Modelo gravitacional aplicado a bens agrícolas: o caso das exportações brasileiras de açúcar
Ano de defesa: | 2021 |
---|---|
Autor(a) principal: | |
Orientador(a): | |
Banca de defesa: | , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Idioma: | por |
Instituição de defesa: |
Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná
Toledo |
Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Regional e Agronegócio
|
Departamento: |
Centro de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
|
País: |
Brasil
|
Palavras-chave em Português: | |
Palavras-chave em Inglês: | |
Área do conhecimento CNPq: | |
Link de acesso: | https://tede.unioeste.br/handle/tede/5950 |
Resumo: | This work aims to analyze the evolution and methodological alternatives of the quanti- tative method called “gravitational model of international trade”, when applied to help explain the trade of agricultural goods. Agricultural goods have specific features in their production processes, associated with locations and production factors, especially land and weather conditions. Therefore, they cannot be treated in the same way as manufactured goods, which can have their production process and production factors allocated and relocated to any part of the globe, allowing for a better adjustment of production processes, as recommended by the international division of labor. The greater rigidity of production factors for agricultural goods is a characteristic described in international trade theory and which has been relegated in the application of the gravitational model, reducing the explanatory capacity of the model when applied and, consequently, increasing the possibility of incurring in trade errors. magnitude, statistical significance and interpretation of marginal effects when assessing which and how much factors impact unilateral or bilateral trade flows. The first part of this work makes a historical and theoretical survey of the gravitational model, its different applications and the adaptations adopted to encompass the various characteristics of international trade, whether the production process, legislation, trade agreements, transport costs, among others . The research covers more than 50 years of history, from the emergence of the model, its evolution process and its consolidation as an analytical tool. The second part consists of a literature review of works that applied the model to the analysis of international trade specifically to agricultural goods, focusing on the pattern of method- ological adaptations - when there were -, and on the justifications for these adaptations. In the last part of this work, a methodological proposal is made, derived from the factor endowment model, which can be used in the application of the model in the study of unilateral or bilateral trade in agricultural goods, including variables that minimally reflect the nature of the agricultural process and that are aligned with regard to specific factors for the analysis of international trade. The conclusion is unfavorable to the application of the gravitational model for agricultural goods, there is no convergence in the literature for the adoption of characteristics of these products. Statistical problems such as the one-sidedness of flows, the absence of trade in specific periods, as well as the presence of zero or null values reduce the robustness of the model. |
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Alves, Lucir Reinaldohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/3033207856459986Schneider, Mirian Beatrizhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/9335877867055216Lima, Jandir Ferrera dehttp://lattes.cnpq.br/8590492041554583Raiher, Augusta Pelinskihttp://lattes.cnpq.br/2807884379340559Almeida, Rubiane Daniele Cardoso dehttp://lattes.cnpq.br/2430643726635050Alves, Lucir Reinaldohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/3033207856459986http://lattes.cnpq.br/6235823018054652Corrêa, Marco Aurélio Kasmin2022-04-01T22:52:42Z2021-11-26CORRÊA, Marco Aurélio kasmin. Modelo gravitacional aplicado a bens agrícolas: o caso das exportações brasileiras de açúcar. 2021. 138 f. Tese (Doutorado em Desenvolvimento Regional e Agronegócio) - Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná, Toledo, 2021.https://tede.unioeste.br/handle/tede/5950This work aims to analyze the evolution and methodological alternatives of the quanti- tative method called “gravitational model of international trade”, when applied to help explain the trade of agricultural goods. Agricultural goods have specific features in their production processes, associated with locations and production factors, especially land and weather conditions. Therefore, they cannot be treated in the same way as manufactured goods, which can have their production process and production factors allocated and relocated to any part of the globe, allowing for a better adjustment of production processes, as recommended by the international division of labor. The greater rigidity of production factors for agricultural goods is a characteristic described in international trade theory and which has been relegated in the application of the gravitational model, reducing the explanatory capacity of the model when applied and, consequently, increasing the possibility of incurring in trade errors. magnitude, statistical significance and interpretation of marginal effects when assessing which and how much factors impact unilateral or bilateral trade flows. The first part of this work makes a historical and theoretical survey of the gravitational model, its different applications and the adaptations adopted to encompass the various characteristics of international trade, whether the production process, legislation, trade agreements, transport costs, among others . The research covers more than 50 years of history, from the emergence of the model, its evolution process and its consolidation as an analytical tool. The second part consists of a literature review of works that applied the model to the analysis of international trade specifically to agricultural goods, focusing on the pattern of method- ological adaptations - when there were -, and on the justifications for these adaptations. In the last part of this work, a methodological proposal is made, derived from the factor endowment model, which can be used in the application of the model in the study of unilateral or bilateral trade in agricultural goods, including variables that minimally reflect the nature of the agricultural process and that are aligned with regard to specific factors for the analysis of international trade. The conclusion is unfavorable to the application of the gravitational model for agricultural goods, there is no convergence in the literature for the adoption of characteristics of these products. Statistical problems such as the one-sidedness of flows, the absence of trade in specific periods, as well as the presence of zero or null values reduce the robustness of the model.Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a evolução e alternativas metodológicas do método quantitativo denominado “modelo gravitacional de comércio internacional”, quando aplicado para auxiliar na explicação do comércio de bens agrícolas. Os bens agrícolas têm especificidades em seus processos produtivos, associadas aos locais e aos fatores de produção, sobretudo à terra e à condição climática. Não podem, portanto, ser tratados da mesma forma que bens manufaturados, que podem ter seu processo produtivo e fatores de produção alocados e realocados para qualquer parte do globo, permitindo um melhor ajuste dos processos produtivos, como preconiza a divisão internacional do trabalho. A maior rigidez dos fatores de produção para bens agrícolas é uma característica descrita na teoria de comércio internacional e que tem sido relegada na aplicação do modelo gravitacional, reduzindo a capacidade explicativa do modelo quando aplicado e, consequentemente, ampliando a possibilidade de incorrer em erros de magnitude, significância estatística e interpretação dos efeitos marginais ao avaliar quais e quanto os fatores impactam nos fluxos unilaterais ou bilaterais de comércio. A primeira parte deste trabalho faz um levantamento histórico e teórico do modelo gravitacional, suas diferentes aplicações e as adaptações adotadas para abarcar as várias características do comércio internacional, seja do processo produtivo, da legislação, dos acordos comerciais, dos custos de transporte, entre outros. A pesquisa contempla mais de 50 anos de história, desde o surgimento do modelo, seu processo de evolução e sua consolidação enquanto instrumental de análise. A segunda parte consiste em uma revisão bibliográfica de trabalhos que aplicaram o modelo para a análise do comércio internacional, especificamente à bens agrícolas, e focam no padrão de adaptações metodológicas - quando houve -, e nas justificativas dessas adaptações. Na última parte deste trabalho faz-se uma proposta metodológica derivada do modelo de dotação de fatores, passível de ser utilizada na aplicação do modelo no estudo do comércio unilateral ou bilateral de bens agrícolas, incluindo variáveis que reflitam minimamente a natureza do processo agrícola e que estejam alinhadas no que tange a fatores específicos para análise do comércio internacional. A conclusão é desfavorável à aplicação do modelo gravitacional para bens agrícolas, não há na literatura convergência para a adoção de características desses produtos. Problemas estatísticos como a unilateralidade dos fluxos, ausência de comércio em períodos pontuais, assim como a presença de valores zeros ou nulos reduzem a robustez do modelo.Submitted by Marilene Donadel (marilene.donadel@unioeste.br) on 2022-04-01T22:52:42Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Marco_Kasmin_2021.pdf: 8389896 bytes, checksum: 1291e4be39415706ab3855231cd30f16 (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2022-04-01T22:52:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marco_Kasmin_2021.pdf: 8389896 bytes, checksum: 1291e4be39415706ab3855231cd30f16 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2021-11-26application/pdfpor-2624803687637593200500Universidade Estadual do Oeste do ParanáToledoPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Regional e AgronegócioUNIOESTEBrasilCentro de Ciências Sociais AplicadasModelo gravitacionalBens agrícolasMetodologiaComércio internacionalGravity modelAgricultural goodsMetodologyInternational tradeCRESCIMENTO, FLUTUACOES E PLANEJAMENTO ECONOMICO::CRESCIMENTO E DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONOMICOModelo gravitacional aplicado a bens agrícolas: o caso das exportações brasileiras de açúcarGravitational model applied to agricultural goods: the case of Brazilian sugar exports.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis-80635607242807459196006006008872935161184826606-9126689050926809274info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UNIOESTEinstname:Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE)instacron:UNIOESTEORIGINALMarco_Kasmin_Correa_2021.pdfMarco_Kasmin_Correa_2021.pdfapplication/pdf2324199http://tede.unioeste.br:8080/tede/bitstream/tede/5950/2/Marco_Kasmin_Correa_2021.pdf0a69019f6cae55be0e58e0efd5a04885MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82165http://tede.unioeste.br:8080/tede/bitstream/tede/5950/1/license.txtbd3efa91386c1718a7f26a329fdcb468MD51tede/59502022-04-13 20:22:40.304oai:tede.unioeste.br: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Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttp://tede.unioeste.br/PUBhttp://tede.unioeste.br/oai/requestbiblioteca.repositorio@unioeste.bropendoar:2022-04-13T23:22:40Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UNIOESTE - Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE)false |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Modelo gravitacional aplicado a bens agrícolas: o caso das exportações brasileiras de açúcar |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Gravitational model applied to agricultural goods: the case of Brazilian sugar exports. |
title |
Modelo gravitacional aplicado a bens agrícolas: o caso das exportações brasileiras de açúcar |
spellingShingle |
Modelo gravitacional aplicado a bens agrícolas: o caso das exportações brasileiras de açúcar Corrêa, Marco Aurélio Kasmin Modelo gravitacional Bens agrícolas Metodologia Comércio internacional Gravity model Agricultural goods Metodology International trade CRESCIMENTO, FLUTUACOES E PLANEJAMENTO ECONOMICO::CRESCIMENTO E DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONOMICO |
title_short |
Modelo gravitacional aplicado a bens agrícolas: o caso das exportações brasileiras de açúcar |
title_full |
Modelo gravitacional aplicado a bens agrícolas: o caso das exportações brasileiras de açúcar |
title_fullStr |
Modelo gravitacional aplicado a bens agrícolas: o caso das exportações brasileiras de açúcar |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelo gravitacional aplicado a bens agrícolas: o caso das exportações brasileiras de açúcar |
title_sort |
Modelo gravitacional aplicado a bens agrícolas: o caso das exportações brasileiras de açúcar |
author |
Corrêa, Marco Aurélio Kasmin |
author_facet |
