Investigação do modo sul de precipitação no clima presente e futuro no Rio Grande do Sul
Ano de defesa: | 2010 |
---|---|
Autor(a) principal: | |
Orientador(a): | |
Banca de defesa: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Idioma: | por |
Instituição de defesa: |
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria
|
Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Meteorologia
|
Departamento: |
Meteorologia
|
País: |
BR
|
Palavras-chave em Português: | |
Palavras-chave em Inglês: | |
Área do conhecimento CNPq: | |
Link de acesso: | http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/10253 |
Resumo: | This paper presents a mode of variability of precipitation that influence in southern Brazil, called South Mode. We tried to show that the occurrence of events Mode south of precipitation are related to the occurrence of extreme events of rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul, as storm, flood, hail and drought. Using principal component analysis of daily rainfall data filtered in the band 10/50 days, are found spatial and temporal fields that represent the maximum variance of certain variability, and then are detected modes of precipitation variability. Thus it was possible to determine the mode of variability that appears well set in the Rio Grande do Sul and has core between 25 ° S and 35 ° S latitude and 52 ° W and 62 ° W longitude. This mode presents alternating between positive and negative signals, and these may be related to extreme events. The series of principal components was used to select these events. Principal components larger (smaller) than 1.35 (-1.35) times standard deviations are related to events of extreme wet (dry) of precipitation. The South Mode was calculated for the period from 01/03/1982 to 31/05/2006 for the rainfall real data and for the Regional Model RegCM3 data. On decadal analysis it was concluded that the 80 to 90, 90 and 80 for 2000 to 2000 there was a general increase in the occurrence of these events for both the rainfall data, and to model data. The increase found from 1980 to 2000 was more significant. Shown the importance of South mode for precipitation in the Rio Grande do Sul in the current period, the same methodology was used to model data of future climate. The period used was 01/03/2070 to 31/05/2086 for two different emission scenarios: A2 (said pessimistic) and B2 (optimistic). It was concluded that both the dry and rainy events tend to be more extreme in that period for the two emission scenarios. On decadal analysis, we observed a significant increase in the occurrence of rainfall events when compared to the decades of 2000 and 2070 and 2000 and8 2080 in both scenarios. This paper is divided into six chapters dealing respectively with: a literature review, collection and analysis, occurrence of South Mode in rainfall data, occurrence of South Mode in model data, South Mode in future climate data, synoptic analysis of some events of South Mode, and the final considerations of the author. |
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2010-05-252010-05-252010-03-11PAMPUCH, Luana Albertani. RESERACH METHOD OF SOUTH MODE OF RAINFALL ON PRESENT AND FUTUTE CLIMATE IM RIO GRANDE DO SUL. 2010. 458 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Geociências) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2010.http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/10253This paper presents a mode of variability of precipitation that influence in southern Brazil, called South Mode. We tried to show that the occurrence of events Mode south of precipitation are related to the occurrence of extreme events of rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul, as storm, flood, hail and drought. Using principal component analysis of daily rainfall data filtered in the band 10/50 days, are found spatial and temporal fields that represent the maximum variance of certain variability, and then are detected modes of precipitation variability. Thus it was possible to determine the mode of variability that appears well set in the Rio Grande do Sul and has core between 25 ° S and 35 ° S latitude and 52 ° W and 62 ° W longitude. This mode presents alternating between positive and negative signals, and these may be related to extreme events. The series of principal components was used to select these events. Principal components larger (smaller) than 1.35 (-1.35) times standard deviations are related to events of extreme wet (dry) of precipitation. The South Mode was calculated for the period from 01/03/1982 to 31/05/2006 for the rainfall real data and for the Regional Model RegCM3 data. On decadal analysis it was concluded that the 80 to 90, 90 and 80 for 2000 to 2000 there was a general increase in the occurrence of these events for both the rainfall data, and to model data. The increase found from 1980 to 2000 was more significant. Shown the importance of South mode for precipitation in the Rio Grande do Sul in the current period, the same methodology was used to model data of future climate. The period used was 01/03/2070 to 31/05/2086 for two different emission scenarios: A2 (said pessimistic) and B2 (optimistic). It was concluded that both the dry and rainy events tend to be more extreme in that period for the two emission scenarios. On decadal analysis, we observed a significant increase in the occurrence of rainfall events when compared to the decades of 2000 and 2070 and 2000 and8 2080 in both scenarios. This paper is divided into six chapters dealing respectively with: a literature review, collection and analysis, occurrence