248768218577 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Rohenkohl, Júlio Eduardo |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/1171683006014352 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Silva, Simone Fioritti |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/8480645142519713 |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/8357434101926890 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Longhi, Giuliano Manera |
contributor_str_mv |
Feistel, Paulo Ricardo Rohenkohl, Júlio Eduardo Silva, Simone Fioritti |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Instabilidade financeira Abordagem "New Cambridge" Consistente entre estoques e fluxos Séries temporais Economia brasileira |
topic |
Instabilidade financeira Abordagem "New Cambridge" Consistente entre estoques e fluxos Séries temporais Economia brasileira Financial instability "New Cambridge" approach Stock-flow consistent Time series Brazilian economy CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Financial instability "New Cambridge" approach Stock-flow consistent Time series Brazilian economy |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
description |
The beginning of the third millennium brought with it a global financial crisis of multiple implications for the economies and for the international financial system. With the collapse, the doubts about the mechanisms of a monetary production economy that, related to the performance of the currency and the importance of credit and financing for the expenditure of families and firms, have changed since the beginning of the century XX to the present, creating processes of possible financial instability. The present work uses a modern post-Keynesian approach based on the "New Cambridge", of stock-flow consistent modeling, which tries to identify how the mismatch, over time, between the real sector and the financial sector of an economy is an important cause for how the modern economic system endogenously gests financial instability. Through an econometric time series modeling, which used data for the Brazilian economy quarterly between 2005 and 2017, the results demonstrate that in this period there was a tendency of families in Brazil to consume more through debt, than through disposable income. While funding is a key element of a modern-day monetary economy, the New Cambridge approach assists to alert that, not only can unsustainable financial processes appear in an economy, but they are persistent and can take a long time to adjust to be overcome - relegating the economy from a more sustained trajectory of growth. Thus, resources are being directed to the financial system instead of the productive system, through the worsening of families and firms‘ financial position, the high public bonds‘ debt, and forms of acquiring resources externally, even though it does not represent a scenario of external vulnerability, are heavily based in financing and through foreign direct investment which does not reinvests itself internally, becoming profit remittances. In the light of the ―New Cambridge‖ approach, the three Brazilian Financial Balances present, therefore, potential for financial instability, restricting economic growth by the financial units‘ adjustment period, in addition to being capable of gestating crises in the future. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2018-12-18T19:02:39Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2018-12-18T19:02:39Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2018-01-31 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
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masterThesis |
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publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/15128 |
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http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/15128 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
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por |
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600300000000 |
dc.relation.confidence.fl_str_mv |
600 |
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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Ciências Sociais e Humanas |
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv |
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia e Desenvolvimento |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
UFSM |
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv |
Brasil |
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Ciências Sociais e Humanas |
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