Corrêa, Marco Aurélio Kasmin |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Alves, Lucir Reinaldo |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/3033207856459986 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Schneider, Mirian Beatriz |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/9335877867055216 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Lima, Jandir Ferrera de |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/8590492041554583 |
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv |
Raiher, Augusta Pelinski |
dc.contributor.referee3Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/2807884379340559 |
dc.contributor.referee4.fl_str_mv |
Almeida, Rubiane Daniele Cardoso de |
dc.contributor.referee4Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/2430643726635050 |
dc.contributor.referee5.fl_str_mv |
Alves, Lucir Reinaldo |
dc.contributor.referee5Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/3033207856459986 |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/6235823018054652 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Corrêa, Marco Aurélio Kasmin |
contributor_str_mv |
Alves, Lucir Reinaldo Schneider, Mirian Beatriz Lima, Jandir Ferrera de Raiher, Augusta Pelinski Almeida, Rubiane Daniele Cardoso de Alves, Lucir Reinaldo |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Modelo gravitacional Bens agrícolas Metodologia Comércio internacional |
topic |
Modelo gravitacional Bens agrícolas Metodologia Comércio internacional Gravity model Agricultural goods Metodology International trade CRESCIMENTO, FLUTUACOES E PLANEJAMENTO ECONOMICO::CRESCIMENTO E DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONOMICO |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Gravity model Agricultural goods Metodology International trade |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CRESCIMENTO, FLUTUACOES E PLANEJAMENTO ECONOMICO::CRESCIMENTO E DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONOMICO |
description |
This work aims to analyze the evolution and methodological alternatives of the quanti- tative method called “gravitational model of international trade”, when applied to help explain the trade of agricultural goods. Agricultural goods have specific features in their production processes, associated with locations and production factors, especially land and weather conditions. Therefore, they cannot be treated in the same way as manufactured goods, which can have their production process and production factors allocated and relocated to any part of the globe, allowing for a better adjustment of production processes, as recommended by the international division of labor. The greater rigidity of production factors for agricultural goods is a characteristic described in international trade theory and which has been relegated in the application of the gravitational model, reducing the explanatory capacity of the model when applied and, consequently, increasing the possibility of incurring in trade errors. magnitude, statistical significance and interpretation of marginal effects when assessing which and how much factors impact unilateral or bilateral trade flows. The first part of this work makes a historical and theoretical survey of the gravitational model, its different applications and the adaptations adopted to encompass the various characteristics of international trade, whether the production process, legislation, trade agreements, transport costs, among others . The research covers more than 50 years of history, from the emergence of the model, its evolution process and its consolidation as an analytical tool. The second part consists of a literature review of works that applied the model to the analysis of international trade specifically to agricultural goods, focusing on the pattern of method- ological adaptations - when there were -, and on the justifications for these adaptations. In the last part of this work, a methodological proposal is made, derived from the factor endowment model, which can be used in the application of the model in the study of unilateral or bilateral trade in agricultural goods, including variables that minimally reflect the nature of the agricultural process and that are aligned with regard to specific factors for the analysis of international trade. The conclusion is unfavorable to the application of the gravitational model for agricultural goods, there is no convergence in the literature for the adoption of characteristics of these products. Statistical problems such as the one-sidedness of flows, the absence of trade in specific periods, as well as the presence of zero or null values reduce the robustness of the model. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2021-11-26 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2022-04-01T22:52:42Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
format |
doctoralThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
CORRÊA, Marco Aurélio kasmin. Modelo gravitacional aplicado a bens agrícolas: o caso das exportações brasileiras de açúcar. 2021. 138 f. Tese (Doutorado em Desenvolvimento Regional e Agronegócio) - Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná, Toledo, 2021. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://tede.unioeste.br/handle/tede/5950 |
identifier_str_mv |
CORRÊA, Marco Aurélio kasmin. Modelo gravitacional aplicado a bens agrícolas: o caso das exportações brasileiras de açúcar. 2021. 138 f. Tese (Doutorado em Desenvolvimento Regional e Agronegócio) - Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná, Toledo, 2021. |
url |
https://tede.unioeste.br/handle/tede/5950 |
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por |
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por |
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600 600 600 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
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Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná Toledo |
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Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Regional e Agronegócio |
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UNIOESTE |
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Brasil |
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Centro de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas |
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Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná Toledo |
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repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
biblioteca.repositorio@unioeste.br |
_version_ |
1801124700820078592 |