of South Mode in rainfall data, occurrence of South Mode in model data, South Mode in future climate data, synoptic analysis of some events of South Mode, and the final considerations of the author.Este trabalho apresenta um modo de variabilidade de precipitação que atua na região sul do Brasil denominado Modo Sul. Procurou-se mostrar que a ocorrência de eventos do Modo Sul de precipitação estão relacionados à ocorrência de eventos extremos de precipitação no Rio Grande do Sul, como vendaval, enchentes, granizo e estiagens. Utilizando a análise de componentes principais em dados de precipitação diária filtrados na banda 10/50 dias são encontrados campos espaciais e temporais que representam a máxima variância de determinadas variabilidades, e neles são detectados Modos de Variabilidade de precipitação. Desta maneira, foi possível determinar este modo de variabilidade que aparece bem configurado na região do Rio Grande do Sul e tem núcleo entre 25°S e 35°S de latitude e 52°W e 62°W de longitude. Este modo apresenta alternância entre sinais positivos e negativos, e estes podem ser relacionados aos eventos extremos. A série de componentes principais foi usada para a escolha desses eventos. Componentes principais maiores (menores) que 1,35 (-1,35) desvios padrões são relacionados aos eventos de extremos chuvosos (secos) de precipitação. O Modo Sul foi calculado para o período de 01/03/1982 à 31/05/2006 para os dados de precipitação real e para dados do Modelo Regional RegCM3. Na análise decadal foi possível concluir que das décadas de 80 para 90, 90 para 2000 e 80 para 2000 em geral ocorreu um aumento na ocorrência desses eventos tanto para os dados de precipitação, quanto para os dados de modelo. O aumento encontrado de 1980 para 2000 foi mais expressivo. Mostrada a importância do Modo Sul para a precipitação no Rio Grande do Sul no período atual, a mesma metodologia foi empregada para dados de modelo de clima futuro. O período utilizado foi de 01/03/2070 à 31/05/2086 para dois diferentes cenários de emissão: A2 (dito pessimista) e B2 (otimista). Concluiu-se que tanto os eventos secos quanto chuvosos tendem a ser mais extremos nesse período para os dois cenários de emissão. Na análise decadal, foi possível observar um aumento considerável na ocorrência de eventos chuvosos quando são comparadas as décadas de 2000 e 2070 e 2000 e 2080 em ambos os cenários. Este trabalho está dividido em seis capítulos tratando respectivamente de: revisão de literatura; de coleta e análise de dados; ocorrência do Modo Sul em dados de precipitação; ocorrência do Modo Sul em dados de modelo; Modo Sul em dados de clima futuro; análise sinótica de alguns eventos do Modo Sul; e das considerações finais da autora.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superiorapplication/pdfporUniversidade Federal de Santa MariaPrograma de Pós-Graduação em MeteorologiaUFSMBRMeteorologiaClimatologiaModo sul de precipitaçãoDesastres naturaisClimatologySouth mode of rainfallNatural desastersCNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIASInvestigação do modo sul de precipitação no clima presente e futuro no Rio Grande do SulReserach method of south mode of rainfall on present and futute climate im Rio Grande do Sulinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisFerraz, Simone Erotildes Teleginskihttp://lattes.cnpq.br/5545006407615789Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio dahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/2492316971242051Acevedo, Otávio Costahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/8696858608013659http://lattes.cnpq.br/0678688957164386Pampuch, Luana Albertani100700000005400300300300500890e04b2-49dc-4fe7-a16e-07665d183a7dad68ea53-5d8f-45d2-ab08-13612aedcfff4b4f7c57-ad06-4428-bc1f-67ebfa537ea9ea185db5-1bdf-4651-9915-96f8102d7ee0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSMinstname:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)instacron:UFSMORIGINALPAMPUCH, LUANA ALBERTONI.pdfapplication/pdf7780840http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/10253/1/PAMPUCH%2c%20LUANA%20ALBERTONI.pdf9774b857cd18dfd726192813398a1594MD51TEXTPAMPUCH, LUANA ALBERTONI.pdf.txtPAMPUCH, LUANA ALBERTONI.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain451961http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/10253/2/PAMPUCH%2c%20LUANA%20ALBERTONI.pdf.txt5e0479a8a10525fe56039b8630d2161fMD52THUMBNAILPAMPUCH, LUANA ALBERTONI.pdf.jpgPAMPUCH, LUANA ALBERTONI.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg5449http://repositorio.ufsm.br/bitstream/1/10253/3/PAMPUCH%2c%20LUANA%20ALBERTONI.pdf.jpgd73bd3e7b1afb4f4663bbc6ff4292fcdMD531/102532021-10-26 10:28:31.354oai:repositorio.ufsm.br:1/10253Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/ONGhttps://repositorio.ufsm.br/oai/requestatendimento.sib@ufsm.br||tedebc@gmail.comopendoar:2021-10-26T13:28:31Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UFSM - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Investigação do modo sul de precipitação no clima presente e futuro no Rio Grande do Sul |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Reserach method of south mode of rainfall on present and futute climate im Rio Grande do Sul |
title |
Investigação do modo sul de precipitação no clima presente e futuro no Rio Grande do Sul |
spellingShingle |
Investigação do modo sul de precipitação no clima presente e futuro no Rio Grande do Sul Pampuch, Luana Albertani Climatologia Modo sul de precipitação Desastres naturais Climatology South mode of rainfall Natural desasters CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS |
