Análise da Competitividade e dos Preços da Celulose e da Madeira de Eucalipto no Brasil

• Ano de defesa: 2010
• Autor(a) principal: Soares, Naisy Silva
• Orientador(a): Silva, Márcio Lopes da
• Banca de defesa: Lima, João Eustáquio de , Rezende, José Luiz Pereira de
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Viçosa
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Doutorado em Ciência Florestal
• Departamento: Manejo Florestal; Meio Ambiente e Conservação da Natureza; Silvicultura; Tecnologia e Utilização de
• País: BR
• Palavras-chave em Português: Matriz de análise política; Co-integração; Previsão de preço; Economia florestal
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Policy analysis matrix; Co-integration; Price forecasting; Forestry economy
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::RECURSOS FLORESTAIS E ENGENHARIA FLORESTAL::MANEJO FLORESTAL
• Link de acesso: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/547

The wood pulp and paper sector is especially important in the forest sector and a boost for the Brazilian economy, generating income, jobs, taxes, and exchange value. Eventhough this segment is competitive, it can t warranty that its expansion is assured in the future, due the international competition and the absence of appropriate politics for it development and for the development of the main production input: eucalyptus wood. Like this, the aim of this work was to analyze wood pulp and Eucalyptus wood competitiveness and price in Brazil, using public policy and competitively evaluation models and econometrics, such as: policy analysis matrix (PAM), unit root and Johansen co-integration tests, vector error correction model (VECM) and the Box and Jenkins methodology. Studies of this type are extremely relevant at the optics of competitiveness gains and expansion of the segment, because they supply subsidies for formulation of public politics, planning of the production, commercialization and prediction. Secondary data from November 2002 to July 2009 were used. Based on the results obtained, it was possible to concluded that, the production of wood pulp and Eucalyptus in Brazil has been suffering with the implementation of public policies distorting, but it still profitable and competitive, a large percentage of wood pulp price variation in the United States, in the long run, was transmitted to the domestic market, but those markets were not perfectly integrated, i.e. the Law of One Price was not perfectly verified for the wood pulp market. Although the eucalyptus sawn wood markets in Sorocaba (SP), Bauru (SP) and Marília (SP) were spatially integrated through prices, i.e., a long term relationship existed between them, the Law of One Price was not verified. On the other hand, the eucalyptus wood markets in Itapeva (SP) and Bauru (SP) were not spatially integrated; and the ARIMA (0,1,1), ARIMA (0,1,4) and ARIMA (2,1,2) models were found to be efficient, presenting satisfactory projections for wood pulp price forecasting in São Paulo, for eucalyptus wood in Itapeva (SP) and eucalyptus wood in Bauru (SP), respectively.