Análise do ciclo de vida da tecnologia dos veículos com motores de combustão interna e dos veículos eletrificados
Ano de defesa: | 2023 |
---|---|
Autor(a) principal: | |
Orientador(a): | |
Banca de defesa: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Idioma: | por |
Instituição de defesa: |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria
Centro de Tecnologia |
Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Produção
|
Departamento: |
Engenharia de Produção
|
País: |
Brasil
|
Palavras-chave em Português: | |
Palavras-chave em Inglês: | |
Área do conhecimento CNPq: | |
Link de acesso: | http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/29081 |
Resumo: | In the current scenario, about 99.8% of transports are powered by internal combustion engines (ICE). Transport is still responsible for 24% of direct CO2 emissions through the burning of fuels. Presently, efforts have been made to develop electric vehicles, with the aim of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in mobility. Concomitantly, intense research focused at improving the performance and efficiency of ICEs has been carried out. For researchers, politicians and business decision makers, knowing the stage of technology development, trends and factors that influence technology diffusion is essential to make assertive decisions. Therefore, the present study aimed to analyze the technology lifecycle of vehicles with internal combustion engines and electric vehicles. Still, we tried to identify the critical success factors (CSF) for the diffusion of electric vehicles. Through patent data collected at the USPTO (United States Patent Trademark Office) and at the EPO (European Patent Office), the technology life cycle was estimated, using the Logistic model and the Loglet Lab 4 software. The growth rates were estimated for each of the powertrain systems. Also from the documents collected in Scopus and Web of Science databases, through a systematic literature review, the main FCS that influence the diffusion of electric vehicles were gathered. The results showed that the ICE has a survival of about two to three decades until the saturation in the number of patents occurs (expected for 2037-2043). Patent data shows that BEVs (Battery electric vehicles) are the “hot” area of the technology movement, with annual growth rates between 6-7%, causing the greatest research and development (R&D) efforts. BEVs and FCEVs (Fuel cell electric vehicles) showed the highest technology diffusion speeds in 2020. Regardless, electric vehicles still have numerous barriers to their diffusion, in technological, economic, environmental, political, social and marketing aspects. |
id |
UFSM_496c6c57782d57d3eef0b18a287c3a96 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:repositorio.ufsm.br:1/29081 |
network_acronym_str |
UFSM |
network_name_str |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
2023-05-15T13:06:27Z2023-05-15T13:06:27Z2023-03-31http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/29081In the current scenario, about 99.8% of transports are powered by internal combustion engines (ICE). Transport is still responsible for 24% of direct CO2 emissions through the burning of fuels. Presently, efforts have been made to develop electric vehicles, with the aim of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in mobility. Concomitantly, intense research focused at improving the performance and efficiency of ICEs has been carried out. For researchers, politicians and business decision makers, knowing the stage of technology development, trends and factors that influence technology diffusion is essential to make assertive decisions. Therefore, the present study aimed to analyze the technology lifecycle of vehicles with internal combustion engines and electric vehicles. Still, we tried to identify the critical success factors (CSF) for the diffusion of electric vehicles. Through patent data collected at the USPTO (United States Patent Trademark Office) and at the EPO (European Patent Office), the technology life cycle was estimated, using the Logistic model and the Loglet Lab 4 software. The growth rates were estimated for each of the powertrain systems. Also from the documents collected in Scopus and Web of Science databases, through a systematic literature review, the main FCS that influence the diffusion of electric vehicles were gathered. The results showed that the ICE has a survival of about two to three decades until the saturation in the number of patents occurs (expected for 2037-2043). Patent data shows that BEVs (Battery electric vehicles) are the “hot” area of the technology movement, with annual growth rates between 6-7%, causing the greatest research and development (R&D) efforts. BEVs and FCEVs (Fuel cell electric vehicles) showed the highest technology diffusion speeds in 2020. Regardless, electric vehicles still have numerous barriers to their diffusion, in technological, economic, environmental, political, social and marketing aspects.No cenário atual, no mundo, cerca de 99,8% dos meios de transportes são movidos por motores de combustão interna (MCI). O transporte ainda é responsável por 24% das emissões diretas de CO2 através da queima de combustíveis. Atualmente, têmse buscado o desenvolvimento dos veículos elétricos, com o intuito de reduzir as emissões de gases poluentes e causadores do efeito estufa (GEE) na mobilidade. Concomitantemente, intensas pesquisas visando às melhorias de desempenho e eficiência nos MCIs têm sido executadas. Para os pesquisadores, políticos e decisores empresariais, conhecer o estágio de desenvolvimento da tecnologia, as tendências e os fatores que influenciam a difusão da tecnologia, é