Globalização financera, inserção externa e risco-Brasil

• Ano de defesa: 2006
• Autor(a) principal: D'almeida, Alexandre Rodrigues
• Orientador(a): Silva, José Maria Alves da
• Banca de defesa: Fernandes, Cândido Luiz de Lima , Corrêa, Vanessa Petrelli , Silva, Orlando Monteiro da
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Federal de Viçosa
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Doutorado em Economia Aplicada
• Departamento: Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos
• País: BR
• Palavras-chave em Português: Globalização financeira; Inserção externa; Risco-Brasil
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Financial globalization; External insertion; Brazil-risk
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL::RELACOES DO COMERCIO; POLITICA COMERCIAL; INTEGRACAO ECONOMICA
• Link de acesso: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/166

In the 1980s, capitalism underwent profound institutional transformations brought about by market deregulation and greater capital movement freedom, leading to a process of intense domestic financial market integration among the countries, increasing global finance instability. During this period, Brazil suffered a chronic inflationary process exacerbated by an exchange crisis. A greater international liquidity in the following decade allowed the adoption of neo liberal stabilization programs, based on privatization programs and the use of the exchange rate as a nominal anchor, besides promoting a profound commercial and financial opening, leading to increasing current transaction deficits and, consequently, greater vulnerability to the external shocks in the mid 1990s.The country was hit both by the Asian and Russian crises in the late 1990s and by the domestic and international financial and political disturbances from 2000 to 2002. Recently, a series of events has contributed to an extremely favorable international scenario: strong world economy growth, intense international trade development and improvement in the terms of exchange of primary products and intensive work and energy manufactured products. Such facts allowed Brazil to obtain superavits in current transactions since 2003, when a movement of recurrent decline of its countryrisk initiated. Today, this risk is among the lowest, historically: recent literature on Brazil-risk is based on two views, both concentrated in the macroeconomic aspect: one represented by the fiscal sustainability model, considers Brazil-risk as being caused by high interests and its advocates favor the adoption of a passive exchange policy and primary superavit expansion; the other, represented by the optic of external solvability, considers high interests to be the cause of Brazil-risk and its advocates propose an active exchange policy and interest rate reduction. The main objective of this work was, using appropriate econometric models, to test the hypothesis that Brazil-risk is strongly influenced by the volatile capital flows, characterizing a strong dependence on exogenous factors instead of being determined by an internal economic foundation. The results suggest that international capital flow first affects domestic interest rates, which, in turn, end up by affecting the country s risk. This is a criticism both to the fiscal sustainability model and the external solvability view, for failing to consider the causality of Brazil-risk in their analyses, i.e., that it is fundamentally determined by outside forces. Thus, to maintain the current low Brazil-risk, analysis must not only concentrate in macroeconomic issues of exchange policy and causality between interest rates and Brazil-risk, but it should also take into account the historical policy referring to the subordinate way Brazil achieved its economic integration into the world economy, guided by the interests of the developed countries.