Uso de um modelo regional de clima-vegetação para estimativa dos componentes da evapotranspiração sob condições climáticas atuais e futuras de aquecimento global

• Ano de defesa: 2009
• Autor(a) principal: Cardoso, Geraldo Magela
• Orientador(a): Justino, Flávio Barbosa
• Banca de defesa: Nunes, Edson Luis , Hamakawa, Paulo José
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Viçosa
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Mestrado em Meteorologia Agrícola
• Departamento: Agrometeorologia; Climatologia; Micrometeorologia
• País: BR
• Palavras-chave em Português: Mudanças climáticas; Evapotranspiração; Análise harmômica; Aquecimento global
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Climatic changes; Evapotranspiration; Harmonic analysis; Global warming
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS::METEOROLOGIA::CLIMATOLOGIA
• Link de acesso: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/5235

This study objective was to analyze the space distribution of components of the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) in Brazil and afterwards the weather variability by applying the technique of harmonic analysis, given for this was initially an analysis of variance, phase and amplitude for the present time (1980-2000), subsequently made a projection of future time (2080-2100), based on scenario A2 of intergovernmental panel to Climatic changes. The equation used was Penman-Monteith sampled by Food and Agriculture and Organization of the United Nations (FAO) 1998. The simulations were conducted with the clime regional model (MM5), attached to a model of potential vegetation (MVP). The results show that under the actual conditions the model presented good performance of the annual cycle when compared to the ERA-40 and CRU data. The aero dynamical and radioactive terms presented an annual cycle that is dominant in the Amazonian and Brazil's south regions, while in the southeast region the semester cycle has a higher notability. The biggest variations at ETo amplitude were identified in northeastern semiarid and in the Brazil's extreme south. The changes in ETo due to the global warmness were maximum at the Brazil's central region and in the Amazonian region. In future conditions, the annual cycle showed itself dominant in Brazil's greatest part, presenting dry and rainy well defined weathers. Still was observed that under global warmness conditions the variations of aerodynamic term become more important than the variations of the irradiative terms to the total ETo.