A cross-country analysis on unemployment: past, present and a scenario-based foresight into the future

• Ano de defesa: 2024
• Autor(a) principal: Alves, Jardel Augusto Gomes Rodrigues
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: eng
• Instituição de defesa: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
• Palavras-chave em Português: Forecast; Foresight; BRICS; Desemprego; Forescast; Labour market; Mercado de trabalho; Taxas de desemprego; Unemployment; Unemployment rates
• Link de acesso: https://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12139/tde-18072024-094002/

Following multiple studies approach this thesis has as its main objective a proposition of a scenario-based foresight for the unemployment rates in a cross-country analysis, that have as main scope Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the BRICS countries. This purpose of research and the scenarios proposed, as well the path to the building of them, will come to answer the research question: How could unemployment rates evolve in a 10-year forecasting horizon for BRICS countries? Two studies precede, our scenario- based foresight. First, a bibliometric analysis is applied to identify the emerging topics on unemployment-related academic literature. From this study we extract some themes that could be used as possible determinants that could explain unemployment rates composition. Second study builds-up from the first one, having some potential determinants for unemployment we use a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to identify which of determinants are more influential on unemployment rates configuration. From these studies findings, we move forward refining our scope of analysis to BRICS nations. Using each countrys historical unemployment rates, we apply quantitative forecasting methods, namely: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Exponential Smoothing Technique (ETS), and Seasonal and Trend Decomposing using Loess (STL). Using these methods, we forecast possible future unemployment levels in a 10-years into the future timespan. Results extracted from each method are the basis to the qualitative scenario forecasting technique that is used to present three potential scenarios for unemployment rates in BRICS countries in a 10-years into the future. From these scenarios and throughout all analyses we present and discuss in this thesis, it is hoped that we may advance academic research exploring a not usual scope of unemployment-related studies whereas we may offer to BRICS policy- and decision-makers some anticipation about what might come into their futures regarding unemployment, labour market, and labour-relationships in order to enable a better informed policies proposition that could envision a better future for all those interested economic and socially involved.