essencial para tomar decisões assertivas. Portanto, o presente estudo teve como objetivo analisar o ciclo de vida das tecnologias dos veículos com motores de combustão interna e dos veículos elétricos. Ainda, buscou-se identificar os fatores críticos de sucesso (FCS), para difusão dos veículos elétricos. Através de dados de patentes coletados no USPTO (United States Patent Trademark Oficce) e no EPO (European Patent Office) foram estimados o ciclo de vida das tecnologias, com o modelo Logístico e o software Loglet Lab 4. A velocidade de difusão da tecnologia e a taxa de crescimento foram estimadas para cada um dos sistemas de powertrain. A partir dos documentos colhidos nas bases de dados Scopus e Web of Science, através de uma revisão sistemática de literatura, reuniu-se os principais FCS que influenciam a difusão dos veículos elétricos. Os resultados mostraram que o MCI possui uma sobrevida de cerca de duas a três décadas até ocorrer à saturação no número de patentes (prevista para 2037-2043). Os dados de patentes mostram que os BEVs (Battery electric vehicles) são a área “quente” do movimento tecnológico, com taxas de crescimento anuais entre 6-7%, causando os maiores esforços de pesquisa e desenvolvimento (P&D). Os BEVs e FCEVs (Fuel cell electric vehicles) apresentaram as maiores velocidades de difusão da tecnologia, em 2020. Contudo, os veículos elétricos ainda possuem várias barreiras para a sua difusão, em aspectos tecnológicos, econômicos, ambientais, político-sociais e de marketing.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPESporUniversidade Federal de Santa MariaCentro de TecnologiaPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de ProduçãoUFSMBrasilEngenharia de ProduçãoAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessVeículos híbridosVeículos elétricos a bateriaVeículos a célula de combustívelModelo logísticoFatores críticos de sucessoHybrid electric vehicleBattery electric vehicleFuel cell vehicleLogistic modelCritical success factorCNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA DE PRODUCAOAnálise do ciclo de vida da tecnologia dos veículos com motores de combustão interna e dos veículos eletrificadosTechnology life cycle analysis of vehicles with internal combustion engines and electric vehiclesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisMartins, Mario Eduardo Santoshttp://lattes.cnpq.br/4000658451843066Siluk, Julio Cezar MairesseFagundez, Jean Lucca SouzaRoso, Vinícius RückertLanzanova, Thompson Diórdinis MetzkaSari, Rafael Lagohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/6637747450458929Sinigaglia, Tiago300800000005600600600600600600600600e8902ee0-b2a8-404c-a986-19d9ef49283e3feac3d4-f113-4397-be82-722f963cc8dd6c782551-ce67-42e5-baaa-08e1308400cc60fd584f-4fbe-4e49-8e85-7127eaf4b9e092f7da8b-4576-42ca-8a6b-ac62129124e5bd250c84-3de7-4075-89ff-81aee7877c5047a4f931-31f6-4108-b8ea-6902f9a47a12reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSMinstname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMORIGINALTES_PPGEP_2023_SINIGAGLIA_TIAGO.pdfTES_PPGEP_2023_SINIGAGLIA_TIAGO.pdfTese de doutoradoapplication/pdf2514502http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/29081/1/TES_PPGEP_2023_SINIGAGLIA_TIAGO.pdf1751d6b14e1615f01ac759beab273a4cMD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8805http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/29081/2/license_rdf4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81956http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/29081/3/license.txt2f0571ecee68693bd5cd3f17c1e075dfMD531/290812023-05-15 10:06:27.935oai:repositorio.ufsm.br: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 Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/ONGhttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/oai/requestatendimento.sib@ufsm.br||tedebc@gmail.comopendoar:2023-05-15T13:06:27Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Análise do ciclo de vida da tecnologia dos veículos com motores de combustão interna e dos veículos eletrificados |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Technology life cycle analysis of vehicles with internal combustion engines and electric vehicles |
title |
Análise do ciclo de vida da tecnologia dos veículos com motores de combustão interna e dos veículos eletrificados |
spellingShingle |
Análise do ciclo de vida da tecnologia dos veículos com motores de combustão interna e dos veículos eletrificados Sinigaglia, Tiago Veículos híbridos Veículos elétricos a bateria Veículos a célula de combustível Modelo logístico Fatores críticos de sucesso Hybrid electric vehicle Battery electric vehicle Fuel cell vehicle Logistic model Critical success factor CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA DE PRODUCAO |
title_short |
Análise do ciclo de vida da tecnologia dos veículos com motores de combustão interna e dos veículos eletrificados |
title_full |
Análise do ciclo de vida da tecnologia dos veículos com motores de combustão interna e dos veículos eletrificados |
title_fullStr |
Análise do ciclo de vida da tecnologia dos veículos com motores de combustão interna e dos veículos eletrificados |
title_full_unstemmed |
Análise do ciclo de vida da tecnologia dos veículos com motores de combustão interna e dos veículos eletrificados |
title_sort |
Análise do ciclo de vida da tecnologia dos veículos com motores de combustão interna e dos veículos eletrificados |
author |
Sinigaglia, Tiago |
author_facet |
Sinigaglia, Tiago |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Martins, Mario Eduardo Santos |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/4000658451843066 |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv |
