Electricity generation in Brazil: social, economic, and environmental perspectives through statistical and optimization models.

• Ano de defesa: 2021
• Autor(a) principal: Oliveira, Lucas Lyrio de
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: eng
• Instituição de defesa: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
• Palavras-chave em Português: Brazilian electricity system; Electricity supply; Fontes renováveis de energia; Fornecimento de eletricidade; Generation expansion planning; Planejamento da expansão de geração; Renewable energy sources; Sistemas elétricos
• Link de acesso: https://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/3/3136/tde-27052022-095310/

Depletion of fossil fuels, deforestation, climate change, industrialization of developing countries, population growth, interactions between society and energy vectors, and governments efforts to guarantee affordable electricity prices to their populations are some of the factors that have motivated studies focused on the expansion of energy systems. These systems present complex factors and processes such as obtention of primary energy sources, energy conversion processes, market regulation, consumers behavior, infrastructure costs, generation costs, and supply and demand uncertainties. Under this context, statistical and optimization-based techniques have enabled researchers to better comprehend the role that energy plays on society, economy, and environment. Taking Brazil as a case study, this thesis investigates alternatives for energy use expansion, particularly in the power sector. Risks related to generation and transmission costs are studied under the light of portfolio theory. Through a new modelling framework that integrates an agent-based model with a portfolio theory-based model, impacts of second-generation ethanol production and land use constraints for biomass cultivation are assessed with respect to bioelectricity generation. Moreover, a statistical analysis based on K-means algorithm and hypothesis testing is conducted to investigate relations between sugarcane expansion, which is the main source for bioelectricity generation in Brazil, and human development. Also, a hierarchical multi-period and multiregion optimization modelling framework capable of dealing with uncertainties on renewable generation and cost minimization is applied. Results point that the expansion of bioelectricity is preferred among other thermopower sources; however, limited availability of sugarcane bagasse may reduce its expansion, mainly under a scenario where second-generation ethanol is produced in scale. From the socioeconomic perspective, it is evidenced that sugarcane investors express preference to locate their mills where human development is higher but benefits from sugarcane activities to local population is unclear. Finally, it is shown that the use of renewable technologies in the power sector is beneficial for both the environment and economical spheres; however, emissions reduction targets will not be achieved without new policies to accelerate their expansion.