A ocorrência de secas meteorológicas no Estado do Paraná: utilizando dados históricos e simulados

• Ano de defesa: 2017
• Autor(a) principal: Quadros, Luciana Espíndula de
• Orientador(a): Gomes, Benedito Martins
• Banca de defesa: Rezende, Roberto , Frigo, Jiam Pires , Mello, Eloy Lemos de , Guimarães, Ana Tereza Bittencourt
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná; Cascavel
• Programa de Pós-Graduação: Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Agrícola
• Departamento: Centro de Ciências Exatas e Tecnológicas
• País: Brasil
• Palavras-chave em Português: Variabilidade de precipitação; Déficit de precipitação; Mudanças climáticas; Índice padronizado de seca; Cenários futuros
• Palavras-chave em Inglês: Variability of precipitation; Precipitation deficits; Climate changes; Standardized drought index; Future scenarios
• Área do conhecimento CNPq: ENGENHARIA SANITARIA::RECURSOS HIDRICOS
• Link de acesso: http://tede.unioeste.br/handle/tede/3079

This research aims to show meteorological drought occurrences in Paraná State and to present possible future scenarios concerning this extreme weather. There was some requirement to understand better the rainfall patterns in Paraná State when data were analyzed at first, since there were an extensive series of historical precipitation data, from 1980 to 2010 and simulated data by the global model MIROC5 nestled with the Eta regional model, for the future until 2050. The first paper aims to detect analyze variability and precipitation trend in Paraná. Non-parametric tests were applied to detect precipitation trends as well as compare data from historical series with future data. The results have called the researcher’s attention due to the great variability and significant changes in the average monthly precipitation that can occurred in the studied State. Secondly, the extreme drought theme was approached based on the historical series from 1980 to 2015. The second paper aims to analyze variability and future scenarios of drought in Paraná State, using the standardized drought index. The results show that, although there is an increasing trend of precipitation in the State, there is also a change concerning the drought scenario, which warns of a possible decrease in water availability, especially in the Metropolitan mesoregion. Changes in water resources management policies would be interesting to help future mitigation actions of this phenomenon.