Siluk, Julio Cezar Mairesse |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Fagundez, Jean Lucca Souza |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Roso, Vinícius Rückert |
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv |
Lanzanova, Thompson Diórdinis Metzka |
dc.contributor.referee4.fl_str_mv |
Sari, Rafael Lago |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/6637747450458929 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Sinigaglia, Tiago |
contributor_str_mv |
Martins, Mario Eduardo Santos Siluk, Julio Cezar Mairesse Fagundez, Jean Lucca Souza Roso, Vinícius Rückert Lanzanova, Thompson Diórdinis Metzka Sari, Rafael Lago |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Veículos híbridos Veículos elétricos a bateria Veículos a célula de combustível Modelo logístico Fatores críticos de sucesso |
topic |
Veículos híbridos Veículos elétricos a bateria Veículos a célula de combustível Modelo logístico Fatores críticos de sucesso Hybrid electric vehicle Battery electric vehicle Fuel cell vehicle Logistic model Critical success factor CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA DE PRODUCAO |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Hybrid electric vehicle Battery electric vehicle Fuel cell vehicle Logistic model Critical success factor |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA DE PRODUCAO |
description |
In the current scenario, about 99.8% of transports are powered by internal combustion engines (ICE). Transport is still responsible for 24% of direct CO2 emissions through the burning of fuels. Presently, efforts have been made to develop electric vehicles, with the aim of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in mobility. Concomitantly, intense research focused at improving the performance and efficiency of ICEs has been carried out. For researchers, politicians and business decision makers, knowing the stage of technology development, trends and factors that influence technology diffusion is essential to make assertive decisions. Therefore, the present study aimed to analyze the technology lifecycle of vehicles with internal combustion engines and electric vehicles. Still, we tried to identify the critical success factors (CSF) for the diffusion of electric vehicles. Through patent data collected at the USPTO (United States Patent Trademark Office) and at the EPO (European Patent Office), the technology life cycle was estimated, using the Logistic model and the Loglet Lab 4 software. The growth rates were estimated for each of the powertrain systems. Also from the documents collected in Scopus and Web of Science databases, through a systematic literature review, the main FCS that influence the diffusion of electric vehicles were gathered. The results showed that the ICE has a survival of about two to three decades until the saturation in the number of patents occurs (expected for 2037-2043). Patent data shows that BEVs (Battery electric vehicles) are the “hot” area of the technology movement, with annual growth rates between 6-7%, causing the greatest research and development (R&D) efforts. BEVs and FCEVs (Fuel cell electric vehicles) showed the highest technology diffusion speeds in 2020. Regardless, electric vehicles still have numerous barriers to their diffusion, in technological, economic, environmental, political, social and marketing aspects. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2023-05-15T13:06:27Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2023-05-15T13:06:27Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2023-03-31 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
format |
doctoralThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/29081 |
url |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/29081 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
300800000005 |
dc.relation.confidence.fl_str_mv |
600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 |
dc.relation.authority.fl_str_mv |
e8902ee0-b2a8-404c-a986-19d9ef49283e 3feac3d4-f113-4397-be82-722f963cc8dd 6c782551-ce67-42e5-baaa-08e1308400cc 60fd584f-4fbe-4e49-8e85-7127eaf4b9e0 92f7da8b-4576-42ca-8a6b-ac62129124e5 bd250c84-3de7-4075-89ff-81aee7877c50 47a4f931-31f6-4108-b8ea-6902f9a47a12 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Tecnologia |
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv |
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Produção |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
UFSM |
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv |
Brasil |
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv |
Engenharia de Produção |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria Centro de Tecnologia |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM instname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) instacron:UFSM |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
instacron_str |
UFSM |
institution |
UFSM |
reponame_str |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM |
collection |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM |
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/29081/1/TES_PPGEP_2023_SINIGAGLIA_TIAGO.pdf http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/29081/2/license_rdf http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/29081/3/license.txt |
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv |
1751d6b14e1615f01ac759beab273a4c 4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347 2f0571ecee68693bd5cd3f17c1e075df |
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv |
MD5 MD5 MD5 |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
atendimento.sib@ufsm.br||tedebc@gmail.com |
_version_ |
1793240163274457088 |