title_short |
Investigação do modo sul de precipitação no clima presente e futuro no Rio Grande do Sul |
title_full |
Investigação do modo sul de precipitação no clima presente e futuro no Rio Grande do Sul |
title_fullStr |
Investigação do modo sul de precipitação no clima presente e futuro no Rio Grande do Sul |
title_full_unstemmed |
Investigação do modo sul de precipitação no clima presente e futuro no Rio Grande do Sul |
title_sort |
Investigação do modo sul de precipitação no clima presente e futuro no Rio Grande do Sul |
author |
Pampuch, Luana Albertani |
author_facet |
Pampuch, Luana Albertani |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Ferraz, Simone Erotildes Teleginski |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/5545006407615789 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio da |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/2492316971242051 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Acevedo, Otávio Costa |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/8696858608013659 |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/0678688957164386 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Pampuch, Luana Albertani |
contributor_str_mv |
Ferraz, Simone Erotildes Teleginski Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio da Acevedo, Otávio Costa |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Climatologia Modo sul de precipitação Desastres naturais |
topic |
Climatologia Modo sul de precipitação Desastres naturais Climatology South mode of rainfall Natural desasters CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Climatology South mode of rainfall Natural desasters |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS |
description |
This paper presents a mode of variability of precipitation that influence in southern Brazil, called South Mode. We tried to show that the occurrence of events Mode south of precipitation are related to the occurrence of extreme events of rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul, as storm, flood, hail and drought. Using principal component analysis of daily rainfall data filtered in the band 10/50 days, are found spatial and temporal fields that represent the maximum variance of certain variability, and then are detected modes of precipitation variability. Thus it was possible to determine the mode of variability that appears well set in the Rio Grande do Sul and has core between 25 ° S and 35 ° S latitude and 52 ° W and 62 ° W longitude. This mode presents alternating between positive and negative signals, and these may be related to extreme events. The series of principal components was used to select these events. Principal components larger (smaller) than 1.35 (-1.35) times standard deviations are related to events of extreme wet (dry) of precipitation. The South Mode was calculated for the period from 01/03/1982 to 31/05/2006 for the rainfall real data and for the Regional Model RegCM3 data. On decadal analysis it was concluded that the 80 to 90, 90 and 80 for 2000 to 2000 there was a general increase in the occurrence of these events for both the rainfall data, and to model data. The increase found from 1980 to 2000 was more significant. Shown the importance of South mode for precipitation in the Rio Grande do Sul in the current period, the same methodology was used to model data of future climate. The period used was 01/03/2070 to 31/05/2086 for two different emission scenarios: A2 (said pessimistic) and B2 (optimistic). It was concluded that both the dry and rainy events tend to be more extreme in that period for the two emission scenarios. On decadal analysis, we observed a significant increase in the occurrence of rainfall events when compared to the decades of 2000 and 2070 and 2000 and8 2080 in both scenarios. This paper is divided into six chapters dealing respectively with: a literature review, collection and analysis, occurrence of South Mode in rainfall data, occurrence of South Mode in model data, South Mode in future climate data, synoptic analysis of some events of South Mode, and the final considerations of the author. |
publishDate |
2010 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2010-05-25 |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2010-05-25 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2010-03-11 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
PAMPUCH, Luana Albertani. RESERACH METHOD OF SOUTH MODE OF RAINFALL ON PRESENT AND FUTUTE CLIMATE IM RIO GRANDE DO SUL. 2010. 458 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Geociências) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2010. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/10253 |
identifier_str_mv |
PAMPUCH, Luana Albertani. RESERACH METHOD OF SOUTH MODE OF RAINFALL ON PRESENT AND FUTUTE CLIMATE IM RIO GRANDE DO SUL. 2010. 458 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Geociências) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2010. |
url |
http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/10253 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
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por |
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100700000005 |
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Universidade Federal de Santa Maria |
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UFSM |
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Meteorologia |
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Universidade Federal de Santa Maria |
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